This Football Blog

Once again I find myself on starting my season predictions post by noting that there isn’t one good reason why I should be making them, nor one good reason why you should pay any attention to them. Why would you want to read what I think might possibly (but not probably) transpire over the course of five months of regular-season and post-season play in a professional sport in which it’s hard enough to predict what might happen over the next five days?

Let’s fact it: people who know a ton more than I do about pro football can’t get this stuff right. My chances of doing anything but stumbling into the odd lucky prediction are zero. If I had my head screwed on straight, I’d find something more productive to do with my time. You, too.

And yet here I still am. And here you still are. Go figure.

So let’s get on with this.

Regular Season Records
As with last year, I’m not gonna try to predict a final record for every team, because that’s too foolish an endeavor even for me. I will, however, tag a range of wins that I think each team is capable of (because, somehow, the avoidance of specificity actually makes me feel less like I’m wasting my time — and yours). So here’s that, division by division.

AFC East

New England, 13-15
Even with a depleted defense to open the season, it’s hard to imagine this team losing very many games. But no one goes 16-0.

NY Jets, 6-8
Can’t see the Jets not taking a step back from last season. There’s no one to surprise.

Buffalo, 5-7
Denver, at Pittsburgh, at New England, NY Jets and Dallas before the bye, Baltimore immediately after it. That’s a bitch of a way to open a season, especially when you’ve got no defense. And where go you from 1-5?

Miami, 3-5
The Dolphins get a nice trip to London out of this season. So they’ve got that going for them, which is nice.

AFC North

Baltimore, 10-13
This team was good last year when Steve McNair didn’t really know the offense.

Cincinnati, 9-11
In the end, you still have to be able to play defense to win consistently.

Pittsburgh, 6-8
Sure, Mike Tomlinson’s a good coach. That doesn’t make Ben Roethlisberger a good quarterback. Nor this anything other than a transition year.

Cleveland, 6-8
Sooner or later, Romeo, they’re gonna expect you to find a way to win games.

AFC South

Indianapolis, 9-11
The problem with creating a blueprint for beating your own defense in order to win a championship is that afterward everyone knows how to beat your defense.

Tennessee, 8-10
Continuing to move in the right direction.

Houston, 7-9
Watch Ahman Green have one more (and probably one last) great season as the system imported from Denver starts to kick in for real.

Jacksonville, 4-6
Say goodnight, Jack.

AFC West

San Diego, 10-12
Even Norv Turner should be able to succeed in the regular season with the talent on this team.

Denver, 10-12
Once Jay Cutler gets rolling, this team’s gonna be hell on wheels.

Oakland, 5-7
Get your roll on, Pep. The defense should keep the Raiders in games again this season. And the offense should be improved enough not to lose so many of them.

Kansas City, 3-6
Two things that can really help you win football games: A true starting quarterback and a defensive line. Maybe the Chiefs will be able to find some of what they need at the top of the 2008 draft.

NFC East

Philadelphia, 10-12
So long as Donovan McNabb can stay healthy (and I’m guessing he can), no one in the division can touch the Eagles.

Dallas, 8-10
I’m just not sure about Tony Romo.

Washington, 7-9
Yeah, they look better than this on paper, but they always look better than this on paper and they never pay it off on the field.

NY Giants
4-6
I’d predict Tom Coughlin gets fired at the end of the season, but I’m not sure he’ll last that long. Neither am I certain that Eli Manning will ever be a legitimate NFL quarterback. That Phillip Rivers sure looks talented, though, doesn’t he?

NFC North
Chicago, 9-11
Post-Super Bowl collapse? In this mediocre division? I can’t imagine. Don’t see the Bears chewing up opponents again this season, either, though.

Green Bay, 7-9
Sorry, Brett, but you can play until you’re 50 and you’re still not getting back to the Super Bowl.

Detroit, 6-8
It’s not Jon Kitna’s predicted 10, but it’s something. Sort of.

Minnesota, 4-6
There’s some nice young talent here, but the key word is young. Should be getting pretty good by the time they complete the move to L.A., though.

NFC South

New Orleans, 12-14
The Saints get four free victories this season thanks to the horrendous state of the Bucs and Falcons.

Carolina, 10-12
Good. But not good enough to take the division away from New Orleans.

Atlanta, 4-6
I’m rooting for Joey Harrington. So, you know, that ought to help.

Tampa Bay, 3-5
Wasn’t Jon Gruden supposed to be some kind of genius? What happened? And where’s his next stop?

NFC West
San Francisco, 8-10
This is where it all comes together. Look for the Niners actually win a playoff game – after the 2008 season.

St. Louis, 7-9
Steven Jackson alone will get you seven wins. I figure the rest of the Rams are good for one or two.

Seattle, 6-8
I do expect Deion Branch to catch a lot of balls this season. Way to show those Pats, Deion.

Arizona, 4-8
Lots and lots and lots of talent. And at last a competent coach. I just think it’s gonna take another year to kick in.

Playoffs

Since I’m here predicting the impossible to predict anyhow, might as well take a stab at the post season.

Seedings

AFC
1. New England
2. Baltimore
3. San Diego
4. Indianapolis
5. Cincinnati
6. Denver

NFC
1. New Orleans
2. Philadelphia
3. Chicago
4. San Francisco
5. Carolina
6. Dallas

Wild Card Round

AFC
Cincinnati defeats Indianapolis
San Diego defeats Denver

NFC
Chicago defeats Dallas
Carolina defeats San Francisco

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
San Diego defeats Baltimore
New England defeats Cincinnati

NFC
Philadelphia defeats Chicago
New Orleans defeats Carolina

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats San Diego
Philadelphia defeats New Orleans

Super Bowl XLII

New England defeats Philadelphia, 41-10.

Pro Bowl

Nobody knows what happens, because nobody watches.

So there it is. Your season at a glance. Except that at least one of the teams I think is gonna be great is actually gonna suck. And one of the teams I think is gonna suck is gonna be great. And also pretty much everything else I’ve predicted is gonna turn out to be either slightly off the mark or just plain old wrong.

Indianapolis (-7) vs. Chicago
So it looks like this will be the second straight year I find myself rooting against the likely winner in the Super Bowl. But what am I supposed to do? I mean, it’s not like I dislike the Colts. No all around, that is. I think Tony Dungy is a hard-working, smart, talented coach who probably deserves a ring (though the same could be said for Lovie Smith). And most of Indy’s players are guys I’d feel happy enough to see hoist the Lombardi Trophy. It’s just the matter of Peyton Manning and Bill Polian, two of the most insufferable assholes in professional football that I can’t get past. And, sure, it’s not like I love everyone on the Bears. I’d be plenty happy to see Tank Johnson get a taste of karma. But as disgusting as I find Johnson, it’s not quite enough to sway me to root against his team. Maybe it would be if the Bears were playing, say, the Ravens or the Chargers. But I’ve just hated Manning and Polian for so long. I can’t do anything but hope for the worst for their team.

So, look, it’s not like I think the Bears can’t win this game. In fact, I’m quite certain that they can. Chicago’s defense was among the best in the league during the regular season. They allowed only 294.1 yards of total offense and 15.9 points per game. And while they faltered some in their divisional round game against Seattle, the unit bounced back nicely in the NFC Championship, a game in which they were pitted against a rather high-powered Saints offense. Indeed, it was really the Chicago defense that won that game, in part by forcing four turnovers (including three fumbles, by a Saints team that only coughed the ball up nine times during the entire regular season) and got the team to the Super Bowl. Add to that the fact that the Bears offense isn’t nearly the half-competent unit it’s being cast as. Sure, Rex Grossman runs hot and cold (and can pose a major problem when he’s running cold), but the Chicago O still managed to put up 26.7 points per game during the regular season (which left them tied with the Colts for second most in the league). And the fact that they did that while only averaging a 324.9 yards per game (fewer than 14 other teams and fewer by nearly 55 yards than Indy) only speaks to the fact that their defense thrived on taking the ball away and giving the O short fields. Oh, right, and to the fact that they had maybe the best return man in the league in Devin Hester, a guy who found the end zone five times during the regular season and whose presence looms particularly large here given that the Colts allowed 270 return yards to New England in the AFC Championship. Plus, the Chicago O-line is big and physical, which is gonna make it tough for Indy’s D-line, which is built for speed, to get penetration.

All that said, it’s hard to imagine the Colts don’t find a way to win this game. Indy’s offense overcame two of the best defenses in the league to get this far (even if only barely in the divisional round). And the Colts defense, while still rather suspect to my mind, has performed exactly as well as it needed to in order to overcome Baltimore and New England. And, sure the Ravens offense wasn’t the class of the league this season, but it was solid. And New England’s O was clearly better than Chicago’s. I’m not gonna run down Indy’s stats. They’re out there. And they paint as clear a picture of a team that’s great on offense and so-so on defense as they ever have. And the fact remains that Indy managed to win games with exactly that imbalance all season, so I’m expecting them to do just that again in Miami.

I’m taking the Colts straight up, looking for the Bears to keep it to more like three, and hoping Chicago finds a way to come away with an outright victory.

Before I get into this weekend’s games, I’ve got some general observations to make, one about the conference championships, a couple of others about the remaining Super Bowl contenders, and one about my less than psychologically healthy second choice for a Super Bowl outcome.

I’ll start with the one that’s entirely specific to this weekend. It appears to me that Sunday’s games ultimately are going to come down to how well the home teams’ defenses play. Here’s why I see it that way: Chicago’s offense isn’t going to win the NFC Championship. And Indianapolis’ offense isn’t going to lose the AFC Championship. Meanwhile, both the New Orleans and New England Ds seem likely to play just well enough to give their offenses the opportunity to win their respective games. The questions for both home teams come at D. Will the Bears’ D be the stellar unit we saw through the regular season (allowing just 294 yards of total offense and, more important, just less than 16 points per game), or the unit that struggled to stop Seattle last weekend, giving up 24 points (though only 206 yards) to a team that hadn’t looked very good at all when it hosted Dallas a week earlier? And, conversely, will the Colts’ D be the sub-par unit that gave up nearly 333 yards (173 of them on the ground) and 22.5 points per game in the regular season or the one that has put the clamps down on Kansas City and Baltimore over the past two weeks? I’ve got some thoughts on both of those questions, which I’ll address below, but for now I just wanted to point out that I believe the answers that play out on the field ultimately will decide the weekend and determine which teams move on to Miami.

