Earlier this year (think early February), I came to the conclusion that I was done making predictions of any sort related to football. Just done. No more weekly game picks. And certainly no more absurd exercises in pretending I have any chance of knowing how an entire season (and post season of NFL football is likely to turn out.<\/p>\n
That, it appears, was my first bad prediction of 2010. Because, look, here I am, making predictions that can’t possibly work out. Unless, you know, my idea of things working out is that I get to look like even more of an idiot than I actually am. And, baby, that’s never been nearly as hard as it ought to be.<\/p>\n
OK, so as usual, I’ll start out by noting that all I can predict with any real confidence is that at least one team that I think is gonna suck is gonna accomplish something meaningful (by which I mean a division title at least and maybe even a Super Bowl victory), and at least one team that I expect to see great things from is gonna finish the season in the cellar. I know this because that’s how it always works out for everyone who tries to peg football results going five months into the future. So, you know, at least I’m in good company. Or awful company. Probably awful company. I can’t talk about that with any degree of accuracy, either.<\/p>\n
So here we go. I’m gonna make some predictions. And if they haven’t all gone completely to hell before the inevitable meltdown of the entire Cincinnati locker room, I’ll be as shocked as you are.<\/p>\n
Regular Season Records<\/strong> AFC East<\/strong> Miami Dolphins, 9-12 New York Jets, 7-9 Buffalo Bills, 4-7 AFC North<\/strong> Cincinnati Bengals, 5-11 Pittsburgh Steelers, 8-9 Cleveland Browns, 3-6 AFC South<\/strong> Houston Texans, 3-12 Tennessee Titans, 6-9 Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-6 AFC West<\/strong> Kansas City Chiefs, 7-10 Denver Broncos, 3-6 Oakland Raiders, 3-6 NFC East<\/strong> New York Giants, 9-11 Washington Native Americans, 8-10 Dallas Cowboys, 7-9 NFC North<\/strong> Minnesota Vikings, 7-9 Detroit Lions, 5-7 Chicago Bears, 3-5 NFC South<\/strong> Atlanta Falcons, 9-11 Carolina Panthers, 5-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2-6 NFC West<\/strong> Arizona Cardinals, 6-8 Seattle Seahawks, 2-5 St. Louis Rams, 0-3 Playoffs<\/strong> AFC Seedings NFC Seedings Wild Card Playoffs<\/strong> NFC Divisional Playoffs<\/strong> NFC Conference Championships<\/strong> NFC Super Bowl XLV<\/strong> That’s it. All the stuff you can expect to not happen for an entire season at a glance. How’s that for service?<\/p>\n
\nA couple years ago, I actually did give up trying to predict NFL teams’ season records. Because, well, come on already<\/em>. But the thing is, you’re not making predictions if you don’t predict something<\/em>. So here’s what I’ve got for you: a range of the total wins I think each team is likely to achieve. In theory, that approach should give me a better chance of coming out right. In practice, not so much. Still and all, here we go.<\/p>\n
\nNew England Patriots, 9-12
\nIt all comes down to the pass rush. If the Pats discover one, they should be one of those teams that turns the corner around mid-season, maybe wins its final six games, and looks dangerous heading into January. If they don’t, it’s not gonna matter if offense and special teams are improved over 2010, because the young secondary is gonna wear down, and New England’s gonna be lucky to back into the playoffs as a wild card squad.<\/p>\n
\nMuch to the dismay of the people of New Jersey, the Dolphins are actually the AFC East’s most improved team. And the squad with the most potential to displace New England at the top of the division.<\/p>\n
\nWith Darrelle Revis back on the field, the Jets should have a hell of a defense. That’ll win them six games. Let’s see if the offense can account for more than a win or two now that everyone’s figured out how to force Mark Sanchez to make awful decisions.<\/p>\n
\nThe Bills are trying hard to claw their way out of the basement, and they may yet get there. But not this season.<\/p>\n
\nBaltimore Ravens, 11-14
\nThe Ravens might be the best team in the conference. And, yeah, it’s got a lot to do with their defense. But don’t be surprised if this squad puts up a ton of points. If you can do that, and you can control the ball with your running game, you can make a talented defense look even better. .<\/p>\n
\nFor the Bengals, it’s all about how the season starts. Cincinnati’s got a tough first four weeks. If they come out of it 2-2 or better, they could get hot and make a nice run at the playoffs. If they come out of it 1-3 or 0-4, the things are gonna get pretty tense pretty quick in that locker room. And it all falls apart from there.<\/p>\n
\nNot a huge range there. That’s mostly because I’m pretty sure I know what the Steelers are. Average. Maybe just above average. That’s it.<\/p>\n
\nBecause they’re still the Browns. That’s why.<\/p>\n
\nIndianapolis Colts, 11-13
\nI’ve given up predicting the demise of the Colts. Now, maybe that’s a mistake. Maybe in the wake of Super Bowl XXXIV, Indy finally takes a nosedive. But I doubt it. Not in the AFC South as currently configured.<\/p>\n
\nBecause maybe this is the year when the team that always looks like it’s on the brink turns out actually to be there. And maybe not. Again.<\/p>\n
\nChris Johnson is a phenomenal football player, but he’s not an entire team. And as a unit, the Titans appear to have settled into a period of dedicated mediocrity.<\/p>\n
\nComing in 2011 (assuming there’s a season): new coach, new quarterback.<\/p>\n
\nSan Diego Chargers, 10-12
