Yeah, last week didn’t work out so well for me with the picks. It happens. And, for what it’s worth, I’m almost certain to do even worse this time around. So, you know, enjoy. The joke’s on me. Here’s what not to expect.<\/p>\n
San Francisco<\/a><\/strong> (-3) at St. Louis<\/a><\/strong> Baltimore<\/a><\/strong> (-3) at Buffalo<\/a><\/strong> Arizona<\/a><\/strong> (+2.5) at Tampa Bay<\/a><\/strong> Pittsburgh<\/a><\/strong> (-2.5) vs. Minnesota<\/a> at Wembley Stadium, London<\/strong> NY Giants<\/a><\/strong><\/strong> (+4.5) at Kansas City<\/a><\/strong> Indianapolis<\/a><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0(-8.5) at Jacksonville<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> Seattle<\/a><\/strong> (-2.5) at Houston<\/a><\/strong> Cincinnati<\/a><\/strong> (-4.5) at Cleveland<\/a><\/strong> Chicago<\/a><\/strong> (+3) at Detroit<\/a><\/strong> NY Jets<\/a><\/strong> (+3.5) at Tennessee<\/a><\/strong> Washington<\/a><\/strong> (-3) at Oakland<\/a><\/strong> Philadelphia<\/a><\/strong> (+10.5) at Denver<\/a><\/strong> Dallas<\/a><\/strong> (-2) at San Diego<\/a><\/strong> New England<\/a><\/strong> (+2) at Atlanta<\/a><\/strong><\/strong> Miami<\/a><\/strong> (+6.5) at New Orleans<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Conventional wisdom is the the 49ers will take this game, because (as I understand it) it’s inconceivable that last year’s NFC champions could lose three straight, and, this is the really good one, because they looked a lot better beating Green Bay<\/a> in week one than they did losing to Seattle<\/a> and Indianapolis<\/a> in weeks two and three. (Take a minute to absorb that last bit of wisdom, courtesy of football experts everywhere.) It’s an interesting perspective. But, um, I guess I should point out that in this context when I say interesting, I mean stupid. The Niners may well win this game \u00e2\u20ac\u201d they’re favored over a division opponent on the road, after all, and there’s a reason for that \u00e2\u20ac\u201d but they’re not going to win it because they played really well in January, or because their offense looked really good three weeks ago. If the 49ers get off the schneid here, it will be because their defense has figured out how to stop giving up 27 points a game and their offense has figured out how to operate without Vernon Davis<\/a> \u00e2\u20ac\u201d or with Davis<\/a> playing at less than full speed, if that turns out to be the case. (Figuring out how to hold onto the damned ball might come in handy as well.) Limiting St. Louis shouldn’t prove too much trouble. The Rams have a one-dimensional offense that four days ago<\/a> brushed up against no-dimensional. If San Francisco surrenders four touchdowns this week, they’re in serious trouble. As for getting the offense going, I’m not sure. The Rams haven’t stopped much of anything this season, so they shouldn’t get in the way. But I’ll believe this year’s Niners can operate without Davis at 100 percent when I see it. I suspect San Francisco will be able to do just enough to pull themselves back to .500. And given that they’ll have ten days to recover prepare for Houston, that might actually be enough to right the ship moving forward. But I won’t be shocked if St. Louis manages an upset here, and I’m not willing to give more than a point to the home dogs. Niners win it 24-23.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Yup, the Ravens defense sure did give up an embarrassing 49 points in the season opener<\/a>. They’ve allowed a grand total of 15 points in the two weeks since. And I’m pretty sure Peyton Manning<\/a> won’t be suiting up for the Bills this weekend. So I’m gonna go out on a limb and take Baltimore. By a touchdown, anyhow.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Will Mike Glennon<\/a> fare better behind center for the Buccaneers than Josh Freeman<\/a> has this season? I don’t know. Pretty sure he can’t do a whole lot worse. Glennon also has the advantage of facing a team without much by way of a pass defense (and not much of an offense to balance it), a luxury Freeman never got. So, sure, let’s ride with the rookie. What’s it to me? I’m not actually putting money on these games. Bucs by a field goal.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>It’s as if the NFL wanted to prove to the Brits that American football really can be every bit as boring as soccer. At least one of these 0-3 powerhouses is guaranteed not to lose this week. I’ll go with the one no longer quarterbacked by Christian Ponder<\/a>. Vikings by four.