A semi-related observation about two of the remaining contenders, New Orleans and Indianapolis. I can’t tell you how utterly tired I am about hearing about how it’s these teams’ “time” to win a championship. Peyton Manning and the Colts have been too good for too long not to have won it all. It’s their time. The Saints have been struggling in futility for nearly 40 years. It’s their time. No, it ain’t. It isn’t ever any team’s time. Both the Colts and the Saints could very well win this weekend. And either may win the Super Bowl. But no matter what happens, it won’t be because it’s the team’s “time.” If the Colts win it all, it’ll be because they play better than the Patriots this weekend and better than whichever NFC team they face February 4. Simple as that. Same with New Orleans. If they’re the better team on Sunday, they’ll beat Chicago. And if they’re the better team two weeks hence, they’ll take the Lombardi Trophy. The time is never right. Or wrong. It just is. The outcome of a football game is no more determined by which team’s time has come than it’s determined by whether you sit on the right end of the couch, turn your bar stool around exactly three times clockwise between the first and second quarter and counterclockwise between the third and fourth, or touch your wife’s nose as the team’s line up for the opening kickoff. Anyone who tells you the outcome of a game has anything to do with anything even remotely spooky isn’t worth listening to. Not even a little bit.

Now then, a thought about all four remaining teams. It occurs to me that among the teams still in contention, you can find three outstanding quarterbacks, two who are arguably the best currently in the game and a third who is, at least, having the best season from a statistical standpoint of any QB in the league (guess who’s the odd man out). Also among these four teams are two of the top 10 defenses in the league (statistically speaking) and two of the top three scoring defenses (Chicago, as noted above, allowed just 15.9 points per game in the regular season; New England gave up fewer still: 14.8). The overlap (great quarterback and great defense) comprises exactly one team. Guess which? Might mean nothing in the end, but I figured I’d point it out.

Finally, I just wanted to say now that while what I’m hoping for in the Super Bowl is a New England victory (over either NFC team — doesn’t matter which, I just want to see the Pats get that fourth championship), if I can’t get that, I’d really dig watching the Saints top Colts. As a committed Manning hater, I have to believe the sense of schadenfreude I’d experience seeing the team Entitled Archie never could win with finally triumph at the expense of Pouty Peyton would almost make up for the Pats missing the big game. Almost.

New Orleans (+2.5) at Chicago
You know, I’ve spent a good part of the week trying to find a way to make myself believe that New Orleans is gonna win this game. I don’t know why (especially since I think the Patriots ultimately match up better against the Bears), but I really want the Saints to come out on top here. And, I mean, there are plenty of reasons to believe New Orleans not only could win, but should win. To begin with, the Saints had one of the best offenses in the league this season (maybe the best). During the regular season, they averaged a league-leading 391.5 yards of total offense (110.1 on the ground, 281.4 through the air, the latter of which also put the at the top of the league) and a fifth-best 25.8 points per game. And they managed 435 yards (208 of them on the ground) and 27 points in last week’s divisional playoff game against an Eagles team that had allowed only 328 yards and 20.5 points a game during the regular season (and slightly less than that against the Giants in the wild card round). With the way Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister and the rookies Reggie Bush and Marques Colston have played, the Saints offense is a threat on every single snap. On top of that, New Orleans has been solid if unspectacular on defense. More than solid, in fact. Only 10 teams in the league allowed fewer yards per game than the Saints (307.6). Only two allowed fewer yards per game in the air than New Orleans’ 178 (though that stat has at least something to do with the fact that it was fairly easy to run the ball against the Saints; they allowed 128 rushing yards per game and an abysmal 4.9 yards per carry). And while the 20.1 points per game New Orleans surrendered during the season is anything but spectacular, it’s still a better average than was posted by 19 other teams (though only one of those, Indianapolis, has survived this deep into the post-season). It’s worth noting that Philly’s offense had rather a productive day in New Orleans last week, posting 355 total yards, including 123 on the ground (a painful 6.2 per carry) and 24 points. But then you’ve got to look at that in context: the Eagles offense was the second most productive in the league this season, right behind the Saints.

Certainly, from a statistical perspective, the Saints have a better defense than Chicago has an offense. At the end of the regular season, the Bears O ranked in the middle of the pack in yards per game with 324.9, rushing yards per game, with 119.9 (their 3.8 per carry tied with Tampa Bay for the ninth lowest average in the league), and passing yards per game, with 205.1. Still, Chicago did finish in tie with Indianapolis for second most points per game in the league (26.7), and that’s a number that has to be considered. (It’s also a statistic we’ll look at in further depth presently.) And the Bears had a hell of a day against the Seahawks last weekend, racking up 375 total yards of offense (including 120 on the ground, though they still only averaged 3.5 per carry). But the Seattle D hadn’t exactly stopped anyone this season, so it’s not like Chicago broke loose against a top-notch unit.

Thing is, though, the Bears don’t win with offense. They win with defense. And I’m not expecting Lovie Smith to try turning his team into something it isn’t in the middle of January. If Chicago is gonna win this game, they’re gonna do it by keeping New Orleans out of the end zone, just like they did to their opponents all season long (though, as noted above, that’s just like they didn’t a week ago). When its on its game, the Bears D is a unit that’s incredibly tough to overcome. Those 294 yards per game it allowed included less than 100 on the ground. And the 15.9 points per game were third fewest in the league, trailing only Baltimore (12.6) and New England (14.8). Historically, the teams that allow the fewest points per game in the regular season have fared rather well in the playoff. But, really, to my mind the thing Chicago’s D does that’s perhaps more important than stopping opposing offenses is setting up its own. Remember those odd stats related to the Bears O putting up average to below average yardage but outscoring most of the league? Here’s why: The Chicago D is the best in the league at liberating the ball from opposing offenses. The bears had 43 takeaways during the season, including a league-leading 20 fumbles recovered (their 23 picks trailed only Baltimore’s 26). That set up the offense with some mighty short fields, and, even with the offense’s tendency to commit turnovers itself, left Chicago tied with San Diego for the league’s second-best a giveaway/takeaway ratio. Chicago finished the regular season with +13. New Orleans, on the other hand, wrapped up -2. (Both teams were -1 last weekend). That’s a 15-turnover differential in Chicago’s favor. And that’s where I think this game might turn. For all that New Orleans has going for it, the Saints are going to have virtually no margin for error going up against this Chicago D. That’s a tough situation for a young team with a first-year head coach to be in. Particularly if the Bears D plays up to its regular season levels. And since one game is hardly a trend, that’s just what I’m expecting to see. The Saints still could overcome that if their offense plays flawlessly and their defense finds a way to exploit Chicago’s offensive weaknesses. But that’s where New Orleans’ inexperience in the post-season comes in. That’s what ultimately killed the Bears last season. This year, much as I want things to be different for the Saints, I think it works in Chicago’s favor. I’m rooting for New Orleans, but I’m taking Chicago and giving the points.

New England (+3) at Indianapolis
You know, I just don’t have it in me to get into the whole here we go again, Patriots and Colts, classic AFC matchup of the decade, blah, blah, blah, thing. But I’ll say this: you can talk all you want (if you’re with the Colts) about this game just being this game and all the history (between the two teams and with the Colts folding in the playoffs year after year) meaning nothing, but the bottom line is that all the pressure here is on the Colts. The fact of the matter is that the Colts, anointed the best team in the league by the sports media season after season, have never yet been able to close the deal. Not once. They lose to “lesser” teams in the playoffs every season. And if they lose now that they’ve got the conference championship in their stadium, there’s two ways they can go: they can fade out of contention and be the Buffalo Bills, the team that always found a way to lose when it matters, or they can power on, maybe win everything eventually and be the team that struggled for years and years then finally managed to win one and sort of salvage its legacy. That’s it. They can’t lose here and hope ever to be considered one of the all-time great NFL squads (that is, all-time great squads as opposed to all-time great franchises, a tag a different Colts team earned decades ago). Manning can’t afford to lose this game. Tony Dungy can’t afford to miss this game. The whole loud-mouthed, self-congratulating Colts organization can’t afford to lose this game. The Patriots? Forget that their legacy is sealed (they’re three-time champs; they don’t have to win any game to prove anything). They’re a team that started the season in turmoil, worked through the season with an almost completely overhauled wide receiver corps, continued to play well even while injuries once again put a new face on their defensive secondary nearly every week, and still managed not only to win their division, but to beat yet another one seed on the road in the playoffs — in yet another game they were supposed to lose. Sure, the Pats want to win this one. Sure, it’ll be disappointing to them and their fans if they lose. But they’ve already, both as a franchise and a squad, exceeded all reasonable expectations. What pressure could they conceivably be feeling? But wait. Isn’t that the kind of spooky shit I decry above? Well, no, because it can affect game preparation, decision-making, and execution on the field. That said, I don’t expect it to play a deciding factor in this game. It may color the outcome, but ultimately, as noted, I think this game is going to have much more to do with the play of the Colts D than any other factor. And, much as I expect Chicago’s defense to look more like the unit we saw in the regular season than the one we saw struggle some against Seattle last week, I’m anticipating seeing an Indianapolis defense that’s more like the regular season unit than the one that performed so well against Kansas City and Baltimore in the post season.

