This Football Blog

San Francisco (-4) vs. Baltimore
Officially, I have no rooting interest in this game. And, in reality, my evening is going to turn out just the same no matter how it goes. Give me a close, hard-fought game with some spectacular moments on both sides of the ball and both sides of the field and I’ll be just as happy no matter which team ends up hoisting the Lombardi.

That’s freeing in a way. It’s also at least partially BS. Because when it comes right down to it, I really don’t want to see Ray Lewis get another ring. (Honestly, what I’d like to see Lewis get is an extended prison sentence, but that’s not gonna happen.) Before he cheated his way back onto the field, it was impossible not to respect Lewis as an athlete. That’s fine, I suppose (or maybe it isn’t; we’ll see where things go). But there’s also the fact that Lewis is and has been a duplicitous, self-aggrandizing douchebag of the highest order. He’s the kind of guy you want to see fail, and fail spectacularly. If I could write a script for this game, it would end with Frank Gore running directly over Lewis into the end zone to put the winning points on the board for San Francisco on the final play of the game (let’s say fourth and goal from the three or something like that). And, yeah, I get that the 49ers aren’t exactly asshole-free, but the thing is, if the Niners win, no one (no one) is going to pretend that Chris Culliver is the reason for the win. So … you see what I’m saying?

Anyway, I suppose that’s all neither here nor there, except to say that I’ve probably been looking for reasons to believe San Francisco will come out on top.

Here’s what I see: I don’t think either team has an advantage in the trenches. I’m certain that neither has a real advantage in the running game. Baltimore certainly has an edge in special teams, but unless this comes down to a field goal attempt (it could), I’m not sure that’s likely to be the deciding factor.

I think it comes down to the passing game. And there I think the Niners have a decided edge. Not because I have great faith in Colin Kaepernick, who has been great, but who is starting just his tenth NFL game on a very big stage. And not because I lack faith in Joe Flacco (though I’ll believe he’s capable of turning in an exceptional effort for the fourth straight game for the first time in his career when I see it). It’s simply because I think the Niners have a better chance of shutting down the Ravens deep-ball oriented passing game than the Ravens have of taking away the 49ers ability to chew up the middle of the field. The Ravens have struggled to stop tight ends. (I suspect that if Rob Gronkowski had been on the field for the AFC Championship, we’d be preparing for a different Super Bowl.) And I’m not sure Baltimore can take steps to limit the damage San Francisco can do in their two tight end sets without opening themselves up to get killed by Kaepernick, Gore and Michael Crabtree (not to mention, you know, Randy Moss, who isn’t the greatest wide receiver ever, but is probably the most gifted, and who can still punish you if you give him a tenth of a chance).

In the end, I just think the Niners have more options on offense than the Ravens, which means the Ravens’ tough defense has a more difficult task than the 49ers’ tough defense. I suspect the game will be close at least through most of the third quarter, but when the confetti comes down, I think it will be falling on a bunch of happy 49ers. And I think the scoreboard will read something along the lines of San Francisco 27, Baltimore 17.

Here we go. Second to last time until next September (that, I can assure you, is an accurate prediction). What not to expect.

San Francisco (-4) at Atlanta
Here’s how I started out thinking about this game: I keep not believing in Atlanta and they keep proving me wrong. So I should pick the Falcons. Only, I also keep not believing in Colin Kaepernick and he keeps proving me wrong. So I should pick the Niners. You see where that got me? Nowhere. So you know what? I’ve decided I believe in both the Falcons and the kid. And that also gets me nowhere. I also believe in takeaway/giveaway differential. That get’s me most of nowhere (Falcons, +13; 49ers, +10). I believe the Falcons have a slightly more productive offense and the 49ers have a slightly stingier defense. Nowhere. I believe in home field advantage. That’s something, I suppose. But I also believe that the Falcons came within inches of choking away a 20-point fourth quarter lead at home last week against a team that was playing its second straight cross-continental road game and that isn’t nearly as good or as well coached as San Francisco. So there goes that. And now I’m back to nowhere (and starting to feel entirely too damned comfortable here). Seems to me that I’m destined to be wrong no matter how I pick this thing. So, to hell with it; I’ll go with the favorite. That way, at least I won’t feel like I’m all alone when it goes the other way. San Francisco by six.

