You want an accurate prediction? How’s this? Over the course of the next five days, 16 NFL teams will win and anther 16 will lose. And now that I’ve put that in writing, you can bet your ass there’s gonna be a tie somewhere. (Look at that. Four sentences in to week one and I’m already covering my ass.)<\/p>\n
OK here’s the real thing. I don’t like all the big spreads this week. And I don’t like the fact that there are four road teams favored, one of them by a full touchdown. You know what it all means? It means nobody knows what’s gonna happen. And it means that that come Monday morning, there’s going to be a boatload of people shaking their heads and asking themselves why they didn’t stop an think, because they should have known better. And you know what? I’m gonna be one of them. Because I’m mostly picking the favorites. Stupid? Without a doubt. But at least I admit it, and you have to admire that, at least sort of sideways. Right?<\/p>\n
Here we go. Sixteen predictions sure to steer you in precisely the wrong direction.<\/p>\n
New Orleans (+6) at Indianapolis<\/b>
Man, do I ever want the Saints to win this game. And, you know, they could. The Saints are certainly a better balanced team, and probably a better team overall, than the Colts. And I expect New Orleans to fare better over the course of the season. But I just can’t pick a six-point road dog to win in week one. I’ll take the Colts straight up, and hope I’m wrong, and the Saints to keep it close.<\/p>\n
Denver (-3.5) at Buffalo<\/b>
I don’t have one bit of faith in Buffalo’s defense. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong, but it won’t be this weekend. Road favorite or not, I’m taking the Broncos, and I’d give twice the spread.<\/p>\n
Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cleveland<\/b> Philadelphia (-3) at Green Bay<\/b> Kansas City (+3) at Houston<\/b> Tennessee (+7) at Jacksonville<\/b> Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota<\/b> New England (-7) at NY Jets<\/b> Carolina (pick ’em) at St. Louis<\/b> Miami (+3) at Washington<\/b> Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Seattle<\/b> Chicago (+6.5) at San Diego<\/b> Detroit (+1.5) at Oakland<\/b> NY Giants (+6) at Dallas<\/b> Baltimore (+2.5) at Cincinnati<\/b> Arizona (+3.5) at San Francisco<\/b>
I have a rule against picking upsets straight up in week one. And usually you do want to pick the better team in any given football game. But then I keep thinking about how well Jamal Lewis<\/a> has typically played against Pittsburgh (albeit while playing for a different, better team). And about how Ben Roethlisberger<\/a> is so good at throwing the ball to opposing DBs. And about how I really think Kamerion Wimbley’s<\/a> gonna live up to his potential this season. And that makes me want to pick the Browns. Who are at home. In a season-opener. Against a divisional rival. So I’m taking Cleveland to pull off the upset, and planning to cross everything I’ve got and hold my breath when the highlights roll around.<\/p>\n
Donovan McNabb’s<\/a> healthy (for now, at least), which means that Lambeau or no Lambeau, I can’t pick against the Eagles. Philly wins this one by six.<\/p>\n
I can’t tell you how psyched I am to start Ahman Green<\/a> in fantasy this weekend. Almost as psyched as I am that I’m not<\/i> a Kansas City Chiefs fan right now. A long, long season for the Chiefs starts with a big loss here. As strange as it is to type this, I’m looking for Houston to win this one by about three touchdowns.<\/p>\n
I think the Titans will finish this season ahead of the Jaguars, but that’s because I think the Titans will round into form in about week four or five and become a better team than the Jags. Right now, in this game, I’ve gotta think Jacksonville finds a way to come out ahead. But not by anything like seven points.<\/p>\n
Quick, find a standout wide receiver on this depth chart<\/a>. Exactly. So however talented Tarvaris Jackson<\/a> may be (and that’s a matter that’s yet to be decided), unless you really, really believe in Visanthe Shiancoe<\/a>, you’ve kinda gotta figure Atlanta’s defense has one man<\/a> to stop here. That can’t be too hard, right? And that’d be great news for the Falcons, if they only had an offense. I’m not entirely sure there will be three points scored in this nightmare. But I have to guess that if there are, they’ll be put up by the home team. So I’m taking Minnesota straight up, and looking for a push with the points.<\/p>\n
Man, imagine being at home in week one of a new season, facing a division opponent that is having to go without a superstar defensive end<\/a> (on account of injury) and a key, veteran safety<\/a> (on account of cheating), both of whom are also team leaders, and yet the oddsmakers still peg you as an underdog by a touchdown. That’s gotta hurt. But probably not as much as getting beat by two touchdowns will.<\/p>\n
The smart thing to do, when picking a fairly even matchup in the first week of the season, is to go with the home team. Another smart thing to do in a lot of situations is take the team with Steven Jackson<\/a> at running back. That’s how you know I’m stupid. Because I’m taking the Panthers. And other than referencing this guy<\/a>, I can’t begin to articulate why.<\/p>\n
Look, Hudson Houck<\/a> is one of the best (and maybe the best<\/i>) offensive line coaches in the NFL, but it’d take Rumple-fucking-stiltskin to make something useful out of the half-talents Miami has protecting its aging, concussion-prone quarterback<\/a> this season. And if I remember right, Washington has itself a hell of a defense. I’m taking the Redskins and giving the points. Oh, and hey, Trent. Duck.<\/p>\n
The big Buccaneers news this week revolves around the fact that on their they’re carrying four quarterbacks<\/a>, only one of whom<\/a> has had any success as a starter in the NFL. And the thing about Garcia, though I’m rather a fan of his, is that he’s done quite well when playing for good teams and fairly poorly when playing for mediocre or bad teams. Tampa Bay aspires to mediocrity, so I don’t have high hopes for Jeff. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are approaching mediocrity from the other side (that is, they used to be good) and while I think they’re going all of nowhere this season, they should be able to top the Bucs with relative ease. I’m taking Seattle and giving the points.<\/p>\n
Two letters: LT<\/a>. Chargers by 10.<\/p>\n
The Lions start their march toward a 10-plus-win season<\/a> with a visit to the team that was worst in the NFL last season (worse, by one game than the Lions) and that still hasn’t signed the first overall pick in the 2007 draft<\/a> (because, you know, $30 million just doesn’t go as far as it used to). And yet they’re still getting a point and a half. That’s not much, but it’s not looking like the oddsmakers are quite buying into your prediction, Jon. Then again, neither is anyone else. The Raiders D shuts the Lions down, while Oakland’s offense does just enough to win, but not cover. Final score: Oakland 10, Detroit 9.<\/p>\n
If Eli Manning<\/a> couldn’t get the job done with a future Hall of Fame running back<\/a> around to take some of the pressure off of him, how on earth is he going to do it without Tiki? And don’t even get me started on New York’s defensive secondary. Cowboys by seven.<\/p>\n
You know what’s crazy? This week one game could very well turn out to be the deciding factor in the AFC North championship. If the Ravens can somehow pull off an upset here, they’ll have an edge over what’s probably the only team in the division that poses a real threat to them this season. But then the Ravens aren’t going to pull off the upset, so I’m just talking. (Baltimore will still win the division, mind you. Just not in week one.) Bengals by a field goal.<\/p>\n
Next season this is gonna be a hell of a matchup. Right now, San Francisco has the edge. Probably to the tune of four points. (I will be staying up to watch, though, because I think this is gonna be a fun game, if not necessarily a great one.)<\/p>\n