Here’s why I put more stock in the long-term stats than the short-term semi-trend when I look at the Colts D. In its wild card weekend matchup with Kansas City, Indianapolis faced an offense that was decidedly unbalanced. More than that, the Chiefs, offense was as one-dimensional as offenses get. Even with Larry Johnson, the second-leading rusher in the league this season starring in their backfield, the Chiefs only managed 133.9 yards per game on the ground this season. That’s fewer than eight other teams (though, notably, more than any team currently still alive in the playoffs, where conventional wisdom holds that you have to be able to run the ball to win — the leading rushing team still playing, by the way, is the Patriots, who averaged 123.1 yards a game on the ground during the regular season). Kansas City’s 187.5 yards a game passing this season was the lowest average by any team to qualify for the playoffs. And since the Chiefs’ coach isn’t exactly known as one of the league’s great creative game planners, Indianapolis didn’t have to spend a lot of time guessing what the Chiefs were gonna try to do on offense in that game. They stacked the box, took Johnson out of the game and challenged Kansas City to beat them through the air, knowing the Chiefs couldn’t pull it off. Playing at Baltimore in the divisional round, the Colts faced an offense that was more balanced than Kansas City’s, but it was balanced in mediocrity. And the Ravens team itself was most certainly unbalanced in favor of defense. Baltimore’s defense was the best in the league this season, and the reason the Ravens won the AFC North and captured the conference two seed. It’s offense was middle of the pack overall (averaging 317 yards and 22 points a game), short in the rushing game (102.3 yards per game, 3.4 per carry) and slightly above average through the air (214.7 yards per game). The Colts D played well enough to stop that average offense, mostly by forcing turnovers, and gave their own O the opportunity to win the game by doing what little it could against a daunting Ravens D. There’s nothing to be ashamed of in that, but it’s not as if the Colts D shut down New Orleans, Philadelphia, San Diego, or even New England. This week, the Colts face a team that’s more balanced than either of its previous playoff opponents. In the regular season, the Patriots defense allowed only 294.1 yards (sixth best in the league, second to Chicago among the surviving playoff teams) and 15.9 points a game (second best in the league, after Baltimore, best among the surviving playoff teams. They ranked fifth in the league (best among the surviving playoff teams) against the run, giving up 94.2 yards per game (though their 3.9 yards per carry leaves something to be desired). And while their 200.2 passing yards per game was only 12th best in the league, it’s notable that they allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league (10) while logging the fourth highest number of picks (22), second only to Chicago among surviving playoff teams.

The Patriots did not have a top 10 offense in the regular season in terms of average total yards, posting an 11th best 335.6, but their O was the seventh-highest scoring in the league (24.1 points per game). They rushed for 123.1 yards per game (12th) and threw for 212.5 (12th), the latter statistic skewed by the fact that, as mentioned, the team was working with new faces at WR throughout the season. In the post-season, New England has averaged 342.5 yards (104.5 on the ground, 238 in the air) and 30.5 points per game (the highest average point total in the playoffs). That may not represent a trend any more than Indy’s post-season defensive stats, but it’s notable that the defenses New England has faced over the last two weeks were statistically more impressive than the offenses Indy’s taken on.

What’s important, however, is that the Colts can’t simply play the run or the pass on D this week, nor can they count on their offense to shoulder the full load of a victory. Their defense is gonna have to account for Tom Brady, Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney. Their offense is gonna have to find a way to overcome the best defensive front in the league. They’re likely going to have to play great football on both sides of the ball if they’re gonna win this game. And the overall trend is that they only play great football on one side of the ball, so that’s what I’m expecting until I see different. Certainly, the same goes for New England. They can’t expect to make mistakes and come out ahead purely by virtue of experience and coaching the way they did a week ago. This team may or may not be as talented as San Diego, but its more battle tested and it will be better prepared.

In the end, I actually expect both teams to play good football. But in the end, I also expect the more balanced team to triumph. That’s the Patriots. So I’m taking them to pull off the upset and head to their fourth Super Bowl in six years.

Looks to me like we’ve got three potentially incredible football games and just one dud ahead of us. You can’t ask for a whole lot more than that. Here’s what not to expect:

Indianapolis (+4) at Baltimore
Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Colts defense came alive in last week’s win over Kansas City. Hey, if you want to see it that way, you go right ahead. But that ain’t what happened. What happened in that game is that old Schottenheimer lite, for all his talk during the week about how he was gonna change quarterbacks if his starter wasn’t getting the job done, had himself a game plan and stuck to it like it was the goddamn Code of Hammurabi, even when it was obvious to everyone else in the universe that his offensive approach wasn’t getting the job done. Any defense can stop a team that keeps doing the same thing over and over and over again. (Seriously, look at the play-by-play on that game. Run, run, pass, punt. It’s quintessential Martyball.) So don’t tell me Indy’s defense came on, because what happened is Indy’s defense got lucky. Wicked lucky. And so did Indy’s offense. Because in nine out of ten games in which you turn the ball over three times and walk away from your first seven trips into your opponent’s territory with all of nine points on the board you don’t come out on top. It’s as simple as that. Now, do I expect Baltimore’s defense to have as good a day (or better) against Indianapolis as Kansas City’s D did? No. And yes. That is, no, I don’t expect one of the best quarterbacks in the league to be picked off three times two weeks in a row. That would be ridiculous. But, yes, I expect the Ravens defense, which allowed the fewest points per game in the league this season (12.6), to hold Manning and company to fewer than 23 points. Maybe the Colts manage 17. Maybe they only score 10. I don’t know. But I’m confident they won’t post three-plus touchdowns. On the other hand, I do expect the Ravens’ offense to perform much, much better than KC’s did. I mean, to begin with Brian Billick ain’t Herm Edwards (which is really to say he’s not some low-rent clone of Marty Schottenheimer). He’s gonna adapt to what he sees on the field and find a way to take what Indy gives him. (For obvious reasons, I expect that to be the run, but I won’t be surprised if it turns out to be short passes or something else entirely, which, of course, will end up setting up the run.) And beyond that, Steve McNair ain’t Trent Green. McNair is a battle-tested, tough-guy quarterback who will find ways to wear you down and who will do whatever it takes to beat you. He’ll play until the last snap of the ball. And he’ll make you pay for trying to stop him and his team. Billick’s game planning, McNair’s leadership, and the overall toughness of the Ravens (particularly their D), I think, is gonna be all it takes to send the Colts home for yet another off-season of wondering what on earth went wrong. (Hint: although the tendency is gonna be to heap all the blame on this guy and what he hasn’t accomplished, the organization should also be taking a hard look at this asshole and what he most decidedly does not bring to the table.) Ravens by six.

Philadelphia (+5) at New Orleans
You know, if it weren’t for the fact that Lito Sheppard is hurt, I’d be sorely tempted to pick the upset here. I mean, look, there’s no question but that the Saints are a terrific football team. Drew Brees has been playing the best football of his career. Reggie Bush has come on like crazy. Deuce McAllister is very much back from his injury (and back to being one of my favorite running back’s to watch). They should create a special Value Pick of the Year award for Marques Colston. And the New Orleans D, while shaky against the run, is one of the better units in the league at stopping the pass. But, you know, the Eagles are red hot. The Eagles are used to playing in January (whereas the Saints most certainly are not). And the Eagles have Brian Westbrook who’s made more than one team pay dearly for having a shaky run D this season. They also have Jeff Garcia who simply has a way of winning tough games. Plus, while he’s done an amazing job, Sean Payton is still a first-year head coach, which isn’t a good position to be in when you’re leading a team with no playoff experience and you’re facing a team and a coach with tons of it. Further, while I don’t believe for a minute that Joe Horn’s lingering groin injury will keep him out of this game, I do expect it will limit his ability to contribute. So am I saying that even with everything I think the Eagles have going for them, the absence of one DB will make all the difference? Not so much. I guess what I’m saying is that I think Sheppard’s injury might be the straw that breaks this camel’s back. The Eagles have rolled with a losing a lot of key players to injury this season. Eventually, that’s gotta catch up with you. And something tells me it happens here. I won’t be shocked if Philadelphia still manages to win this game, but I’m going with the Saints to win it by four.

Seattle (+8.5) at Chicago
I sure do hope the folks in Seattle enjoyed their little gift from Tony Romo last Saturday night. Because that’s all this team’s getting this January. The Seahawks played horribly against the Cowboys on wild card weekend. Horribly. And the fact of the matter is that the only team that deserved to win less than Seattle in round one of the playoffs was Dallas. The Bears, with their stifling defense, won’t make it so easy. In fact, I think they’ll make it pretty much impossible, beating the Seahawks by a minimum of 14 points.