Baltimore (+9) at New England
Let’s start with two completely meaningless statistics (because I did the research so I’m damned well gonna do something with it). First one: Teams playing in a conference championship (I’m lumping pre-merger league championships into this group) the year after losing the Super Bowl are 7-2 (.778) all time. So there’s that. Next: Super Bowl era teams returning to the semifinals a year after losing a conference championship (league championship, pre-merger) are 12-19 (.387). None of that applies to this game in any real way, but you can maybe throw those numbers out at a bar or something and make people think you’re as crazy as I am. How about one that maybe does matter a little: Joe Flacco has never, in his entire career, played outstanding football for three consecutive weeks. Flacco once, in 2010, had three straight standout games, but there was a bye in between the second and third. More to the point, Flacco’s only two consecutive great games in the current season came in the wild card round and the divisional round of the playoffs. That is, prior to the last two weeks, the consistently inconsistent Flacco had been, consistently, up and down all season. Given that, do you think Flacco’s got a third straight great game in him? It could happen, I suppose, but I don’t see any reason you’d want to put money on it. Certainly, you won’t find that reason in the Patriots defense. Because the defense Flacco will face on Sunday isn’t even remotely like the D he faced back in week three when he rallied his team from a nine-point fourth quarter deficit to a one-point victory on the strength of deep passes and an absurd string of defensive penalties (which isn’t to say that the replacement officials made bad calls — some would argue they did; I don’t care — but that the New England D couldn’t get out of its own damned way in the final period). It’s also a defense that’s considerably tougher than the one the Patriots offense will face. The Ravens this season have been OK against the pass, but considerably less than OK against the run. And one can talk about how Baltimore’s D has been getting healthier, and how they finished the regular season with a couple of strong performances on the ground. But in the postseason Baltimore has given up 152 rushing yards to Indianapolis and 125 to Denver (precisely 25 of which came in overtime — so call it 100 if you want). And neither the Colts nor the Broncos achieved run production in the regular season that was even close to the seventh-ranked Patriots run offense. That appears to present a challenge for Baltimore. And what do you do if you’re the Ravens? Do you bring extra bodies to the line to try to slow down the run? Because if you do that, Tom Brady is going to eat you alive in the secondary. I’m also not convinced that the Ravens can get to the quarterback consistently enough to take the Brady out of his game. And if you can’t stop the run and you can’t stop the pass — and your defense, which isn’t young and which has played an awful lot of football over the last two weeks, has to face the fastest-moving, highest-scoring offense in the league — you end up in a situation in which you have to match the Patriots point for point. Ray Rice can’t do that on his own. Can Flacco do enough to make up the difference? On his best day, sure. But Flacco’s already had his best day. Twice. In a row. I think he needs to have as good a day here as he did back in week three, and I just don’t see that happening against the Patriots defense as currently configured. The Ravens and the Patriots virtually always play each other tough. And initially, I thought this game would turn on three points, max. But the more I look at it, the more I wonder if it isn’t time for one of those anomalous games in which one of these teams blows the other out. Last time around (back in 2009) that honor went to the Ravens. This time, it goes to the Patriots. New England, 33-14.

Here’s how it breaks down: I’m taking the road teams in the NFC and the home teams in the AFC. There’s no formula at work there. It’s just how it worked out. So what that means, on the whole, is that the road teams will prevail in the AFC and the home teams will advance in the NFC. Which is really just another way of saying here’s what not to expect.