\nIN any other division in the AFC, the Chargers would be a nine-win team. But in the weak AFC West, and with a schedule that puts them up against the even weaker NFC West, the Chargers have shot at a bye in the first weekend of the post-season.<\/p>\n
\nI think the Chiefs are gonna surprise a lot of people. They’ll start slow, (maybe even going 1-3 over their first four games), but they should pull even, and maybe get to 5-3, by mid-season. And if they can build on that, they may find themselves competing for a playoff berth when they host Oakland to close the season.<\/p>\n
\nThe Broncos are banged up and thin on talent. That’s a really, really bad combination.<\/p>\n
\nThere are, for the first time since 2002, reasons to feel optimistic about the Raiders. The defense looks like it could be amazing. You still have to be able to actually score points to win NFL football games, though, and I don’t see a lot of reasons to anticipate that Oakland will be able to do that.<\/p>\n
\nPhiladelphia Eagles, 9-11
\nThe NFC East might not be the powerhouse division that it’s cracked up to be this season, but it should still be highly competitive. That means Kevin Kolb’s gonna have to prove he’s worthy of the faith the Eagles clearly have in him. I suspect he’s up to the task. But if he comes out of the gate slow, things could get ugly fast.<\/p>\n
\nThe Giants’ chances in the division will have everything to do with whether their receiving corps rounds into some kind of form by mid-season.<\/p>\n
\nIf Donovan McNabb is healthy and the offensive line can hold, Washington can compete for a wild card spot. The Native Americans defense certainly appears ready to do its part. But if that O-line isn’t improved, neither Mike Shanahan’s offense nor McNabb’s skills are gonna be able to save this squad.<\/p>\n
\nYeah, the Boys have guys who can catch the ball. But they’re still counting on Tony Romo to get it to them. I’ll believe that formula can succeed when I see it.<\/p>\n
\nGreen Bay Packers, 11-14
\nIf it weren’t for the fact that the Super Bowl champion Saints are virtually the same team they were a year ago, I’d be saying the Pack are hands down the best team in the conference. And that’s not just because of Aaron Rodgers, though, obviously, he’s a hell of a quarterback. The Packers are a balanced football team. Balanced in the sense that they should excel in both offense and defense. And balanced in the sense that they’re not at obvious risk of becoming one-dimensional on either side of the ball. That’s the stuff champions are made of.<\/p>\n
\nLast season, Brett Favre and the Vikings got within one stupid play of the Super Bowl. This year, they’re out to take it the next step. It’s not gonna happen. This team is going in the wrong direction, and they won’t get turned around until Favre actually retires.<\/p>\n
\nHey, look at that. I’m not expecting the Lions to totally tank. And I’m not alone. It’s like waking up in an alternate dimension. Enjoy the ascent to near mediocrity, Lions fans.<\/p>\n
\nJay Cutler isn’t the kind of quarterback you want playing behind a highly questionable offensive line. That situation has disaster written all over it.<\/p>\n
\nNew Orleans Saints, 10-12
\nThe Super Bowl champion Saints are essentially the same team they were a year ago. That’s mostly a good thing. But they’re playing a tougher schedule and coming off an extended season. Both of those things should hurt. Not enough to cost New Orleans a division crown, but enough to cost them the conference one seed. And a visit to Green Bay in late January could be highly problematic.<\/p>\n
\nThe Falcons can contend for the division title, but they’ll need help from the Saints to take it. And I don’t see that happening.<\/p>\n
\nThis is John Fox’s last season in Carolina. Next season, he gets to start building a winning squad somewhere else. This season, he gets to watch his miserable defense dig holes his talented, but not elite, offense can’t dig out of.<\/p>\n
\nThe Bucs appear to be headed in the right direction, but I’ve heard that tune before. And it doesn’t matter this season either way.<\/p>\n
\nSan Francisco 49ers, 9-11
\nThe Niners are a decent enough team that will look great at times by virtue of playing an incredibly weak schedule. They’ll win the division, then lose to a wild card team in the first week of the playoffs.<\/p>\n
\nYou know what’s a good thing to have on your roster in the NFL? A starting quarterback. Someone notify the Cards. In any other division, Arizona’s a six-win team at best. But when you play the NFC West (twice) and the AFC West, you get extra opportunities to back into victories. How exciting.<\/p>\n
\nThe Seahawks are rebuilding. And they’ve got a long way to go. Two games against the Rams essentially spots them two wins. After that, it’s a crapshoot.<\/p>\n
\nWith the first pick in the 2011 draft, the Rams select Robert Quinn, defensive end from North Carolina.<\/p>\n
\nBecause this exercise isn’t quite silly enough already.<\/p>\n
\n1. Baltimore
\n2. Indianapolis
\n3. San Diego
\n4. New England
\n5. Miami
\n6. Kansas City<\/p>\n
\n1. Green Bay
\n2. New Orleans
\n3. Philadelphia
\n4. San Francisco
\n5. NY Giants
\n6. Atlanta<\/p>\n
\nAFC
\nKansas City defeats San Diego
\nNew England defeats Miami<\/p>\n
\nNY Giants defeat San Francisco
\nAtlanta defeats Philadelphia<\/p>\n
\nAFC
\nBaltimore defeats Kansas City
\nNew England defeats Indianapolis<\/p>\n
\nGreen Bay defeats Atlanta
\nNY Giants defeat New Orleans<\/p>\n
\nAFC
\nBaltimore defeats New England<\/p>\n
\nGreen Bay defeats NY Giants<\/p>\n
\nGreen Bay defeats Baltimore, 33-27<\/p>\n