New England (+4.5) at San Diego
It’s probably way too simplistic to say that this game comes down to coaching. But this game comes down to coaching. Because, look, if you want to talk about players, that’s fine, but you end up doing a lot of talking and ultimately not coming to any real conclusions. That is, if you’re a Chargers fan, you can focus on how you’ve got the league MVP (not to mention a guy who may well turn out to be the greatest ever at his position) at running back. Or make reference to your bevy of Pro Bowlers (which is impressive even if it includes a guy who has no business winning any honor). Or your impressive list of all pros (sullied though it is by the same cheater). And there’s nothing wrong with focusing on that stuff. Those guys are what made your team so hard to beat through the regular season. They’re the major reason the Chargers are seeded first in the AFC, and one of the reasons the team is favored by half again the home-team default spread here. On the other hand, if you’re a Patriots fan, you can spend all your time thinking about the fact that you’ve got the best post-season quarterback in the game (maybe in the history of the game) and also arguably the best QB in the league, running your offense. Or how Bill Belichick says the team’s current trio of running backs comprises the best RBs he’s ever coached. Or how the Pats’ stout defense, which is particularly effective in stopping the run, includes arguably the best D line in the league. And why not concentrate on stuff like that? These are some of reasons the Patriots are the most dangerous team in the NFL right now, a team that clearly can win it all even though it won’t play another home game until September. But if you want to compare the teams, and you start looking at how players stack up against players, you end up going nowhere fast. The Chargers have the best running back. The Patriots have the best quarterback. The Chargers have the all pro linebackers. The Patriots have the killer down linemen. The Chargers have a bit of an edge at tight end, though not nearly as much of an edge as Chargers fans think (because while Ben Watson has yet to prove that he’s on par with Antonio Gates, Watson has the benefit of having a better guy delivering the ball). The Patriots, though you might find it hard to believe, have a bit of an edge at wide receiver. You could go on and on all day. And then you could start to talk about balance. You could point out that if the Patriots are able to limit Tomlinson, the Chargers will have to rely on Philip Rivers, who struggled some in the latter part of the regular season, to come up big in his first-ever playoff start, whereas if the Chargers are able to hem in Brady, the Patriots can look to Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney and, to a lesser extent, Kevin Faulk, a situation that would appear to favor the Patriots. Or you could note that New England’s defense can’t ever stop playing the pass (Tomlinson has thrown two touchdowns this season, six in his career), whereas San Diego’s defense can afford to bring DBs up to stop the run in some situations, which would seem to give an edge to the Chargers. And, again, you can do that kind of thing all day and end up nowhere. So in the end, you’ve got to talk about coaching. When you do that, one thing is obvious. Belichick, the best game planner in football, is gonna come in prepared to show the Chargers some things they’re not expecting. On both sides of the ball. And he’s going to make adjustments during the game based on what the Chargers show him. It’s a good bit harder to say what Marty Schottenheimer’s likely to do. Schottenheimer’s history, of course, is one of playing it safe, stubbornly sticking to game plans even when it’s clear they’re not working (and, in particular, stubbornly sticking with the run even in situations where he needs to get his passing game going), and losing big games as a result. Conventional wisdom says he stopped doing that this season, but I’m not sure that’s true. I guess Marty’s game plans have been a bit more freewheeling of late, but that’s easy to do when everything is working. At times when things have started to break down a bit, it seems to me, Schottenheimer’s tended to revert to form. In those situations, the Chargers have only succeeded because of Tomlinson’s superhuman talent. That won’t work against the Patriots. If New England’s able to slow down Tomlinson and start forcing Rivers to make bad decisions and commit turnovers, and Marty responds by going conservative, the Chargers are gonna find themselves in a deep hole that’s just gonna get deeper. The only thing I’m sure of here is that if Marty lets his team play, it’s gonna be a game, but if he digs in and does the Martyball thing, it’s gonna be a rout. And all I know is what’s come before, which has been a lot of Martyball. So I’m taking the Pats to pull off an upset, though I couldn’t begin to say whether this game will come down to the last play or be over by halftime.

Chances are two of my wild card round picks will be wrong. How do I know this? Well, it’s been a bitch of a year, and things aren’t looking any clearer to me now than they were in early September. Still, I’m determined to keep picking. So here’s what not to expect:

Kansas City (+7) at Indianapolis
OK, so we all know that the Colts can’t stop the run, right? We all know Indy has allowed an astonishing 173 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry, and 20 rushing touchdowns, which makes their run D officially the worst in the league. We also all know that Kansas City’s rushing offense, powered by Larry Johnson, has managed 134 yards per game, 4.2 per carry and 17 TDs. And that clearly does not bode well for the Colts. But are we also all aware that the only time the Colts have faced a Herm Edwards-coached team in the playoffs (a 2002-03 wild card round matchup between the 9-7 New York Jets and the 10-6 Colts), Indy was humiliated 41-0 (and Peyton Manning went 14 for 31 with two picks)? Or that Ty Law has intercepted Manning three times in the post season? Of course, none of that should be construed as meaning the Chiefs have this game in the bag. It’s gonna be very hard for Kansas City’s below-average pass defense to shut down Indy’s extremely potent passing offense, unless Law (or Patrick Surtain, Sammy Knight or Greg Wesley — or some combination of the four) manages another three picks. That’s hardly a given. The Chiefs have only managed 14 interceptions all season. And while I sort of suspect the uncertainty surrounding who’ll start at QB for Kansas City ultimately favors the Chiefs (it’s hard to prepare to face two quarterbacks), there’s simply no way to state with certainty that it does. So I guess where I’m going here is I kind of expect the Chiefs to manage the upset, but I won’t be shocked if it turns out I’m wrong. The only thing I ultimately feel confident in predicting is that if either team establishes a lead of 10 points or more any time after the middle of the second quarter, the game is over.

Dallas (+3) at Seattle
Seems like maybe Matt McBriar and Ryan Plackemeier could take the day off. It’s hard to imagine either team in this tilt needing to call on its punter, given that neither defense would appear to have any hope of slowing down, let alone stopping, the other team’s offense. Over the last four weeks of the season, during which time the team went 1-3, the Cowboys defense gave up an average of 33 points per game. That’s half again their season average. And those final numbers include 39 points allowed to the lowly Detroit Lions (a team that managed less than half that in an average game this season) in a rather meaningful game last weekend. The Seahawks, also 1-3 in the last quarter of the season (this despite the fact that both their starting quarterback and starting running back were back on the field after missing time due to injury), haven’t allowed nearly so many points as the Cowboys (largely hewing to within a few points of its season average of about 20 per game), but their secondary has been notably weak. They lost their last real starting DB in last week’s meaningless game at Tampa Bay. And that has the Hawks hoping that a trio of guys they picked up off the street this week can help them stop a Dallas offense that’s been good for about 361 yards (240 of them in the air) and 27 points per game this season. The only proven way to stop the Dallas passing attack is with interceptions, and even the Seahawks’ starting DBs didn’t manage too many of those this season (their 12 is tied for seventh least in the league). So what’s it all mean? I dunno. But here are my guesses: 1) Bet the over (it’s 46.5 as I write). 2) If you can find a prop bet on number of punts and you can put your money on fewer than six, you should be golden. 3) Expect whichever team has the ball last to win. I’m gonna say that’ll be Dallas, but I’ve got no real reason to believe it. It’s just a hunch, which is as good as you’re gonna get with this game. (Oh, by the way, whoever comes out on top is toast in the divisional round.)

NY Jets (+9) at New England
This is a tough one, not because it’s so close, but because it isn’t and it feels like it should be. Look, on one hand, anyone who tells you the Jets can’t win this game is an utter fool. The Jets can win. To begin with, they’ve already beat the Patriots in Foxborough once this season. So it’s clearly something they’re capable of. Plus, there’s no element of surprise in this one. The teams know each other. And the coaches obviously know each other. And there’s no question but that this Jets team has made a season-long habit of winning games they had no business winning. And you’ve gotta respect that. Nonetheless, it remains a fact that the Patriots are more than jut the home team, and more than simply one of the best post-season squads in NFL history. The Pats are also statistically superior to the Jets in every single aspect of the game. Every one. And not by just a little bit. New England has averaged 336 yards of total offense (123 on the ground, 213 in the air) and 24 points a game, while New York has managed only 306 yards (109 and 197) and 20 points. On defense, the Pats have allowed only 294 yards (94, 200) and less than 15 points a game, while the Jets have given up 332 yards (a huge 130 of them on the ground) and though they’ve only given up 18 points on average, that’s still 20 percent more than the Pats. The Patriots also have performed better on special teams. And in giveaway/takeaway ratio, a key stat to look at in assessing any game that’s likely to be hard fought, the Pats are +5 while the Jets come in at -3. So what is one supposed to do other than anticipate a Patriots victory? I mean, in the end, you’ve gotta figure that when the better team is playing at home, they’re more likely than not gonna find a way to win. By nine? Maybe, though I wouldn’t bet on. Games between division rivals are rarely so one-sided, even when they’re statistically as one-sided as this one.

NY Giants (+6.5) at Philadelphia
Look, I like the Giants. Really. I always have and I always will (though I’ve liked ’em more in the past and I’ll like ’em more again after Crybaby and King Douchebag are out of the picture). But I’m not gonna lie. I’m not only expecting the Eagles to take this game; I’m rooting for Philadelphia. There are a few reasons for that. First, as I’ve stated before, I’m a fan of Jeff Garcia. I like seeing him do well, especially at a time when Asshole Owens is faltering in Dallas. Second, I think the Eagles have a shot at advancing to the Super Bowl. The Giants don’t. Even if they get out of this weekend, the Giants aren’t beating Chicago or New Orleans. And I’d rather see Garcia get a chance to go all the way to Miami than the Giants get a chance to lose on the road next weekend. Third, and most important, I’m convinced that what’s best for the Giants over the long term is for Tom Coughlin to be gone. I’m certain he will be if the Giants drop this game, but if New York manages to advance, Coughlin’s probably gonna get another season. So I want the Giants to lose here so they have a better chance of winning next season. All that said, what I want or don’t want has nothing to do with anything. Here’s what does matter: The Eagles are the hottest team in football. They come into this game on a five-week winning streak that pushed them from third place in the division to the NFC East championship. The Giants enter the post-season limping, having lost six of their last eight games. Philly has the second most potent offense in the league. New York is ranked 14. Philly has an average defense. New York’s out downright bad. And, of course, the Eagles are at home. I’m taking Philly, giving the points and hoping the Giants are able to talk (or buy) Bill Cowher out of retirement.

This is remarkable. I can’t remember a single season in which so many teams had playoff hopes heading into week 17. And, sure, when you’re in the position of the Jacksonville Jaguars, there’s not a whole lot of reason to even talk about those hopes (or really even to call them hopes — they’re more like semi-grounded daydreams), but the fact that the list is so long and that also many teams have something to play for at this point sure does make things exciting. Makes you glad for Paul Tagliabue and his quest to promote competitive balance, too. Thanks, Paul. What it doesn’t do, particularly when you factor in the teams that, for one reason or another, have nothing to play for this weekend, is make for easy picking. Here’s my best stab at sizing up the final week of the regular season. Expect nothing you read here to happen.