Baltimore (+9.5) at Denver
This is why I don’t actually put any money on football games. The big spreads in both of the AFC matchups this weekend make me nervous. Sure, the Broncos and Patriots are the conference one and two seeds for a reason. And both the Ravens and the Texans appeared to be fading pretty steadily down the stretch (the Ravens lost four of their final five regular season games — making them 2-4 in their last six games when you add in their wild card round victory over the phony baloney Indianapolis Colts — while the Texans dropped their of their last four, which makes them 2-3 over their last five games when you factor in their wild card round victory over the inept Cincinnati Bengals). There aren’t a lot of reasons to anticipate straight-up upsets in either of the AFC games. But straight up is a different matter than against the spread. And two scores is just a lot to give in the divisional round. Then again, go ahead and tell me how the Ravens are going to compete with the Broncos in Denver. The Ravens that the Broncos hammered the Ravens in Baltimore a mere four weeks ago. The Ravens that are counting on an injured, 37-year-old linebacker to lead the way as they try to slow down the high-scoring, fast-moving Denver offense (because Lewis is a “great leader,” which is nice, I suppose, but hardly the same as being a great player, something he wasn’t this season even before he tore his triceps). The Ravens that simply don’t have a balanced enough offense to keep up with the Broncos. I see one chance for the Ravens to keep this game close: takeaways. If Baltimore can come out on top in the takeaway battle (something they definitely have the ability to do), they can keep the difference to a touchdown or so. If they can come out with a takeaway/giveaway differential of +2, they might be able to win it outright. But I don’t see that happening. And while I think they might stay with the Broncos until late in the second half, I think they ultimately fall by just a hair more than the spread. Denver by 10.

Green Bay (+3) at San Francisco
This one’s being pegged as a tough game to pick, but I’m not sure I buy it. Like the two AFC games, I think this features a team that improved over the course of the season playing a team that started hot, then appeared to stumble some down the stretch (though not nearly so pronouncedly as with the AFC squads). The only real difference is that in this one the hot team is on the road. I just don’t think the San Francisco defense is healthy enough to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense — you have to sack Rodgers at least five times get him off his game, something I’m not sure the Niners could do even if they were at full strength — whereas I’m fairly confident that the underrated Green Bay D has it in them to take at least something off of young Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers O. I’m looking for something close to a reversal of the result from these teams’ week one meeting, with the Packers coming out on top this time. But let’s say the difference will be seven rather than eight.

Seattle (+2.5) at Atlanta
Just like everybody else, I’m fairly certain that losing Chris Clemons is going to present a serious problem for the Seahawks defense. And I’m pretty sure you’ll see it play out in this game. Less pressure on Matt Ryan means more time for Julio Jones and Roddy White to get open. That’s going to put pressure on a Seattle D that was already going to have it’s hands full trying to slow down Jones, White and Tony Gonzalez. But it’s not like Seattle’s defense has been built on getting to the quarterback. It’s built to make the pass less and less effective over the course of a game by beating the tar out of the guys who catch the ball. Seattle still has the guys to do that. And as long as the Seahawks offense can keep them in the game long enough for toughness to become the deciding factor — which they should be able to do, as long as Marshawn Lynch is at least mostly healthy — I think they’ll manage to come out on top (only to lose next weekend in Green Bay). Seattle by a field goal.

Houston (+9.5) at New England
Here again, nine and a half seems like an awful lot to give in a divisional playoff game. It’s considerably less, of course, than the Patriots’ 28-point margin of victory in their week fourteen blowout of the Texans. But keep in mind that the ball bounced New England’s way all night long in that game. Luck may be, in Branch Rickey’s words, “the residue of design” (which is what Patriots situation football is all about), but no amount of design and no amount of preparation is going to guarantee that a goal line fumble by your running back is going to bounce into the hands of one of your receivers in the end zone. That kind of luck goes as easily as it comes. Still it’s not like everything went New England’s way and the Pats came out ahead by a field goal. The luck part of that game might have been the difference between a convincing 14-point game and a four-touchdown walloping, but that’s hardly the same as luck proving the factor that decides a win. The Patriots were the better team then, and they’re even more clearly the better team now. The New England offense is the highest scoring, fastest moving unit in football. The New England defense is much better than fans (and experts) realize (take a look at this graphic, which illustrates just how much better the Patriots pass D is now than it was 10 weeks ago — it’s not by just a little bit). And while I’m still not sure the Patriots league-best takeaway/giveaway differential (+25) means all that much against a team that takes as good care of the ball as Houston does, I simply find it hard to believe that the Texans secondary can prevail against the Patriots hurry-up passing attack, or that Houston’s vanilla offense can succeed against New England’s complex defense. So, yeah, I’m going to give the nine and a half here, too. In fact, I’d go as high as 14.

