Hey, look, it’s only Thursday and I’ve made all my picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Numbers first. I finished week 11 with a record of 8-6 picking straight up, 9-5 against the spread. For the season, that puts me at 103-57-1 (.643) straight up 73-83-5 (.469).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here’s what not to expect in week twelve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Happy Thanksgiving!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Houston<\/a> (-3) at<\/strong> Detroit<\/a><\/strong> Washington<\/a> (+3) at<\/strong> Dallas<\/a><\/strong> Las Vegas<\/a> (-3) at<\/strong> Atlanta<\/a><\/strong> LA Chargers<\/a> (+5.5) at<\/strong> Buffalo<\/a><\/strong> NY Giants<\/a> (-6) at<\/strong> Cincinnati<\/a><\/strong> Tennessee<\/a> (+3) at<\/strong> Indianapolis<\/a><\/strong> Carolina<\/a> (+3.5) at<\/strong> Minnesota<\/a><\/strong> Arizona<\/a> (-2.5) at<\/strong> New England<\/a><\/strong> Miami<\/a> (-7) at<\/strong> NY Jets<\/a><\/strong> Cleveland<\/a> (-7) at<\/strong> Jacksonville<\/a><\/strong> Baltimore<\/a> (+4.5) at<\/strong> Pittsburgh<\/a><\/strong> New Orleans<\/a> (-6) at<\/strong> Denver<\/a><\/strong> San Francisco<\/a> (+6.5) at<\/strong> LA Rams<\/a><\/strong> Kansas City<\/a> (-3.5) at<\/strong> Tampa Bay<\/a><\/strong> Chicago<\/a> (+8.5) at<\/strong> Green Bay<\/a><\/strong> Seattle<\/a> (-5) at<\/strong> Philadelphia<\/a><\/strong>
I can’t begin to figure the identity of either of these teams. Thing is, neither can they. I’m going to guess that short-term trends turn out to be slightly more of a factor than short-week travel. Texans by two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I plan to nap off and on through this game. I’ll wake up just in time to the final turnover (of what I imagine will be a combined five or six) that seals the home team’s four-point win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These teams really aren’t all that different. Except that more often than not the Raiders find ways to win whereas the Falcons find ways to lose. Las Vegas by a touchdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Chargers are better than most think. The Bills aren’t as good as most want to believe. The home team should still win, but I expect the visitors to give them a pretty good scare. Buffalo by a (last-second) field goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Bengals now have absolutely nothing going for them. The Giants, at 3-7, are in position to take the NFC East title. Somehow. New Jersey by seven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Having lost to the Colts in their own building two weeks ago, the Titans absolutely need a win here to stay alive in the AFC South race. Which is unfortunate for Tennessee, because the Titans are losing this game. Colts by four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Vikings should be able to control the game on the ground, set the tempo, and find a way to win. Not that any of it matters. Minnesota by three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Patriots are good enough to win some game, but not good enough to win enough of them. That may also be true of the Cardinals, but only because the NFC West is a tough division. Arizona takes this game by six.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let’s figure a starting quarterback with a thumb injury is a problem and look for the Dolphins to win this one by only six.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Just seven? Seriously? Because? Browns by 17.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Ravens had started to circle the bowl even before Covid hit their locker room. I’m gonna guess an extra three days doesn’t change a whole lot about either team or this matchup. Assuming the game is actually played, look for the Steelers to complete the season sweep and move one step closer to locking up the NFC North. Pittsburgh by six.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Saints get yet another game in which whom they line up behind center doesn’t much matter. New Orleans by four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This should just about do it for the Niners. Rams by four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You’ll hear mostly about quarterback play, and for good reason, but this game really comes down to which is the more complete team. Hint: It’s Kansas City. Chiefs by nine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Bears aren’t simply going to hand the Packers the NFC North. Thing is, though, the Bears ultimately don’t have the firepower to keep up. Green Bay by seven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yeah, these teams are both division leaders. But only one of them plays in a real division. Seahawks by six.<\/p>\n