NY Giants (-2.5) at Washington
Man, the Giants are in full-on collapse. Maybe the only thing crazier than the fact that New York can essentially clinch a playoff spot with a win is the fact that they can lose and still back into the playoffs at 7-9 (and losers of seven of their final eight games). I think they come up short in the end. And I expect to see Tom Coughlin standing on the unemployment line before the coin hits the ground in the first game of the post-season. Redskins by a touchdown.

Carolina (-3) at New Orleans
It can’t make teams like Atlanta too happy to know that the Saints, who have nothing to play for having locked up the NFC two seed (they can’t catch Chicago for the one) are probably gonna hand a win to the Panthers. Of course, it’s not like the Falcons have half a chance to win anyhow. New Orleans’ starters (minus a few banged up guys who are getting the whole week off) build a bit of a lead in the first half, but Carolina gets it back against the Saints’ backups in the second, and comes out on top by a point.

Cleveland (+4) at Houston
Yes, there is a reason to be excited about this game. When its over, we won’t have to think about either of these teams at least until draft day. So there’s that. Houston by six.

Detroit (+12.5) at Dallas
Quick, who’s more clueless, Terrell Owens or Matt Millen? OK, so it’s a trick question. The correct answer is William Clay Ford. The Cowboys lock up the five seed, and the opportunity to play for exactly one more week, with a 14-point victory over the Lions, who lock up the first pick in the 2007 draft, and a chance to ruin yet another high-potential college player.

Jacksonville (+2.5) at Kansas City
It’s the battle of the playoff longshots. Win and you’re probably still not in. I’m sad to say, I see Kansas City coming out ahead (by, let’s say a touchdown) which means we’ll once again have to spend a chunk of the off-season listening to Carl Peterson whine about how too few teams make the playoffs (when in fact 12 out of 32 is possibly too many and probably just enough).

New England (+3) at Tennessee
I’ve got no reason to believe this game won’t go to the Titans, who are playing for the remote hope of making the post season and with the very real goal of finishing this season on a very strong note (closing with seven straight wins and a 9-7 record after starting 0-5 would be rather impressive). And that’s got a lot to do with the fact that I have no reason to believe that the Patriots, who would be playing for nothing more solid than the off chance of snatching the three seed from Indianapolis (they’d need Indy to fall to Miami at home, which could happen but likely won’t), will actually show up to play. I can’t see Tom Brady (and a handful of other New England starters) spending much time on the field in this one. And still, there’s a little voice in my head telling me the Pats are gonna pull out an oddball win here. I’m not putting a dime on this game, but purely for fun, I’ll take the Pats to edge the Titans (and not care in the least when it turns out I was wrong).

Oakland (+12.5) at NY Jets
Seriously? Twelve and a half points? I can’t see the Jets scoring that many points against the Raiders defense, regardless of what’s on the line. Oh, sure, I expect the Jets to win, and to qualify for the AFC six seed in the process, but I expect them to do it by a score of something along the lines of 6-0.

Pittsburgh (+6) at Cincinnati
When all is said and done, this game will turn out to have been nothing but a battle between the season’s biggest bust and yet another also-ran squad from Cincinnati. While it’s going on, however, the Bengals will be playing for the hope of sneaking into the playoffs through the dog door around the side. And that should be enough to lift them over the Steelers. By four.

Seattle (+3.5) at Tampa Bay
Even with their starters in for much, if not all, of the game, it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks (who have sewn up the NFC four seed and can’t do any better) putting in much of an effort here. That bodes well for the Patriots, who have Seattle’s first-round draft pick and no doubt would love to see Deion and the gang finish 8-8. Tampa Bay by a touchdown.

St. Louis (-2) at Minnesota
Minnesota should have little trouble controlling St. Louis on the ground. And that’s nice for the Vikings. Thing is, the Rams mostly throw the ball. And having a miserable pass defense doesn’t tend to work out too well for you when you face a team that relies so heavily on its pass offense. So I’m gonna go ahead and take the Rams and give the two.

Arizona (+13.5) at San Diego
Do I have to say anything about this game? A win hands San Diego the AFC one seed. A loss and the Chargers probably drop to the two. That, and the fact that Arizona has allowed 115 yards a game on the ground this season when they weren’t facing maybe the best running back ever to play the game, is about what you need to know. Chargers by 20, minimum.

Atlanta (+7.5) at Philadelphia
I’ve never cared much for the Eagles, but I can’t tell you how much it delights me to see good old Jeff Garcia proving everybody wrong about him yet again. Right now, I look at the Eagles as one of two NFC teams with a legit shot of making it to Miami on February 4. This week, the Eagles bludgeon the Falcons.

Buffalo (+9) at Baltimore
You know, you’ve gotta respect what Buffalo has done this season. With the way they’re improving and the way the Jets are improving, you’ve gotta figure the AFC East is gonna be a very competitive three-team division next season (with the Dolphins left out in the cold). As for this weekend, well, the Ravens are one of the two or three best teams in football. Maybe they’re the best. And they’re playing to lock up the two seed. Baltimore wins this game by 10 or more.

Miami (+9) at Indianapolis
I’m not entirely ready to count Miami out of this game, given that the Fins have an impressive defense and a decent running game. Plus, you never know, maybe Cleo Lemon turns out to be a guy who lives up to his potential now that he’s been given a shot. Still, with the Colts playing to shore up the AFC three seed, and possibly for the two, you have to believe the Colts are gonna find a way to walk away with a win. I don’t see Indy coming out ahead by nine, but six or seven wouldn’t shock me.

San Francisco (+10.5) at Denver
The 49ers certainly appear to be a team headed in the right direction. And you kind of have to be rooting for Frank Gore to make it to 1,600 yards (he needs 58 here). But Denver’s playing for a wild card berth. And the Broncos are at home. That should add up to a Denver victory, I’m guessing by something along the lines of nine points.

Green Bay (+2.5) at Chicago
It won’t be clear until mid-afternoon whether Green Bay will be playing for a playoff spot here. I kind of think they will. But even if they’re out of it, I still think the Packers will be looking to ensure that Brett Favre’s career closes with a win. And considering the fact that the Bears have absolutely nothing to play for, having sewn up home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, I’m thinking the Pack has the edge. Green Bay by a field goal.

I’ll say this for competitive balance (parity, whatever you want to call it): I can’t remember a time when there were 24 teams with something meaningful to play for heading into week 16 (and one of the teams that has nothing to play for is the one that has clinched home field through the NFC playoffs). So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice. Now, if I could just get to the point where all the damned parity didn’t make it so entirely impossible for me to figure out what’s gonna happen in most games. Here’s what not to expect in week sixteen.

Minnesota (+3.5) at Green Bay
So ya think maybe years from now someone will note that Tarvaris Jackson’s first NFL start came in the same game as Brett Favre’s last start at Lambeau Field? Neither do I. Packers by a touchdown.

Kansas City (-6.5) at Oakland
Who cares about the outcome of this game? Well, Kansas City fans, certainly. And Denver fans. And, of course, Brady Quinn, Troy Smith and a select number of other young men who may be doomed to begin their careers with a team with no hope of becoming competitive any time in the foreseeable future. If the folks in Colorado and the 2007 draft class could will Oakland to win, they’d pull off the upset. But since that’s not gonna happen, Kansas City takes this game by six.

Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh
I don’t care who the Ravens start at quarterback or where the game is played. Baltimore’s a better team than Pittsburgh. The Ravens brutalized the Steelers just four weeks ago. And Baltimore’s playing for a first-round bye, while Pittsburgh is, at best, playing to keep the fantasy of a wild card berth alive for another six days. The Ravens probably won’t have quite the day they had in week 12, but they still win this one by no fewer than four.

Carolina (+6.5) at Atlanta
You could have looked at the schedule all the way back in August and felt certain that this game would have some kind of playoff implications. Maybe you’d have thought it would be the game to decide the NFC South championship. Or the game in which Carolina could clinch home field through the playoffs, or at least a first-round bye. But you’d never in a million years have guessed that this game would find the Panthers all but officially eliminated from playoff contention and striving to pull what’s left of the rug out from under the Falcons. And still, here we are. Falcons by three.

Chicago (-5) at Detroit
Lovie Smith’s claims to the contrary notwithstanding, something tells me there will be more Chicago starters than Detroit fans watching this game before all is said and done. And still I expect the Bears not only to win, but to cover. Nice work if you can get it, eh Matt?

Indianapolis (-9) at Houston
Wake me when it’s over. Colts by 17.

New England (+2.5) at Jacksonville
Yup, sure is nice for the Patriots that they were able to “right the ship” by pounding on the hapless Texans last week. (OK, maybe that’s a bit harsh. It was a good win for the Pats. But … well, you know.) Now let’s see New England put a hurting on a good team. Or at least turn in a solid performance and walk away with a well earned victory. If that happens, and if the team can find a way to start getting healthier, I’ll start truly expecting great things from the Pats in January. Facing the Jags just as they’re beginning to experience injury problems of their own should help, as should the fact that New England matches up fairly well against Jacksonville. I’m looking for an upset here, if a narrow one.

New Orleans (+3) at NY Giants
You know what? I was just typing the words “I’d love to believe the Giants have a chance to win this game,” and then it occurred to me that what I was saying was a load of bullshit. Because I’m done rooting for the Giants for the 2006 season. Done. I’ve put up with the team having not only a Manning, but the lesser (least, I guess) Manning (a guy who looks more and more like bust and whose name sounds more and more like Herschel Walker with each game) at quarterback. I’ve done my best to ignore the tiresome antics of King Douchebag. And maybe I’ll continue to do that (or resume doing it) next season. But right now, this minute, I’m done pretending Tom Coughlin is anything other than an overrated college coach who has no business running (or in this case failing to run) an NFL team. So I’m rooting for the Giants to lose their last two games in hopes a 7-9 finish will be enough to do Coughlin in and give the Giants a chance to turn things around next season. It should help that this week’s game pits New York against a New Orleans team that has them outclassed in ever conceivable aspect of the game. Saints by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Cleveland
Chances are one of these teams is gonna win this game. Merry Christmas, Cleveland. Browns by a point.

