Even I can’t complain about these results.<\/p>\n
I went 13-0 straight up in week eight. It wasn’t exactly the toughest slate of games to pick. But still. And even with the added challenge of picking against the spread, I finished 9-4. I can’t imagine ever doing any better than that.<\/p>\n
For the season, I now stand at 76-43 (.639) straight up, 57-58-4 (.496) against the spread.<\/p>\n
And all of that points squarely to a major correction in week nine. Which is to say here’s what really, really not to expect.<\/p>\n
Buffalo<\/a> (-3) at NY Jets<\/a> Denver<\/a><\/strong> (+8) at Philadelphia<\/a> LA Rams<\/a> (-3.5) at <\/strong>NY Giants<\/a><\/strong> Tampa Bay<\/a><\/strong> (+7) at New Orleans<\/a> Cincinnati<\/a> (+4.5) at Jacksonville<\/a> Atlanta<\/a><\/strong> (+1) at Carolina<\/a> Indianapolis<\/a><\/strong> (+7) at Houston<\/a><\/strong> Baltimore<\/a> (+5.5) at Tennessee<\/a> Arizona<\/a><\/strong> (-2) at San Francisco<\/a> Washington<\/a> (+7.5) at Seattle<\/a><\/strong> Kansas City<\/a><\/strong> (+2.5) at Dallas<\/a> Oakland<\/a> (-3) at Miami<\/a> Detroit<\/a> (-2.5) at Green Bay<\/a>
\n<\/strong>A week ago, I said I’d have to consider buying into the notion of Buffalo as a contender for a postseason berth if they beat Oakland handily. And then the Bills went and beat the grog out of the Raiders<\/a>. So I guess I’m officially on board the bandwagon. Maybe not enough to pick the Bills playing on the road on short rest \u00e2\u20ac\u201d if they were playing a good team. But they’re playing the Jets. I expect the Bills to come out +2 in turnovers and +10 in points scored.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The Broncos can make all the cosmetic changes<\/a> to their starting lineup they want, they’re not suddenly going to become a good football team. And when you’ve got a not good football team traveling for the third straight week and playing a very good football team, it isn’t terribly difficult to peg the result. Eagles by 17.<\/p>\n
\nFor all the Rams success so far this season, I still suspect they’re a year away from being a truly dangerous football team. But the Giants are only a danger to themselves at this point. Los Angeles by six.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The Saints defense isn’t terribly good (which is going to present rather a problem in January), but it does a fine job of shutting down bad offenses. New Orleans by 10.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>No one will ever be able to say Andy Dalton<\/a> fell off a cliff at age 30. He only turned 30 on Monday, and he’d already fallen off a cliff by that point. Maybe the Bengals defense will hold the Jaguars’ margin of victory down to something like seven. But probably not.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>I refuse to devote to this game the energy it would take to flip a coin. So I’ll go with the home team. Panthers by three.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The Deshaun Watson injury<\/a> unquestionably derailed an exciting debut season for a young talent. But it didn’t really change a whole lot about 2017 for the Texans. They weren’t really going anywhere with Watson; they can just as easily not go anywhere without him. And with or without him, they’re still a better team than the Luck-less Colts<\/a>. But maybe not a full touchdown better. Houston by 4.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>I’m not sure I understand the spread on this game. In fact, if these teams were playing in Baltimore, I wouldn’t hesitate to take the Ravens. I suspect the Titans find a way to win it at home, but I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t come down to the wire. Tennessee by a point.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The 49ers probably have their quarterback of the future<\/a>. But not of the moment. And still, they’re at home. And facing an opponent that’s worse than many realize. San Francisco by a field goal.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>I’m not sure the Seahawks’ four-game win streak<\/a> has been all that impressive. And I don’t expect to be any more impressed when they extend it to five. Seattle by nine.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>When it looked like the the Cowboys were going to have to play without their dickhead running back<\/a>, I had the Chiefs coming out on tip by a field goal. But now that’s changed (again), so I’m flipping it around. Dallas by three.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>It would be almost impossible for both teams to lose this game. I think. Raiders by one.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>I don’t know. Brett Hundley<\/a>‘s probably gonna have some degree of success at some point, right? Packers by four.<\/p>\n