Now I’m feeling good about myself, which is insanely dangerous.<\/p>\n
But what am I gonna do?<\/p>\n
I finished week twelve 14-2 straight up, 8-7-1 against the spread. And I know that ATS record is awful. But I’ve grown accustomed to awful there. So I’m focusing on the straight up 14-2. That’s a nice little result.<\/p>\n
It brings me to 119-57 (.676) straight up and 85-83-8 (.506) so far this season.<\/p>\n
And that brings me to fear that a major correction is in the offing.<\/p>\n
So, uh, here’s what you totally should not in any way expect in week 13.<\/p>\n
Washington<\/a> (+1.5) at Dallas<\/a> Detroit<\/a> (+3) at Baltimore<\/a> San Francisco<\/a> (+3.5) at Chicago<\/a> Minnesota<\/a> (+3) at Atlanta<\/a><\/strong> New England<\/a> (-8.5) at Buffalo<\/a> Denver<\/a><\/strong> (-1) at Miami<\/a> Houston<\/a><\/strong> (+7) at Tennessee<\/a> Indianapolis<\/a><\/strong> (+9.5) at Jacksonville<\/a> Tampa Bay<\/a><\/strong> (+1) at Green Bay<\/a> Kansas City<\/a><\/strong> (-3.5) at NY Jets<\/a> Carolina<\/a> (+4) at New Orleans<\/a> Cleveland<\/a> (+13.5) at LA Chargers<\/a><\/strong> LA Rams<\/a> (-7) at Arizona<\/a><\/strong> NY Giants<\/a> (+7) at Oakland<\/a> Philadelphia<\/a> (-5.5) at Seattle<\/a><\/strong> Pittsburgh<\/a> (-5.5) at Cincinnati<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/strong>Don’t know about you, but I don’t really see anyone going off<\/a> for 150 yards and a pair of touchdowns this time around. And like the Cowboys themselves (apparently), I’m not sure how you replace that kind of production. Racists by a point.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>These two postseason pretenders have exactly one victory over a good opponent<\/a> between them \u00e2\u20ac\u201d and it happened back in week four. Nothing substantive changes here. The so-so home team adds the pelt of a solidly mediocre visitor to its sad little trophy case. Ravens by two.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>Well, at least the 49ers’ decision to start Jimmy Garoppolo<\/a> gives ticket holders, Andrew Catalon<\/a>, James Lofton<\/a>, and those who can’t escape being part of the home viewing audience something<\/em> to be excited about. I’m not sure Jimmy’s likely to turn the 49ers around single-handedly in his first start. But he should make things more interesting. Bears by one.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>If this game were being played in Minnesota, I’d expect an easy win for the Vikings. In Atlanta it’s a bit of a poser. But Minnesota remains the more balanced team. And I like balance. So I’m holding my breath and saying Vikings by a point.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>Forget the history stuff. Yes, the Patriots have fared rather well<\/a> against the Bills over the last 17 seasons. And, yes, Tom Brady<\/a>‘s success in Buffalo<\/a> has been well documented. As has Bill Belichick<\/a>‘s success pretty much everywhere against pretty much everyone. (Though it’s odd to me that I’ve seen scant mention of the fact that a Patriots win in this game \u00e2\u20ac\u201d which will be the 400th game of Belichick’s head coaching career \u00e2\u20ac\u201d would break a tie with George Halas to give Belichick the best winning percentage in NFL history, .683.) But just set that stuff aside. It doesn’t matter. Here’s what does matter: The 9-2 Patriots at this point in the 2017 NFL season are a significantly better team than the 6-5 Bills. That’s it. The Patriots are only going to lose one more game this season and it’s not going to be this one. (Patriots fans are screaming through their screens at me right now, “The Pats aren’t losing to the Steelers!” And I ask, “Who said anything about the Steelers?” The fact of the matter is that a week 15 win in Pittsburgh, if it’s ultimately a step along the way to extending New England’s current seven-game winning streak to 11, would result in the Patriots going into their week 17 visit from the Jets with home field locked up and no reason to leave starters in past halftime.) OK, back to the moment at hand: New England by 10.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The Broncos are probably slightly less bad than the Dolphins. By enough that I expect them to break a seven-game losing streak while playing a second consecutive road game? No. I mean, I don’t know. Maybe. Maybe. Or, you know, maybe know. Dolphins fall ass-backward into a three-point home win.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>Week four<\/a> was just an awfully long time ago, wasn’t it? Not so long, I’m sure, that the Titans will have forgotten. Tennessee by 13.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The Jaguars no doubt are going to be eager to put things back the right way around after an disheartening loss<\/a> last week in Arizona. And that leads one to anticipate that the Colts may find themselves longing for a return to the glory of week seven<\/a> before this thing wraps up. Jacksonville by … oh, let’s just figure it’s at least 27 again this time.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The Packers’ loss in Pittsburgh<\/a> Sunday night marked the first time we’ve seen Brett Hundley<\/a> play good football against a tough opponent. That’s a hopeful sign for Green Bay in terms of keeping their hopes of mounting a postseason run alive. It’s not such a great sign for the Bucs, who might have had a shot here otherwise. Packers by four.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The good news for the Jets is that they are not (for a change) the most dysfunctional football team in New Jersey<\/a>. The bad news is that this really shouldn’t qualify as good news on any meaningful level. The worse news is that the Jets are in no position to turn away from whatever good news they can get wherever they can get it. And the terrible news is that the Chiefs are coming to visit this weekend in desperate need of a win to stop their three-game skid and maintain what little is left of their lead in the AFC West. Kansas City regains the confidence of absolutely no one in coming out ahead by a field goal.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The Saints aren’t the same team that demolished the Panthers<\/a> in Charlotte back in week three. They’re better. Still, I don’t expect Carolina to make the same kinds of mistakes they made in that game, certainly not with the NFC South title on the line (the Panthers can’t win the division in this game, but they can almost certainly lose it). So I’m expecting a narrower victory by New Orleans this time. Saints by three.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>The Chargers’ margin of victory in this game may well average out to a point for every fan in the building. So that’ll be, like, what, maybe 20?<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>It’s possible, I suppose, that the Rams are thinking ahead to next week’s meeting with the Eagles. That could work to Arizona’s benefit. I guess. If it happens. Otherwise, the Rams finish the season sweep by once again humiliating the Cardinals<\/a>. Los Angeles by something in the double digits (so, yeah, more than seven).<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>If the Giants don’t have to try, neither do I. Raiders by 14.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>I can’t see the Eagles traveling to Seattle and winning by 20-plus for a fifth straight week. But I’m sure they’ll be just as happy to win by six.<\/p>\n
\nThe Bengals have looked almost passable recently against horrible opposition. This week’s matchup features an actual NFL team. It’s only by virtue of playing on the road against a division rival that Pittsburgh comes out ahead by a mere seven points.<\/p>\n