Tennessee (+4.5) at Buffalo
Both teams are looking to finish the season strong and build some momentum for 2007. One of them is at home. The other one allows more yards per game than any team in the league and more points per game than 26 others. So I’m taking the Bills to win it by a field goal. And if it turns out I’m wrong, I’ll neither be surprised nor terribly disappointed.

Washington (+2) at St. Louis
I guess when all is said and done I agree with the oddsmakers. St. Louis is about two points less bad than Washington. So there you go.

Arizona (+4) at San Francisco
The Niners are trying to play their way to a playoff berth, maybe even a NFC West championship (the latter’s unlikely given that Seattle has a two-game lead and closes at Tampa Bay, but possible just the same). Arizona is just counting down the days to the end of the Dennis Green era (the count should be no more than nine at the close of this game). 49ers by 10.

Cincinnati (+3) at Denver
Carson Palmer may or may not have a bum shoulder. Javon Walker definitely has a bum shoulder. And if Walker can’t catch balls, you probably can’t expect much out of young Mr. Cutler. And still, you have to feel like the Broncos can probably win this game, especially if Palmer’s hurt worse than the Bengals are letting on, based on the fact that Denver runs the ball better than Cincy (both teams stop the run rather well). On the other hand, since neither team defends the pass very well, maybe it’ll be the team that fares better in the air that’ll come out ahead. I didn’t know what to make of this game three days ago, and I still don’t know now. So I decided I’d pick the team with the better giveaway/takeaway ratio, which is Cincinnati (+7; while Denver is dead even). And that’ll probably sink me.

San Diego (-4) at Seattle
If you wanna pretend Seattle has a shot here, you go right ahead. Me, I live in the real world, the one where San Diego runs the ball down Seattle’s throat all afternoon and comes out ahead by 14 or more.

Philadelphia (+7) at Dallas
I know who I’ll be rooting for in this game. I’d love nothing more than to see the Jeff Garcia-led Eagles rip the division lead away from asshole Owens and the Cowboys. But it’s not gonna happen. Dallas by three.

NY Jets (+2) at Miami
You know how I know the Dolphins are gonna run away with this game? Because I keep hearing Jets fans talk about how winnable it is and how their team’s headed for the playoffs. Maybe next year, folks. Dolphins by a field goal.

Let’s see how many ways I can be wrong about football games this week. Fun, isn’t it?

San Francisco (+9.5) at Seattle
Man, I’d love to believe the 49ers had it in them to become the second straight NFC West opponent to catch the Seahawks napping and pull off an upset (completing a surprise season sweep in the process). But I don’t. To begin with, this round isn’t being played in San Francisco. And more important, the Seahawks are playing to clinch the division and to remain in contention for the NFC two seed (or at least the three). I will take the Niners to make it a bit of a game, however. I’m guessing they’re in it until just after halftime, and they ultimately lose by only a touchdown.

Dallas (-3) at Atlanta
In which Dallas, which matches up much better against Atlanta than it did against New Orleans, ensures that it will be able to hold on to its tenuous one-game lead in the NFC East for at least one more week (possibly longer depending on the outcome of Giants/Eagles on Sunday) and Atlanta, which matches up against Dallas rather less well than it did against Tampa Bay, reconvenes its slide to 8-8 or 7-9. I’m gonna go ahead and give the points.

Cleveland (+11) at Baltimore
The Ravens are gunning for the AFC two seed. The Browns are staring at the possibility of a top five pick on April 28. I don’t see any likelihood that this game throws either team off its current track. I’m not giving anything like 11 points, though. And I’m betting the under.

Detroit (+5) at Green Bay
I understand why there are once again questions about whether Brett Favre will be back in 2007 (he will). There simply always are. And I totally get why there are questions about whether Kevin Jones will be able to play next season (I bet he won’t; I’ve got an eight-year-old Lisfranc sprain that still hasn’t fully healed, and I don’t do anything one one-thousandth as punishing as playing running back in the NFL). What I can’t for the life of me understand is why there is any question about whether Matt Millen will still be running the Lions organization a month from now. How clear can it be that this guy is a bum? How stupid can the Ford family possibly be? “Indications are the Millen will be out”? Indications are? Why is he still in right now? The only thing sadder is the fact that the Lions are still better than the Oakland Raiders. (And only God can fire Al Davis.) Green Bay by a touchdown.

Houston (+11.5) at New England
What’s there really to say here? The Patriots had damned well better win this game, because the Jets still have a soft schedule and the Pats have to travel to Jacksonville and newly hot Tennessee in the final two weeks of the season, and chances are, the way they’ve been playing, they’re going to drop one of those games. Fortunately for New England, Houston is statistically even worse than Detroit. So that should make this one easy. (But I’m still taking the Texans to hold the margin to something more like 10.)

Jacksonville (-3.5) at Tennessee
Can hot-handed Uncle Rico lead the Titans to a fifth-straight win? Probably not, given that the Jags are playing to keep their wild card hopes alive and know they’ve got a tough finish ahead with a week 16 home game against the Patriots and a week 17 road trip to Arrowhead Stadium. That should prove motivation enough to boost Jacksonville over a Tennessee team that still has the league’s worst defense. The Jags hold off this week’s Titans comeback attempt and win it by a point.

Miami (+1) at Buffalo
If Ronnie Brown were healthy and playing, I wouldn’t hesitate for a second to take Miami here. But Brown isn’t healthy and he may not be playing. So I’m hesitating, for exactly two seconds — ready, one … two … — and now I’m taking Miami.

NY Jets (+3.5) at Minnesota
I’d love to believe that the Jets won’t find a way to win this game. I’d also love to believe that the Vikings won’t find a way to lose it. But, much as the statistics favor Minnesota, I just know that this one isn’t going the Vikings’ way. The Jets pull off the upset and keep their hopes of overtaking the Patriots with a late push alive for another week (though quite likely just that).

Pittsburgh (-3) at Carolina
I only know one thing about this game. It’s not who’s gonna start at quarterback for the Panthers. It’s not which Carolina team or which Pittsburgh team is gonna show up to play. It’s that whichever team I pick is gonna lose. So I’m picking the Steelers, because what’s having the god-like power to affect the outcome of football games worth if you don’t use it to screw a team like Pittsburgh?

Tampa Bay (+13.5) at Chicago
Three points: a win here assures the Bears of a week-one playoff bye (not that they aren’t getting it anyhow, with the Lions coming in next week) and puts them one win away (again, Detroit) from clinching the one seed and being able to rest starters (and maybe, you know, get a peak at how Brian Griese can perform under center) in week 17. The Bears score more than twice as many points, on average, as the Bucs. And the Buccaneers allow half again as many points as the Bears. So shit yeah, I’m giving the points.

Washington (+9.5) at New Orleans
No, Drew Brees isn’t gonna be breaking Dan Marino’s single-season passing record. Not unless he manages something on the order of 400 yards here. And that’s not gonna happen. Brees should still be able to light up the Redskins for something on the order of 300, though. And in the end, since the goal is to win games and make the playoffs, not to set individual records, I’m guessing that’ll be more than enough. I’m giving the points.

Denver (-2.5) at Arizona
Darrent Williams says some of his Broncos teammates have given up on the season. Should that really come as any kind of surprise, considering Mike Shanahan did exactly the same thing two weeks ago? Still, it’s kinda hard to lose to the Cards. And I don’t think anyone on Denver’s roster is quite that quit yet. Broncos by six.

Philadelphia (+5.5) at NY Giants
Maybe if Philly had any ability to stop the run they’d have a shot at this game. But they don’t. So they don’t. I expect to see a lot of scoring. And I expect to see the Giants come out ahead by about four.

St. Louis (+2.5) at Oakland
I don’t know. St. Louis’ defense doesn’t suck as much as Oakland’s offense. So I guess I’ll take the Rams. Who cares?

Kansas City (+8.5) at San Diego
If this game were being played at Arrowhead, I’d take the Chiefs to win won in honor of the great Mr. Hunt. But it’s in San Diego. Plus, the Chargers are better than the Chiefs on both sides of the ball. And Kansas City barely managed to hold on and win when they did have San Diego in their stadium. So I’m taking the Chargers straight up, though I like the Chiefs with the points.

Cincinnati (+3) at Indianapolis
The Bengals need a win to ensure they’ll stay out ahead of the Jets, Broncos and Chiefs in the wild card race (no, Cincy isn’t catching up with Baltimore in the AFC North chase). The Colts need a win both to stay alive for the one or two seed (and the attendant playoff bye) and to stop their two game skid (and keep from falling to 1-4 since their 9-0 start). Indy can’t stop the run. Cincy can’t stop the pass. Both teams can put up points like there’s no goddamned tomorrow. I’m taking the last team to hold the ball … coin’s up, it’s down, it’s Cincinnati, to win it by a field goal. But the only bet I’m placing is on the over. Way, way, way the hell over.

Well, this isn’t getting any easier, is it? I have a feeling I may reach new levels of wrongness this week. Isn’t that exciting?

Cleveland (+7.5) at Pittsburgh
You know, it’d be nice to see Cleveland pull off yet another upset here. Not because the Steelers need to lose any more games. They don’t. They’re done. It’s just kinda nice not to have to deal with Steelers fans constantly crowing, and the more Pittsburgh loses, the quieter it gets. And, you know, with two of Pittsburgh’s best players out of the game, you’d almost think the Browns had a chance. But they probably don’t. And you certainly can’t pick ’em. I’ll take Cleveland to cover, but I expect the Steelers to manage a win.

Atlanta (-3) at Tampa Bay
Sure, the Falcons appeared to get back on track last week vs. the Redskins. And, yeah, Tampa Bay actually does suck even more than Washington (the Bucs allow about the same number of points as the Skins, but they score only about two thirds as many). But it’s still hard to pick Atlanta to win a second consecutive road game given how inconsistent the Falcons have been this season. I mean, I have to take Atlanta. I just don’t feel confident (or happy) about it. And I’m not giving three, though neither am I taking three (it’s a push, baby).