Cincinnati (+4.5) at Houston
I keep hearing/reading about how well the Bengals defense has been playing (and it has) and about how lost the Texans have looked over the final weeks of the season (and they have), and it kind of makes me want to join the crowd picking Cincinnati to pull off an  upset here. But I can’t. That’s not because I believe in the Texans (since I don’t) or because I don’t believe in the Bengals (though I don’t). Neither is it because I believe in Matt Schaub (I assure you that I don’t). It’s that I believe Andy Dalton and the Bengals offensive line are a difficult combination when you’re trying to win a playoff game on the road. Dalton has thrown too many picks, taken too many sacks and lost too many fumbles this season not to be a danger to his own team in a big game like this. The Texans defense does a pretty good job of getting to the quarterback, even in games when the opposing O line isn’t shaky (with one notable recent exception, of course). And the Texans offense does a good job of holding on to the ball, which means that a turnover or two by the Bengals — and those giveaways strike me as virtually inevitable — almost ensures that Cincinnati loses the turnover battle. And when you lose the turnover battle, you usually lose the game. I still don’t believe in the Texans, however, so I’m not giving any four and a half points. But I do like Houston to come out on top by a field goal.

Minnesota (+7.5) at Green Bay
I’ll start out by noting that I didn’t think the Vikings had it in them to win one game in a row over the Packers, so I sure as hell don’t think two straight is even a remote possibility. I’m thinking that at this point the Packers are pretty well aware that they’re not going to neutralize Adrian Peterson and force Christian Ponder to beat them with a defensive effort. The Packers weren’t able to slow Peterson down in either regular season meeting with the Vikings and they’re not likely to do it here. Neither can they count on Ponder to offer up a pair of costly turnovers as he did back in week thirteen. The best way to make Peterson a non-factor (and to put Ponder in a position to make crucial mistakes) is for the Green Bay offense to pour it on. And that’s what I expect to see them do. Minnesota’s defense is purely average. And it was pretty clear in the second half last weekend that the Packers had figured out how to score on the Vikings. I expect to see Green Bay pick up where they left off and put Minnesota in a deep enough hole that they can overcome Peterson’s production. Seven and a half is steep in a playoff game, particularly among division rivals, but I think Green Bay is up to the task. Packers by 10.

Indianapolis (+7) at Baltimore
Every season, there’s a team that makes the playoffs despite that it clearly has no business there. This season, that team is the Colts. Indianapolis comes into this game with a one-dimensional offense led by a rookie quarterback who very well might turn out to be great someday, but who is no better than average right now (no matter what you might have heard); a defense capable of stopping nothing; and a giveaway-takeaway differential of -12. The Ravens may be fading (they’re probably fading), but they’re not fading that fast. The Ravens take good care of the ball, they do a good job of taking advantage of the opportunities opponents present, and they have an offense that’s plenty good enough to put up 28 or better on the Colts. That will get the job done. Straight up, anyhow. It’s a push with the points.

Seattle (-3) at Washington
The only thing I know about this game is that it ought to be exciting to watch. I’m not sure I’d feel that way if Robert Griffin III were healthy. I think Griffin’s good enough to give even Seattle’s outstanding defense a tough time. Neither am I sure I’d feel that way if the Native Americans’ defense were healthy. I’ve been impressed with Russell Wilson, no question about that. He’s a kid with a great football head on his shoulders. But I continue to wonder if that head (and those shoulders) aren’t ultimately just a few inches too close to the ground for Wilson to succeed over the long term or in the big spot. But Griffin isn’t 100 percent. And the Washington defense hasn’t been 100 percent all season. And because of that, I have to believe Seattle has a shot. In fact, if the game were in Seattle, I’m pretty sure I’d take the Seahawks. Of course, one of the reasons the game is in Maryland is that the Seahawks don’t travel well. Seattle is a 3-5 road team, and only one of their three road wins came over a team that finished the season with a winning record (the Bears, who, you know, aren’t in the playoffs). That gets us right back to where we started: good game featuring a home team that should be the better squad and a road team that probably actually is the better squad, but that hasn’t shown any real ability to play up to its potential away from its own building. I think RG3 does just enough to eke out a win. Barely. Maybe right at the end of regulation. Native Americans, 23-21.

