\n<\/strong>Folks, can we maybe settle down a little with the “Dan Campbell<\/a> has really turned the Dolphins around” bit? I mean, come on, already. Campbell has coached Miami for all of two games. Two. That’s also the length of Campbell’s total experience as a head coach, or, you know, anything more advanced than a position coach. (But, hell, he spent four full years coaching tight ends, the position he used to play, so he’s got all of that diverse experience to draw on.) And he’s coached the team to wins over two of the weakest teams from the single weakest division in the NFL. Sure, those wins over the Titans<\/a> and Texans<\/a> were decisive. But decisive is not necessarily the same as impressive. And I’m going to have to ask you to forgive me when I tell you that I’m not quite ready to buy what the Miami hype machine is selling. Or that as of right now, I wouldn’t pick the Dolphins to beat the foundering Colts, let alone the streaking Patriots. Just wouldn’t. And this is only part of the reason for that.<\/p>\n
OK, yeah, Brady’s obviously a big<\/em> part of the reason. The Jets couldn’t slow him down<\/a> on Sunday, and they rolled into Foxborough with a better pass defense than the Dolphins, a much more experienced coach than the Dolphins, and a full week of preparation behind them. That result might not be the most hopeful sign for Miami. But there’s also the fact that while Campbell may have got the Dolphins players to buy in to whatever his message may be in a way that Joe Philbin<\/a> couldn’t pull off, and\/or may have found a way to get more out of Fins players by asking less of them<\/a>, it’s not like he reinvented the team. The players who have gone 2-0 since Campbell took over are the same guys who started the season 1-3. And I suspect the team will settle back to being something closer to what it was under Philbin before too terribly long. At the very least, I expect them to come to rest somewhere between what they were in the early part of the season and what they’ve appeared to be over the last two weeks. And when I look at the Dolphins on the whole as they stack up to the Patriots, I don’t see any strong indicators of an ability to pull off a win in Foxborough. (Yes, it’s true, anything is always possible, particularly in a divisional game. Any given Thursday and all that. But omnipresent qualifiers don’t count in this conversation.) I see a visiting squad that falls short of the home team in each of the three most significant predictive stats: Scoring differential (New England +6.4), passer rating differential (New England +9.3) and turnover differential (+7). That doesn’t point to a third straight win for the Dolphins; it points to a seventh straight win for the Patriots. And I don’t expect it to be nearly so close as the Jets game. Patriots by 14.<\/p>\n Detroit<\/a> (+5) vs. Kansas City<\/a><\/strong> at Wembley Stadium, London Minnesota<\/a> (-1) at Chicago<\/a>![\"BradysInflatedStatsGame6\"](\"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/BradysInflatedStatsGame6.jpg\")
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\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>If the Chiefs had a running back, they’d win this game with relative ease. But they don’t, so they’ll probably have to slog it out. Kansas City still comes out on top, but maybe only by a field goal.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>It’s hard to imagine Adrian Peterson<\/a> not<\/em> having a huge day against the Bears’ awful run D. You know, assuming he can lay off the shrimp<\/a>. Vikings by 10.<\/p>\n