Baltimore (+3) at Kansas City
Shit, yeah, I think the Ravens can win this game. The Chiefs can’t do shit when they can’t run the ball. And I don’t care who your running back is, you don’t run the ball successfully against the Baltimore Ravens. Kansas City’s defense isn’t exactly soft, mind you, so I’m not expecting a huge day out of anyone on the Ravens’ offense. But I do expect the Ravens D, as usual, to force some turnovers and give the offense the opportunity to take advantage of a short field just enough to come out ahead by a point or two. That’ll bring the Ravens a step closer to clinching their division and make the Chiefs’ road to the playoffs a bit harder to travel (with the Bengals and Jets looking likely to win this week and the Jets facing a fairly soft schedule for the remainder of the season).

Indianapolis (-1.5) at Jacksonville
So this one’s a goddamned bitch. I mean, you tell me: are Indy’s losses in two of its last three games (and the week 13 loss to Tennessee, in particular) a function of the law of averages catching up with a team that started 9-0 in a highly competitive league, the inevitable result of late-season letup by a team that knows it’s headed for the playoffs, or the unavoidable fate of a team that doesn’t run the ball very well and can’t stop the run at all? If it’s option C, the Colts are in serious trouble, not just this week, but going forward. If it’s A, there’s no telling what might happen here. And if it’s B, the Jags are probably gonna get their asses kicked, since there’s no longer room for letup by the Colts, who are now in dire jeopardy of losing home field through the playoffs to the increasingly hot San Diego Chargers. But I can’t begin to guess what the situation really is, so assessing the possibilities ultimately doesn’t help me much. I also have no way of guessing whether Dave Garrard will look like a guy who should be starting every week, or just another career backup. Garrard’s managed to look like both by turns since he stepped in for Byron Leftwich and I simply haven’t seen enough of him to feel like I know which is the real quarterback. The smart thing to do, probably, is to take the 10-2 squad that’s playing for something concrete over the 7-5 team trying to hold on to the hope of making the playoffs. But I’m not doing the smart thing. I’m taking the Jags to pull off the minor upset. And I’m expecting to be disappointed.

Minnesota (+2.5) at Detroit
You know, I could try to find some intelligent way to break down this game, but I’m not going to. Because in the end, I still wouldn’t feel remotely good about picking either of these awful teams. So I’m just gonna pick the team I want to win. Or rather I’m gonna pick against the team I want to lose. That’s the one that needs to wise up and fire its CEO before things get even worse. Vikes by two.

New England (-3.5) at Miami
This game could have come at a better time for the Patriots. And for me. Because if the squad that played Detroit last weekend shows up in Miami, it’s gonna be a long, ugly afternoon. But if New England has somehow figured out that, more than simply needing to win in order to edge closer to clinching the AFC East and a home playoff game, it needs to continue to battle for the hope of bye week in January (not to mention just getting itself straightened out as the playoffs approach) then it should roll over a Miami team that’s increasingly banged up. Problem is, no one will know what’s up with the Patriots until this game is over. Me, I guess I’ll take my chances with New England straight up until I have a reason to do otherwise. I do like Miami to keep it to less than three, however.

NY Giants (+3) at Carolina
One of these teams keeps its playoff hopes alive for another week. The other gets to start planning for 2007. Now, you tell me which team is which, because I have no freaking idea. In fact, I can’t even tell you which of these teams is likely to show up to play. Maybe neither. Guess I’ll take the home team, for whatever little that’s worth, to win it by a field goal.

Oakland (+11) at Cincinnati
If there’s one hard and fast rule of picking NFL games in 2006, it’s don’t take the Raiders. So I’m not. And that’s the only bit of thinking I’m doing about this game. Cincy wins this one by 20.

Philadelphia (-1.5) at Washington
Good old Jeff Garcia. You know, I’ve always liked the guy and I didn’t think he could get it done under center in Philly. Glad I was wrong (not so much for the Eagles, who I don’t care about one way or the other, but for Jeff). And I’ve gotta figure that if Jeff can figure out a way to get things done against Carolina, he can figure out a way to get things done against Washington, a team that’s given up 25 more passing yards a game and six more passing touchdowns than the Panthers (and that apparently is back to having an offense that can move the ball, but can’t score). Philly by six.

Tennessee (+1.5) at Houston
It’s kinda starting to look like maybe Vince Young was the best quarterback taken in the 2006 draft, isn’t it? Titans by a touchdown.

Buffalo (+3.5) at NY Jets
I’m not at all sure this game is the gimme for the Jets that it’s being made out to be by the “experts.” Excitement about their playoff run aside, New York continues to have some fairly significant defensive issues (in essence, they don’t stop anything well or consistently). And I have a feeling those issues may allow Buffalo to stay competitive into the fourth quarter of this game. I do expect the Jets to manage a win here, and probably even to beat the spread, but I don’t think it’ll be over before the last offensive possession.

Denver (+7.5) at San Diego
This much became clear on Sunday night: the decision to start Jay Cutler under center isn’t about giving the Broncos their best chance to win this season. The team’s offensive line issues are clearly too great for them to have any real chance of advancing far into January this season no matter who their quarterback is. The Broncos may not be saying so, but they’re getting Cutler, and the team, ready for 2007. This game is already a Chargers win. By 10.

Green Bay (+4.5) at San Francisco
I don’t care about this game. And chances are neither do you. Niners by a touchdown.

Seattle (-3.5) at Arizona
Yet another opportunity for the Seahawks to play poorly and come away with a win. What fun. Seattle by four.

New Orleans (+6.5) at Dallas
Man, like I know Tony Romo is, like, god and everything, but are the Cowboys really so good with him at quarterback that they should be giving most of a touchdown to a Saints team that’s 8-4 and features a damned talented quarterback of its own? I don’t think so. I mean, I think Dallas wins, but not by six and a half.

Chicago (-6.5) at St. Louis
Just so you know, Lovie’s sticking with Rex at quarterback. And I’m sticking with the Bears — to win this week, to clinch home field through the playoffs, and to lose their first game after the January bye. But that’s more than a month from now. Right now, Chicago crushes the Rams, by two touchdowns or more.

Here we go. Three teams can come out of this weekend having clinched their divisions. Two of them almost certainly will, and the third’s got as good a chance of wrapping up the AFC North tonight as they do of having to wait until next week. Even with this lingering cold I’ve got, I smell playoffs. It’s getting exciting. And there’s still a month of great regular season action for me to be wrong about. Here’s how things probably won’t happen this week.

Baltimore (+3) at Cincinnati
There are, to my mind, exactly three factors that make this game even remotely difficult to call. The first is that it’s being played on a Thursday night. This is a new situation for the league and for the teams and it’s hard to know how the players and coaches will respond. I’ve heard both Brian Billick and Marvin Lewis on Sirius NFL Radio this week discussing the difficulties of preparing for an important divisional game in what ultimately measures out to a three-day week. Neither coach is happy about it. And neither seems to have any real idea how it’s going to affect his team. My guess is that the situation favors the more seasoned and more disciplined squad (which is to say the Ravens), but who the hell knows? Second is the location of the game. In a divisional game, unless it’s a complete mismatch, home field can mean a ton. And third is the fact that the Bengals have their backs up against the wall. A Cincinnati loss here not only would end the division race in Baltimore’s favor (the Ravens would have a four-game lead with only four games to play and would own the tie breaker), but would leave the Bengals needing to win out in order to secure a wildcard spot (no one with fewer than 10 wins is gonna make the playoffs in the AFC). That’s not a situation you want to be in when you’ve got back-to-back trips to Indianapolis and Denver ahead of you. So you can rest assured Cincy’s gonna be playing with everything its got. Question is, will that be enough. My gut says, no. To begin with, claims to the contrary notwithstanding (you know you’re gonna have to back that shit up now, right T.J.?), the Ravens are simply the better team in this tilt. Cincinnati has been more effective on offense, yes, but only to the tune of 44 yards and two and a half points per game. On the other side of the ball, however, you’ve got a Baltimore D that ranks second best in the league, allowing just 265 yards and 13.4 points per game, and a Cincinnati D that ranks second worst in the league, allowing 362 yards and 21.2 points per game. That’s an enormous difference. And it’s hard to imagine Cincinnati’s D getting better in a game when the unit is likely to spend a significant amount of time on the field. I’m guessing the newly resurgent Jamal Lewis is gonna run wild in the second half. Then factor in the issue of giveaway/takeaway ratio. Cincinnati is an impressive +8 in that area, but Baltimore leads the league with a +15. And it starts to look like the Bengals can’t possibly keep up. But the thing is, maybe they can. Maybe playing at home on a short week in a game they absolutely, without question, must win will be enough to lift the Bengals over the Ravens and keep their season alive for another couple of weeks. I don’t see it. I see a Ravens win. But I won’t be surprised if I’m wrong.

Arizona (+6.5) at St. Louis
As the game clock ticks down to :00 and the Dennis Green employment clock ticks down to four weeks, the Joe Thomas “Oh, shit clock will tick down to five months. St. Louis by a field goal.

Atlanta (+1.5) at Washington
You know, I’m not gonna argue that Michael Vick isn’t part of the problem, but maybe if one of those Atlanta wideouts occasionally, you know, caught a fucking pass, there wouldn’t be as much of a problem to assess. I could try to break this game down, but I’ve got better things to do with my time than figure out which of these teams sucks less. I’m gonna guess that since Atlanta’s gotta get off the schneid sometime and since it’s now possible to break down tape on Jason Campbell, the Falcons are gonna find a way to win here. But I’m almost certainly wrong about that.

