Once again I find myself on starting my season predictions post by noting that there isn’t one good reason why I should be making them, nor one good reason why you should pay any attention to them. Why would you want to read what I think might possibly (but not probably) transpire over the course of five months of regular-season and post-season play in a professional sport in which it’s hard enough to predict what might happen over the next five days?<\/p>\n
Let’s fact it: people who know a ton more than I do about pro football can’t get this stuff right. My chances of doing anything but stumbling into the odd lucky prediction are zero. If I had my head screwed on straight, I’d find something more productive to do with my time. You, too.<\/p>\n
And yet here I still am. And here you still are. Go figure.<\/p>\n
So let’s get on with this.<\/p>\n
Regular Season Records<\/b>
As with last year, I’m not gonna try to predict a final record for every team, because that’s too foolish an endeavor even for me. I will, however, tag a range of wins that I think each team is capable of (because, somehow, the avoidance of specificity actually makes me feel less like I’m wasting my time — and yours). So here’s that, division by division.<\/p>\n
AFC East<\/b><\/p>\n
New England, 13-15
Even with a depleted defense to open the season, it’s hard to imagine this team losing very many games. But no one goes 16-0.<\/p>\n
NY Jets, 6-8
Can’t see the Jets not taking a step back from last season. There’s no one to surprise.<\/p>\n
Buffalo, 5-7
Denver, at Pittsburgh, at New England, NY Jets and Dallas before the bye, Baltimore immediately after it. That’s a bitch of a way to open a season, especially when you’ve got no defense. And where go you from 1-5?<\/p>\n
Miami, 3-5
The Dolphins get a nice trip to London out of this season. So they’ve got that going for them, which is nice.<\/p>\n
AFC North<\/b><\/p>\n
Baltimore, 10-13
This team was good last year when Steve McNair didn’t really know the offense.<\/p>\n
Cincinnati, 9-11
In the end, you still have to be able to play defense to win consistently.<\/p>\n
Pittsburgh, 6-8
Sure, Mike Tomlinson’s a good coach. That doesn’t make Ben Roethlisberger a good quarterback. Nor this anything other than a transition year.<\/p>\n
Cleveland, 6-8
Sooner or later, Romeo, they’re gonna expect you to find a way to win games.<\/p>\n
AFC South<\/b><\/p>\n
Indianapolis, 9-11
The problem with creating a blueprint for beating your own defense in order to win a championship is that afterward everyone knows how to beat your defense.<\/p>\n
Tennessee, 8-10
Continuing to move in the right direction.<\/p>\n
Houston, 7-9
Watch Ahman Green have one more (and probably one last) great season as the system imported from Denver starts to kick in for real.<\/p>\n
Jacksonville, 4-6
Say goodnight, Jack.<\/p>\n
AFC West<\/b><\/p>\n
San Diego, 10-12
Even Norv Turner should be able to succeed in the regular season with the talent on this team.<\/p>\n
Denver, 10-12
Once Jay Cutler gets rolling, this team’s gonna be hell on wheels.<\/p>\n
Oakland, 5-7
Get your roll on, Pep. The defense should keep the Raiders in games again this season. And the offense should be improved enough not to lose so many of them.<\/p>\n
Kansas City, 3-6
Two things that can really help you win football games: A true starting quarterback and a defensive line. Maybe the Chiefs will be able to find some of what they need at the top of the 2008 draft.<\/p>\n
NFC East<\/b><\/p>\n
Philadelphia, 10-12
So long as Donovan McNabb can stay healthy (and I’m guessing he can), no one in the division can touch the Eagles.<\/p>\n
Dallas, 8-10
I’m just not sure about Tony Romo.<\/p>\n
Washington, 7-9
Yeah, they look better than this on paper, but they always<\/i> look better than this on paper and they never pay it off on the field.<\/p>\n
NY Giants
4-6
I’d predict Tom Coughlin gets fired at the end of the season, but I’m not sure he’ll last that long. Neither am I certain that Eli Manning will ever be a legitimate NFL quarterback. That Phillip Rivers sure looks talented, though, doesn’t he?<\/p>\n
NFC North<\/b>
Chicago, 9-11
Post-Super Bowl collapse? In this mediocre division? I can’t imagine. Don’t see the Bears chewing up opponents again this season, either, though.<\/p>\n
Green Bay, 7-9
Sorry, Brett, but you can play until you’re 50 and you’re still not getting back to the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n
Detroit, 6-8
It’s not Jon Kitna’s predicted 10, but it’s something. Sort of.<\/p>\n
Minnesota, 4-6
There’s some nice young talent here, but the key word is young. Should be getting pretty good by the time they complete the move to L.A., though.<\/p>\n
NFC South<\/b><\/p>\n
New Orleans, 12-14
The Saints get four free victories this season thanks to the horrendous state of the Bucs and Falcons.<\/p>\n
Carolina, 10-12
Good. But not good enough to take the division away from New Orleans.<\/p>\n
Atlanta, 4-6
I’m rooting for Joey Harrington. So, you know, that ought to help.<\/p>\n
Tampa Bay, 3-5
Wasn’t Jon Gruden supposed to be some kind of genius? What happened? And where’s his next stop?<\/p>\n
NFC West<\/b>
San Francisco, 8-10
This is where it all comes together. Look for the Niners actually win a playoff game – after the 2008 season.<\/p>\n
St. Louis, 7-9
Steven Jackson alone will get you seven wins. I figure the rest of the Rams are good for one or two.<\/p>\n
Seattle, 6-8
I do expect Deion Branch to catch a lot of balls this season. Way to show those Pats, Deion.<\/p>\n
Arizona, 4-8
Lots and lots and lots of talent. And at last a competent coach. I just think it’s gonna take another year to kick in.<\/p>\n
Playoffs<\/b><\/p>\n
Since I’m here predicting the impossible to predict anyhow, might as well take a stab at the post season.<\/p>\n
Seedings<\/b><\/p>\n
AFC
1. New England
2. Baltimore
3. San Diego
4. Indianapolis
5. Cincinnati
6. Denver<\/p>\n
NFC
1. New Orleans
2. Philadelphia
3. Chicago
4. San Francisco
5. Carolina
6. Dallas<\/p>\n
Wild Card Round<\/b><\/p>\n
AFC
Cincinnati defeats Indianapolis
San Diego defeats Denver<\/p>\n
NFC
Chicago defeats Dallas
Carolina defeats San Francisco<\/p>\n
Divisional Playoffs<\/b><\/p>\n
AFC
San Diego defeats Baltimore
New England defeats Cincinnati<\/p>\n
NFC
Philadelphia defeats Chicago
New Orleans defeats Carolina<\/p>\n
Conference Championships<\/b><\/p>\n
AFC
New England defeats San Diego
Philadelphia defeats New Orleans<\/p>\n
Super Bowl XLII<\/b><\/p>\n
New England defeats Philadelphia, 41-10.<\/p>\n
Pro Bowl<\/b><\/p>\n
Nobody knows what happens, because nobody watches.<\/p>\n
So there it is. Your season at a glance. Except that at least one of the teams I think is gonna be great is actually gonna suck. And one of the teams I think is gonna suck is gonna be great. And also pretty much everything else I’ve predicted is gonna turn out to be either slightly off the mark or just plain old wrong.<\/p>\n