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Oh, boy, Eli<\/a>. Do you know which team leads the NFL in sacks? Yeah, that’s right. And it can’t be welcome news for a guy playing behind one of the league’s most porous offensive lines, a guy who’s either been sacked or thrown an interception once in every six and a half times he’s dropped back to pass so far this season. Ugly gets uglier as the Giants fall to 0-4 behind yet another blowout loss. Chiefs by 20.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>For whatever it’s worth, though, at least the Giants aren’t the worst 0-3 team in the NFL. That distinction goes to the squad that’s been outscored 92-28 in it’s first three games. Let’s play the averages and expect the difference to climb to 123-37, which is to say, Indy wins 31-9.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>I’m still not entirely sold on Seattle, but there’s no pretending the Seahawks are playing anything less than outstanding football right now. The Texans, on the other hand, have been hovering around the OK mark, looking like they’re trying to find an easy route to disappointing. They’ll cover a good bit of distance here. Matt Schaub<\/a> throws a pair of costly picks and the Seahawks win by 14.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>The Bengals are certainly the better team in this matchup. But the Browns at least have a defense that should be able to keep it close in their own building. Cincinnati by a field goal.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Stay away from the outcome and just bet the over. Bears by six.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Stay away from the outcome and just bet the under. Titans win 16-13.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>The Racists have to win something sometime. Right? And, you know, it’s not like the Raiders have a defense. Actually, it’s not like either team has a defense. But one of them at least is supposed<\/em> to have an offense. So, sure, Washington by seven.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Oh, my god, Peyton<\/a>. Would you please get over yourself <\/a>already? You’re actually making me want to root for Michael Vick<\/a>‘s team. Not that it would do them the least bit of good. Broncos win it 35-17.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>You know, San Diego, it’s going to be kind of tough for Tony Romo<\/a> to throw the pick that loses the game if you don’t have anybody who can actually snag an interception. Cowboys by four.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Tell me whether Rob Gronkowski<\/a> will be back in the starting lineup for New England and I’ll tell you how this game turns out. I really think it’s that simple. Because as much as Tom Brady<\/a> may choose to blame himself<\/a> for the Patriots’ lack of production in the red zone, the truth is that without the guy who led the team in touchdown catches last season \u00e2\u20ac\u201d hauling in 11, which matches the production of Brady’s second (Welker, 6) and third (Hernandez, 5) top TD targets \u00e2\u20ac\u201d New England is going to continue to struggle to finish drives. If the Patriots defense is for real \u00e2\u20ac\u201d and we’ll start to find out whether it is here \u00e2\u20ac\u201d they should have an opportunity to limit Atlanta’s scoring. But limit isn’t the same as stop. And the Falcons at home should be able to put up 17 to 21. That means New England’s offense is going to have to produce better than it has through the first three weeks of the season. And they’re going to have to do it through the air, because the Falcons D doesn’t surrender rushing TDs. So, again, tell me about Gronkowski and I’ll tell you about the game. Only, you don’t know any more about whether Gronkowski’s going to play \u00e2\u20ac\u201d or at what level \u00e2\u20ac\u201d than I do. So I’ll roll the dice. I’ll guess that Gronk’s ready to go and that he’ll be able to contribute. And because of that, I’ll take the Patriots to win it by a field goal.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Sometimes a team is for real, and sometimes it’s not. Until the Dolphins figure out a way to protect Ryan Tannehill<\/a> (who’s been sacked a league-high average of nearly five times per game), they won’t be for real. Saints by a touchdown.<\/p>\n