Oof! I should have seen that coming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Or, you know, I guess I did see it coming. I’ve been waiting all season for my luck to run out. And that’s just what happened in week ten. I manged to go 6-7 straight up, which is half a game better than my 5-7-1 picking against the spread. Not a good week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I’m still looking OK for the season. I guess. I’m 98-49-1 (.666 \u00e2\u20ac\u201d pentagram! heavy metal horns!) straight up and 78-68-2 (.534) with the points. Let’s see how much chipping away at those winning records I can this weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here’s what not to expect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pittsburgh<\/a> (+2.5) at<\/strong> Cleveland<\/a><\/strong> Dallas<\/a> (-4.5) at<\/strong> Detroit<\/a><\/strong> New Orleans<\/a> (-5.5) at<\/strong> Tampa Bay<\/a><\/strong> Atlanta<\/a> (+5.5) at<\/strong> Carolina<\/a><\/strong> Jacksonville<\/a> (+3) at<\/strong> Indianapolis<\/a><\/strong> Denver<\/a> (+10.5) at<\/strong> Minnesota<\/a><\/strong> NY Jets<\/a> (+1.5) at<\/strong> Washington<\/a><\/strong> Buffalo<\/a> (-6) at<\/strong> Miami<\/a><\/strong> Houston<\/a> (-4) at<\/strong> Baltimore<\/a><\/strong> Arizona<\/a> (+10.5) at<\/strong> San Francisco<\/a><\/strong> New England<\/a> (-3.5) at<\/strong> Philadelphia<\/a><\/strong> Cincinnati<\/a> (+10.5) at<\/strong> Oakland<\/a><\/strong> Chicago<\/a> (+6.5) at<\/strong> LA Rams<\/a><\/strong> Kansas City<\/a> (-3.5) vs. LA Chargers<\/a> at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City<\/strong>
I don’t like taking the road team in a Thursday night game. But, oddsmakers’ opinions notwithstanding, the Steelers are just a much better team than the Browns. Pittsburgh by six.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Cowboys are going as far as 10-6 will take them. That might be an NFC East title and a first round home loss to the Seahawks. Or it might be eliminated from the postseason entirely. The Lions? They’re going nowhere at all. Cowboys by a touchdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Bucs may make this a game, at least for a while. But it won’t hold. Saints by nine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You can beat the Panthers if your ground game is strong on both sides of the ball. The Falcons are strong on neither. Panthers by 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In an evenly matched division game, you take the home team. So I’ll probably be picking the Jaguars in week 17. This week, I’m thinking Colts by a point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Broncos are outmatched. By Dalvin Cook<\/a>. Vikings by 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I don’t know which of these teams is terribler. That’s not a real word. Then again, these aren’t real football teams. Jets? I guess I’ll take the Jets. For no real reason. By three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It turns out the Bills maybe aren’t all that great. But they’ve got to be at least good enough to put a hurt on the Dolphins. Buffalo by 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Texans have enough of a defense to make this a game. But the Ravens have home field. Baltimore by three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As long as they can overcome what has to be a mighty hangover<\/a>, the 49ers shouldn’t have much trouble with the Cardinals. I suspect the Niners will come out sluggish only to pick it up in the second half. San Fran by twelve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here are your big three predictives: Passer rating differential, Patriots +23.1; scoring differential, Patriots +9.0; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +18. Also, you know, the Eagles are kind of an uneven team. If the Patriots can stop the run, they should win big. If they can’t, they’ll win a close one. New England by a touchdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Raiders continue to be solidly average. The Bengals continue to be reliably awful. Oakland by 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is what the middle of the pack looks like. Rams by four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I’d love to think the Chargers could make this a game. But I don’t. Because they can’t. Chiefs by a touchdown.<\/p>\n