{"id":504,"date":"2015-11-25T17:47:41","date_gmt":"2015-11-25T21:47:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/?p=504"},"modified":"2015-11-25T17:47:41","modified_gmt":"2015-11-25T21:47:41","slug":"week-twelve-picks-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/?p=504","title":{"rendered":"Week Twelve Picks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>You know what I&#8217;m not thankful for? Stupidity. Specifically, my own. Which is about all I have to blame for my week 11 finish. Yeah, it wasn&#8217;t an easy week to pick. But, really, 7-7 straight up, 6-7-1 against the spread? Ugh. And the thing is, this stuff is supposed to get easier as the season wears and the stats and trends begin to point to results more and more reliably.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe it&#8217;ll turn around this week and I can start to improve on my disappointing season. I&#8217;m now 96-64 (.600) straight up, 71-85-4 (.456) against the spread. That&#8217;s pretty sad all around.<\/p>\n<p>Sadder still for me is the likelihood that my picking will continue to trend in the wrong direction.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s what not to expect in week twelve.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a title=\"Philadelphia Eagles web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.philadelphiaeagles.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Philadelphia<\/a> (even) at <a title=\"Detroit Lions web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.detroitlions.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Detroit<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nNo one knows who&#8217;ll be starting at quarterback for the Eagles in this game. And no one cares. Lions by six.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"Carolina Panthers web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.panthers.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Carolina<\/a> (-1) <strong>at <a title=\"Dallas Cowboys web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.dallascowboys.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Dallas<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>I don&#8217;t know if you&#8217;ve heard about this, but with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nfl.com\/player\/tonyromo\/2505354\/profile\" target=\"_blank\">Tony Romo<\/a> back on the field the Cowboys have officially become a factor in the NFC postseason race again. Or, you know, they&#8217;re a factor as long as they&#8217;re playing powerhouse opponents <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nfl.com\/gamecenter\/2015112207\/2015\/REG11\/cowboys@dolphins?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=gameinfo|contentId%3A0ap3000000587046&amp;tab=recap\" target=\"_blank\">like the Dolphins<\/a>. Will they continue to be a factor when an actual NFL team rolls into Dallas? Probably not. But they had a moment there. And no one can take that away from them. Panthers by 10.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"Chicago Bears web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.chicagobears.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Chicago<\/a> (+9) <strong>at <a title=\"Green Bay Packers web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.packers.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Green Bay<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Beating the Bears is a lot simpler if you&#8217;re a team with a really strong running game. But it&#8217;s not like it&#8217;s horribly complicated otherwise. Which is good news for Green Bay. Packers by 14.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"New Orleans Saints web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.neworleanssaints.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">New Orleans<\/a> (+3) <strong>at <strong title=\"Houston Texans web site\"><a title=\"Houston Texans web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.houstontexans.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Houston<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>My preseason pick of the Texans to win the AFC South title isn&#8217;t looking so stupid now that Houston has won three straight and, um, got back to .500, now, is it? OK, sure. But the Saints still don&#8217;t have a defense. So let&#8217;s make it four in a row. Houston by a touchdown.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"Minnesota Vikings web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.vikings.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Minnesota<\/a> (+2) <strong>at <strong title=\"Atlanta Falcons web site\"><a title=\"Atlanta Falcons web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.atlantafalcons.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Atlanta<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>The Falcons should be thankful for the fact that they&#8217;re hosting this game. Because they&#8217;d totally lose if it were in Minnesota. Atlanta by a field goal.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"St. Louis Rams web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.stlouisrams.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis<\/a> (+9) <strong>at <a title=\"Cincinnati Bengals web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bengals.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Cincinnati<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>I&#8217;m not sure the Bengals&#8217; two-game skid is a huge deal. But that might be because it&#8217;s struck me as mostly a correction for a team that had been overachieving for most of the season. Either way, it ends Sunday when the Bengals get a visit from a team that has legitimately fallen apart over the past three weeks. Cincinnati by 13.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><strong title=\"Tampa Bay Buccanneers web site\"><a title=\"Tampa Bay Buccanneers web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.buccaneers.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Tampa Bay<\/a><\/strong> (+3) <strong>at <strong title=\"Indianapolis Colts web site\"><a title=\"Indianapolis Colts web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.colts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Indianapolis<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Have the Colts figured out a way to stop the run? No? OK, then. Buccaneers by four.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"New York Giants web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.giants.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">NY Giants<\/a> (-2.5) <strong>at <a title=\"Washington Redskins web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.redskins.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Washington<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>If the Giants could run the ball, this one would be a breeze. But they can&#8217;t. So it&#8217;ll be a grind. New Jersey by a point.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"Oakland Raiders web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.raiders.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Oakland<\/a> (-2) <strong>at <a title=\"Tennessee Titans web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.titansonline.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Tennessee<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Neither of these teams has a defense. But one of them can at least be thankful for its offense. That&#8217;s the visiting squad. Oakland by four.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"Buffalo Bills web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.buffalobills.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Buffalo<\/a> (+5.5) <strong>at <strong title=\"Kansas City Chiefs web site\"><a title=\"Kansas City Chiefs web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.kcchiefs.