Detroit (+13.5) at New England
To paraphrase Darryl Rogers, what does a CEO/GM have to do to get fired around here? Apparently, whatever it is, we’ve yet to see it. I find that kinda shocking, you know? Because Rogers did get fired. Midway through his fourth season, when the team was 18-40 (.310) under him. Likewise, the team dumped Steve Mariucci 11 games into last season, his third as head coach. The Lions were 15-28 (.348) under Mariucci. But as this season wears on, and the Lions continue to lose week in and week out, you’d think it might start to dawn on the Ford family that the team is 23-68 (.253) since Matt Millen came in to run the front office in 2001. Add to that the fact that last week a team led by a guy who couldn’t win to save his life when he was with Detroit came in and embarrassed the Lions in front of a national audience and it should be impossible for the Fords to miss that Millen is their biggest blunder since the Edsel (and if they don’t take care of the problem soon, the situation’s gonna blow up like a Pinto). Chances are, an ass-kicking in Foxborough won’t be the straw that breaks this insane camel’s back, which is to say that if Millen survives until Sunday, he’s probably got another week in him. Patriots by 17.

Indianapolis (-7.5) at Tennessee
What happens here. Duhhh, I don’t know Tennessee. You know, I could see the Titan falling behind by 21 early again this week. And I could see one of these teams putting up 24 points in the last 10 minutes. What I can’t see is that team being the Titans again. I’d take Indy if I had to give twice the points.

Kansas City (-5) at Cleveland
Larry Johnson is good for a little more than 140 all-purpose yards a game. He averages 4.3 yards per carry on the ground. And he’s been in the end zone 15 times this season, 13 of them rushing. The Cleveland Browns run defense ranks 25th in the league. It gives up nearly 134 yards a game and 4.5 per carry. (Which, as I’ve pointed out before, is one of the things that can tend to happen when you insist on running a 3-4 defense with 4-3 personnel.) The Browns have only given up nine rushing touchdowns this season, which isn’t good, but isn’t terrible, so they’ve got that going for them, which … well, it really isn’t all that nice, because they’ve allowed 13 passing scores. So, you know, maybe Larry racks up a ton of yards but doesn’t score. Or maybe he catches a touchdown. Or maybe Larry just gets the Chiefs close to the goal line and someone like Tony Gonzalez does the bulk of the scoring. One way or another, things don’t look at all promising for Cleveland (or for Romeo Crennel’s job security). So, yeah, I’ll give the five points.

Minnesota (+9) at Chicago
Jeez, remember when the Vikings were 4-2, playing well and looking like they might sneak into the playoffs? They sure went tits up in a giant hurry, didn’t they? Bears win by 14 and cement the division title.

NY Jets (-1.5) at Green Bay
You know, for a while there on Monday night I really thought Green Bay had that game won And, hell, maybe if it hadn’t been for that absurd roughing the passer call, the Pack would have pulled out the win after all. If they’d won in Seattle, I’m sure I’d be picking them here. But they didn’t. So I’m not. I think the Jets come out on top by three or four in a high-scoring game. Sure do hope I’m wrong, though (about the Jets winning, that is).

San Diego (-6) at Buffalo
The Chargers are probably the best team in the league right now, but they’re not perfect. They have some issues in their secondary and I have this sense that J.P. Losman is gonna be able to exploit those issues and limit the amount of time Buffalo’s shaky defense has to spend contending with San Diego’s dangerous offense. It won’t be enough, of course. In the end, the Chargers still have the best player in the league on their side, and that should be more than enough to let them get the job done. Still, I’m gonna stop short of giving the six points. The Chargers might cover, but they might not and I think there’s a strong enough argument for not that I’m only expecting San Diego to win by four or five.

San Francisco (+7) at New Orleans
The Niners are suddenly playing some pretty decent football. Not good enough to hang with the Saints in New Orleans or anything, but good enough for San Francisco fans to feel hopeful about the future. And when was the last time you could say that? Saints by 10.

Dallas (-3.5) at NY Giants
God help Tony Romo if Mathias Kiwanuka draws a bead on him at any point during this game, because there are some mistakes you don’t take even the slightest chance of repeating. That, unfortunately, may be the only thing the Giants have going for them heading into this game, because contrary to King Douchebag’s declaration a couple weeks back, the Cowboys are clearly headed in exactly the right direction while the Giants are falling apart more and more by the minute. (This week’s blowup features Michael Strahan and Plaxico Burress, though apparently no one’s supposed to ask or comment about it.. Here’s the deal: New York has to win this game — has to, pure and simple — if it’s gonna have any hope of salvaging its season. But my guess is that Dallas, which comes in on 10 days rest, is gonna tough it out and end both the Giants’ 2006 run, but Tom Coughlin’s tenure as New York’s head coach. Dallas by four.

Houston (+3) at Oakland
Hey, guess what. “Coach” Shell finally figured out that his old pal Tommy Flapjacks is no longer qualified to run an NFL offense. Congratulations, Art. You now officially know as much about Walsh and your team as every football fan in America did 11 games ago. You know what else? Though I agree that it was time (well past time, frankly) to make a change, I’m not entirely sure the new guy is the answer to the Raiders’ offensive woes. To begin with, Shoop was 24-24 as OC of the Chicago Bears under Dick Jauron. That’s not exactly lighting it up. And there’s a reason Shoop’s been working as an assistant and not as a coordinator over the past two seasons. (You’ll also notice he apparently wasn’t one of the guys Jauron called when he landed the head coaching gig in Buffalo). Still, anything’s gotta be an improvement over the French toast offense (that’s the one where your quarterback drops seven steps, feels the heat and tosses the ball to a butterfingered receiver — and everyone ends up with egg on his face). So let’s see where it leads. This is probably as good a weekend as the Raiders will get to try out some new offensive tactics. Houston’s defense hasn’t been stopping much of anything, so unless the Raiders remain as effective at stopping themselves under Shoop as they did under Walsh, they’ll probably have at least moderate success moving the ball. More important, Houston’s offense, which has hardly been tearing up the league will face an Oakland D that overall isn’t as good as its reputation (it looks terrific in comparison to the Raiders offense, but it’s really just on the plus side of average), but it quite good at stopping the pass, which is the better part of the Texans O. It’s conceivable that the Raiders could win this game on D. And that’s just what I expect them to do, though certainly not by much. I think this one’s a push with the points.

Jacksonville (+1.5) at Miami
So you know that rule of thumb whereby in an evenly matched game you take the team that need to win more? How do you put that to work here? I mean, sure, Jacksonville, at 6-5, is fighting for its life, trying to hold onto its chances of making the playoffs in a crowded middle of the AFC pack. It has to win this game to keep up with Cincinnati and the Jets, not to mention to hold out hope of catching one of those strong 7-4 squads from the AFC West. But I think the Dolphins, winners of four straight, truly believe they have a chance of sneaking into the tournament. And at 5-6, they have to know that whatever chance that is disappears the moment they drop one more game. So you tell me who needs this game most. Exactly. OK, then, so you go with the hot team, right? The home team? Yeah, you do. Except it just doesn’t sit right with me. Jacksonville may have fallen apart at Buffalo last week, and Miami is coming in with 10 days rest, but, me, I can’t get past the fact that the Jags are simply a better team than the Fins in every aspect of the game. Plus, Miami’s gonna have to go without Ronnie Brown. So I’m going with Jacksonville (perhaps just this one last time). And I’ll probably be wrong, but so it goes.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Pittsburgh
Here’s what galls me about this game: There’s simply no way in hell the Pittsburgh Steelers should be giving more than a touchdown to anyone in any stadium. They’re a 4-7 team, for fuck’s sake. They turn the ball over more often than any team in the league. Yet, somehow, maybe it’s because they’re the defending champs (for whatever little that’s worth at this stage in the season) or maybe (as I suspect) it’s just because they’re the Steelers, everyone continues to believe they’re “better than their record.” Nonsense. And, hey, look, I’m not here to be a Buccaneers booster. Not by any stretch. The Bucs are a lousy team, and unquestionably as bad as their 3-8 record. Their offense can’t score worth a damn. And they turn the ball over way too much. But the Tampa offense may not need to score to keep the Bucs in this game. Ronde Barber may be able to take care of that. I still don’t see Tampa Bay pulling off an upset here, mind you. I just see it the game being a lot closer than the spread. But I’ll certainly be rooting for an upset, because maybe then everyone would stop believing the Steelers are better than they really are.

Seattle (+3) at Denver
So, listen, if you’ve got some way of figuring this game out, do me a favor and let me know what the hell it is. Because I haven’t a clue. I mean, OK, it’s in Denver, so common sense says you pick the Broncos. And the Seahawks found it difficult to stop the Packers Monday night, and the Broncos are better than the Packers, so common sense says you take the Broncos. Trouble is, I don’t know what the hell the Broncos are gonna look like with Jay Cutler under center . I mean, obviously, Mike Shanahan, one of the best coaches in the league, knows what he’s doing. He knows his team is in a playoff race. And if he’s making this change, he has to believe the rookie can get the job done. That’s all well and good. But Cutler’s still a rookie and he’s still likely to make some rookie mistakes along the way. And that’s likely to bite the Broncos in the ass in a game against a Seattle team that’s newly healthy and playing to earn a bye week in the playoffs. So you go ahead and tell me what the hell I’m supposed to make of this game. You can’t, right? Perfect. I’m right back where I started: on my own and totally clueless. So what can I do? I’m gonna trust Mike Shanahan to know his quarterback. I’m gonna trust the Denver defense to force Seattle to make some mistakes. I’m gonna hope like hell Shaun Alexander doesn’t manage another 200-yard effort. And I’m gonna hedge my bets by taking Denver to win, but Seattle to cover. How about that?

Carolina (-3) at Philadelphia
Like every week this season, you’ve got to try to figure out whether the good Panthers or the awful Panthers are gonna show up for this game. Only this week, it’s just a matter of knowing whether you give the three points and feel great about it or give the three and bit your nails over it. I’m gonna choose to believe the thing that keeps me from losing sleep. Because, really, what’s the difference?