Awful lot of road teams giving points this week. That’s all I’m gonna say. I mean, that and here’s what not to expect.<\/p>\n
Detroit (+2.5) at Dallas<\/strong> New Orleans (-7) at Jacksonville<\/strong> Tennessee (pick ’em) at Cleveland<\/strong> Buffalo (-3) at Cincinnati<\/strong> Washington (-3) at St. Louis<\/strong> San Francisco (+9.5) at Philadelphia <\/strong> Minnesota (-3) at Kansas City <\/strong> Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Houston <\/strong> Carolina (+6.5) at Chicago <\/strong> Atlanta (-5) at\u00c2\u00a0 Seattle <\/strong> NY Giants (-1) at\u00c2\u00a0 Arizona <\/strong> Denver (+12.5) at\u00c2\u00a0 Green Bay <\/strong> New England (-6) at\u00c2\u00a0 Oakland<\/strong> Miami (+7) at\u00c2\u00a0 San Diego <\/strong> NY Jets (+4) at\u00c2\u00a0 Baltimore <\/strong> Indianapolis (+10) at\u00c2\u00a0 Tampa Bay<\/strong>
\nThe Lions have forced eight turnovers through three games. The Cowboys have surrendered seven. I’ll believe those trends are reversible when I see them reversed. Detroit by four.<\/p>\n
\nThe Jaguars are one of two teams in the NFL (along with the Kansas City Chiefs) that have put up fewer than 10 points a game so far this season. The Saints score nearly 35. Why don’t you tell me what that implies. New Orleans by 14.<\/p>\n
\nOne of these painfully uneven teams is gonna emerge from this game with a 3-1 record, something that will seem funny by the time the season ends. And since the Browns’ chief defensive vulnerability is to the run and the Titans have yet to figure out how to move the ball on the ground, I’m going to look for win from the home team. Let’s say Browns by two.<\/p>\n
\nFor the first time in three weeks, the Bills won’t have to rally from three scores down to win a game. How do I know? Because the Bengals aren’t capable of putting up three scores in a single football game. Buffalo by nine.<\/p>\n
\nGot Tim Hightower<\/a> on your fantasy team? Start him. Hightower may gain as many yards today as he put up in weeks one to three combined. Native Americans by a touchdown.<\/p>\n
\nThe outcome of this game will have a lot more to do with the health of Frank Gore<\/a> than the health of Michael Vick<\/a>. If Gore were fully healthy, the Niners might actually have a chance. They could try to exploit the pitiful Eagles run defense, control time of possession and maybe steal win. But he isn’t. So they can’t. And they won’t. Philadelphia by 10.<\/p>\n
\nThe Chiefs can’t score points, can’t stop the run, can’t keep opponents out of the end zone, and can’t hold on to the ball. That’s a really, really bad combination. Vikings by two touchdowns.<\/p>\n
\nYeah, I know, the Texans totally fell apart in the fourth quarter last weekend at New Orleans<\/a>. You know what else I know? Ben Roethlisberger<\/a> isn’t Drew Brees<\/a>. Not even when he has a solid offensive line protecting him, which he doesn’t. Roethlisberger turns the ball over three more times and the Texans come out on top by a touchdown.<\/p>\n
\nThe Bears’ complete inability to protect Jay Cutler<\/a> might not be such a huge issue this week. You know, what with the Panthers not having a pass rush and all. I’ll take the uneven home team over the uneven road team, though I wouldn’t give six and a half either way. Let’s call it Chicago by four.<\/p>\n
\nThe Falcons are playing their second straight road game. They’re coming off a tough loss at Tampa<\/a>. And they’re traveling cross country. That’s what the Seahawks have in their favor. What the Falcons have in their favor is that the Seahawks stink in virtually every aspect of the game. Atlanta by a field goal.<\/p>\n
\nI still don’t think the Giants are healthy or deep enough to have a ton of success this season, but I have to give them credit: They keep finding ways to win<\/a>. The Cardinals, on the other hand, keep finding ways to lose<\/a>. I see no reason to expect either of those trends to be reversed in this game. New Jersey by six.<\/p>\n
\nThis one’s not too terribly hard to size up. One of the best teams in the NFL is hosting one of the worst. That’s what you need to know. Green Bay by 20.<\/p>\n
\nThe Patriots just don’t have back-to-back bad games<\/a>. Right? I mean, they don’t. And they probably won’t. But that doesn’t mean New England’s guaranteed a win here. The Pats are playing their second straight road game. They’re traveling to the West Coast to do it. And their defense, which hasn’t exactly been shutting opponents down (worst D in the league by some important measures) is going, once again, to be missing some key players<\/a> (I’m more concerned about the lack of healthy cornerbacks than about Albert Haynesworth<\/a>). All that said, the Raiders don’t bring much to the table by way of a defensive secondary. Oakland’s very good pass rush notwithstanding, it seems fair to expect a shootout here. And in a shootout, I’ve got to go with Tom Brady<\/a> over Jason Campbell<\/a>. Can you blame me? Patriots, 35-34.<\/p>\n
\nThe Dolphins have a bye in week five. Do you know what that makes this? If you went with Tony Sparano<\/a>‘s final game as Miami’s head coach, you are correct. Chargers by an unlucky, for Sparano, 13.<\/p>\n
\nThe Frat Boys probably should lose this game. They’re playing on the road for a second straight week. They’re coming off a tough loss in Oakland<\/a>. They really haven’t been playing very well. And, you know, Joe Namath may actually be right about something<\/a> for the first time in roughly 42 years. Plus, statistically speaking, the Ravens are just the better team here. Baltimore ought to win. I ought to pick Baltimore to win. Probably by six or seven. But I’ve got this weird hunch that New Jersey is gonna find a way this week. And for whatever reason, I’m going with it. Frat Boys by a field goal. In overtime.<\/p>\n
\nDunno if you’ve heard this, but Peyton Manning is still hurt. Buccaneers by fourteen. Game over by halftime.<\/p>\n