The good news for me (I think … I guess) is that I probably can’t do any worse picking against the spread in week thirteen than I did in week twelve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When the Covid Bowl featuring Ravens-Steelers finally wrapped up at 3 a.m. on Friday (or, you know, something like that), I was a respectable 11-4 picking straight up for the week, and an absolutely dreadful 3-12 with the points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For the season, that puts me at 114-61-1 (.651) picking them straight, 76-95-5 against the spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let’s see what horrors await in week thirteen. Here’s what not to expect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
New Orleans<\/a> (-3) at<\/strong> Atlanta<\/a><\/strong> Detroit<\/a> (+3) at<\/strong> Chicago<\/a><\/strong> Cleveland<\/a> (+5) at<\/strong> Tennessee<\/a><\/strong> Cincinnati<\/a> (+10.5) at<\/strong> Miami<\/a><\/strong> Jacksonville<\/a> (+10) at<\/strong> Minnesota<\/a><\/strong> Las Vegas<\/a> (-7.5) at<\/strong> NY Jets<\/a><\/strong> Indianapolis<\/a> (-3) at<\/strong> Houston<\/a><\/strong> LA Rams<\/a> (-3) at<\/strong> Arizona<\/a><\/strong> NY Giants<\/a> (+11) at<\/strong> Seattle<\/a><\/strong> Philadelphia<\/a> (+8.5) at<\/strong> Green Bay<\/a><\/strong> New England<\/a> (+1.5) at<\/strong> LA Chargers<\/a><\/strong> Denver<\/a> (+13.5) at<\/strong> Kansas City<\/a><\/strong> Washington<\/a> (-7.5) at<\/strong> Pittsburgh<\/a><\/strong> Buffalo<\/a> (+1) at<\/strong> San Francisco<\/a><\/strong> Dallas<\/a> (+7.5) at<\/strong> Baltimore<\/a><\/strong>
The Saints didn’t have much trouble with the Falcons in New Orleans two weeks ago. And I don’t know what’s changed other than location. So let’s figure the home team finds a way to keep it semi-respectable and say Saints by four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sometimes it turns out that an organization really did just need a new coach. And sometimes it turns out that an organization needs a new organization. Bears by a touchdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Browns have made a case for being taken seriously. The Titans have given no one any choice but to take them seriously. It may be a fine distinction, but it’s a distinction all the same. Tennessee by a field goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Dolphins are trying to catch the Bills. The Bengals are cruising toward a top five pick in the 2021 draft. Miami by two touchdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Vikings are going nowhere. The Jaguars are going in reverse. Minnesota by 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sometimes it seems like the Raiders just don’t care whether they win or lose. And sometimes (this time) they face an opponent so bad they don’t need to care. Las Vegas by 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Division game. In Houston. Yeah, the Texans should probably be able to keep this one one close-ish. (It’ll be a different story in Indy two weeks from now.) Colts win it straight up; it’s a push with the points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With their chances at a wild card berth diminishing with each loss, and a division rival in town, I expect the hot-and-cold Cardinals to run hot the week. Arizona by a field goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It’s possible to cast this game as a matchup between division leading teams. Because the Giants play in the worst division ever. The Seahawks’ lack of a defense shouldn’t prove too much of an obstacle to victory this week. Seattle by 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Except that they’re still in the running for the NFC East title (at 3-7-1), there’s very little reason for the Eagles even to board the plane. Packers by 17.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Patriots at least seem to be trying to rise above their mediocrity. The Chargers appear to have settled in to theirs. New England controls the game on the ground and comes out ahead by a point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So the thinking here is what? That the Broncos, having lost to the Chiefs by 27 points in their own building just a few short weeks back, will find a way to cut that margin in half in Kansas City? Nope. Just don’t see it. Chiefs by 27 again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Steelers will be playing on five days rest, and with an ailing quarterback. Lucky for them they don’t have to face an actual professional football team. Pittsburgh by seven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Bills should be able to win this game, which probably means they’ll lose it. But I’m still picking Buffalo by a field goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Ravens are fading. The Cowboys have faded. Baltimore by 10.<\/p>\n