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Kansas City<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Traveling to Kansas City to face the red hot Chiefs on a short week probably wouldn&#8217;t have worked out well for the Bills even if they hadn&#8217;t just been roughed up in a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nfl.com\/gamecenter\/2015112300\/2015\/REG11\/bills@patriots?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=gameinfo|contentId%3A0ap3000000586966&amp;tab=recap\" target=\"_blank\">loss at New England<\/a>. Adding the usual post-Patriots hangover to the mix probably won&#8217;t help. Chiefs by nine.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"Miami Dolphins web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.miamidolphins.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Miami<\/a> (+3.5) <strong>at <a title=\"New York Jets web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.newyorkjets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">NY Jets<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>The Jets aren&#8217;t all that hard to figure. They&#8217;re a solidly mediocre team. And they perform as such. They consistently lose to good teams. They split with other mediocre teams. And they beat bad teams. The Dolphins are a bad team. Jets by six.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><strong title=\"San Diego Chargers web site\"><a title=\"San Diego Chargers web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.chargers.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">San Diego<\/a><\/strong> (+4) <strong>at <a title=\"Jacksonville Jaguars web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.jaguars.com\" target=\"_blank\">Jacksonville<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Oh, boy, are these two teams awful. I supposed I&#8217;ll go with awful home team over awful road team. But probably only by three.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><strong title=\"Arizona Cardinals web site\"><a title=\"Arizona Cardinals web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.azcardinals.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Arizona<\/a><\/strong> (-10.5) <strong>at <a title=\"San Francisco 49ers web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.49ers.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">San Francisco<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Let&#8217;s figure that with the game being played in San Francisco, and with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nfl.com\/player\/colinkaepernick\/2495186\/profile\" target=\"_blank\">Colin Kaepernick<\/a> not available to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nfl.com\/gamecenter\/2015112300\/2015\/REG11\/bills@patriots?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=gameinfo|contentId%3A0ap3000000586966&amp;tab=recap\" target=\"_blank\">throw TD passes to Arizona&#8217;s defensive backs<\/a>, the Cardinals only win by 20 this time around.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"Pittsburgh Steelers web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.steelers.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Pittsburgh<\/a> (+4) <strong>at <strong title=\"Seattle Seahawks web site\"><a title=\"Seattle Seahawks web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.seahawks.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Seattle<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>This is one of the toughest picks of the week. The teams are fairly evenly matched, though the visitor is probably ever so slightly stronger than the home team. Both are playing for spots in the postseason. And neither team is hot enough, or cold enough, to make you feel like there&#8217;s a safe bet here. I suspect home field will get the job done for Seattle, though I certainly don&#8217;t think it makes sense to give four points. Seahawks by two.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"New England Patriots web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.patriots.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">New England<\/a> (-3) <strong>at <strong title=\"Denver Broncos web site\"><a title=\"Denver Broncos web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.denverbroncos.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Denver<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>If, like me, you&#8217;re inclined to think there&#8217;s no way the Patriots get through the regular season undefeated, you&#8217;ve got to look at this game as a likely loss. The Patriots limp into Denver with a depleted offense to face one of the best Ds in football. And while they bring their own increasingly impressive defense with them to take on an inexperienced quarterback, the Patriots do so while traveling on a short week. This is not the stuff that confidence is made of. Still, New England is the better team in this tilt. And for that reason, I can&#8217;t bring myself to pick against them. Patriots by a field goal.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/BradysInflatedStatsGame10.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-505\" src=\"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/BradysInflatedStatsGame10.jpg\" alt=\"BradysInflatedStatsGame10\" width=\"600\" height=\"571\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/BradysInflatedStatsGame10.jpg 1280w, http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/BradysInflatedStatsGame10-300x285.jpg 300w, http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/BradysInflatedStatsGame10-1024x974.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong><strong><a title=\"Baltimore Ravens web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.baltimoreravens.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Baltimore<\/a> (+2.5) <strong>at <a title=\"Cleveland Browns web site\" href=\"http:\/\/www.clevelandbrowns.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Cleveland<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>Man, I sure wish there were a football game on Monday night. I don&#8217;t even know what to do with these organizations. Since the Ravens <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/fantasy\/football\/news\/ravens-joe-flacco-out-for-season-with-acl-tear\/\" target=\"_blank\">don&#8217;t have a quarterback<\/a> and the <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/nfl\/story\/_\/id\/14215359\/cleveland-browns-start-josh-mccown-johnny-manziel\" target=\"_blank\">Browns sort of do<\/a> even if it&#8217;s only by accident, let&#8217;s say Cleveland by three.<\/p>\n<div id=\"fb_share_1\" style=\"float: right; margin-left: 10px;;width: 55px;\" name=\"fb_share\"><div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div><script src=\"http:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/all.js#appId=125029517579627&amp;xfbml=1\"><\/script><fb:like href=\"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/?p=504\" send=\"false\" layout=\"button_count\" width=\"55\" show_faces=\"false\" font=\"arial\"><\/fb:like><\/div><div class=\"tweetthis\" style=\"text-align:left;\"><p> <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"tt\" href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=Week+Twelve+Picks+http%3A%2F%2Fthisfootballblog.com%2F%3Fp%3D504\" title=\"Post to Twitter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"nothumb\" src=\"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/tweet-this\/icons\/en\/twitter\/tt-twitter.png\" alt=\"Post to Twitter\" \/><\/a> <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"tt\" href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=Week+Twelve+Picks+http%3A%2F%2Fthisfootballblog.com%2F%3Fp%3D504\" title=\"Post to Twitter\">Tweet This Post<\/a><\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You know what I&#8217;m not thankful for? Stupidity. Specifically, my own. Which is about all I have to blame for my week 11 finish. Yeah, it wasn&#8217;t an easy week to pick. But, really, 7-7 straight up, 6-7-1 against the spread? Ugh. And the thing is, this stuff is supposed to get easier as the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=504"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.thisfootballblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}