So this is it for the regular season. Which seems crazy to me, because I’m pretty sure the damned thing just started yesterday afternoon. I suppose the good news is that there will only be four games for me to predict poorly a week from now. So that should save all of us a good bit of time. Meanwhile, here’s what not to expect in week seventeen.

NY Jets (+3.5) at Buffalo
And now comes Mark Sanchez once again to not finish what he didn’t really ever start. Looking good, Jets. Looking real good. Buffalo by 10.

Baltimore (+2.5) at Cincinnati
The Ravens at least have the hope of snagging the three seed to play for. The Bengals’ only reason to try would be to prevent the Ravens from getting the three seed so they don’t have to face their division rivals again next week in Baltimore. I’m not sure that’s enough. Better to stay healthy, start thinking about a trip to New England (or maybe, but probably not, Houston; or maybe, but almost certainly not, Denver), and refuse to show Baltimore anything beyond your most basic looks on both sides of the ball on the off chance you do end up having to play the Ravens again in a week’s time. All told, I’ll take Baltimore to win it by a field goal.

Cleveland (off) at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh by an impressive wedge shot to birdie the 12th.

Houston (-6.5) at Indianapolis
I’ll start by saying that I’m always suspicious of the notion that emotion is going to carry a team to victory. Yes, I think it’s in incredible story that Chuck Pagano is returning to the Colts sideline. I know the players must be thrilled for their coach and excited to have him back with the team. I’m sure they’ll play their hearts out for him. I’m just not sure it matters. If Indy wins this game, they’ll win it because it’s hard to sweep a division opponent and really hard to beat a strong division foe on their field. They’ll win it because Houston has stumbled a bit of late and is looking vulnerable. Maybe they’ll win it because Houston has appeared to lack focus in the latter part of the season. All of those things are possible. But I don’t think any of those scenarios will play out. Because the Texans are playing to secure home field advantage through the playoffs, and they’re doing that because they’ve been one of the best teams in the league all season long. The Texans are clearly the better team in this game, and I simply can’t see them failing to seize the opportunity before them. Texans by a touchdown.

Jacksonville (+4) at Tennessee
If you think the Jaguars are bad now, wait to you see them next season with Tim Tebow, the fakest quarterback in the history of fake quarterbacks, taking snaps. Tennessee by six.

Philadelphia (+7.5) at NY Giants
I think there’s a decent chance the luckiest team in football actually falls ass-backward into the NFC six seed. At the very least, the Giants will take out the frustrations of a disappointing title defense on the lifeless, purposeless Eagles. New Jersey by 10.

Chicago (-3) at Detroit
Given the likelihood that the Packers will knock off the Vikings later in the day, a win here would put the Bears in the playoffs as the NFC six seed. And it’s for that reason that I expect the Lions to pull off the upset. Seriously. The Bears are slightly better than the Lions on offense and much better than the Lions on defense. Chicago has a +16 takeaway/giveaway differential, the second best in the league; Detroit’s -12 is the seventh worst. Moreover, the Lions are as adept at finding ways to lose football games as any team I’ve ever seen. This ought to be easy for the Bears. But it won’t be, because the Bears are a team that’s absolutely destined to choke their way out of the postseason. You can feel it. Detroit wins it by a point on the last play of the game.

Tampa Bay (off) at Atlanta
The Falcons, having secured home field throughout the NFC playoffs, have absolutely nothing to play for this weekend. It’s hard enough to beat divisional opponents in the NFL when you actually have a reason to try. The Bucs get outplayed for three quarters, then get handed a victory in the fourth. Tampa by three.

Carolina (+5) at New Orleans
In which the Saints remind the Panthers that the NFC South is their division. Well, not really theirs so much as the Falcons’. But if it weren’t the Falcons’ division, it would be the Saints’ division. Probably. Only maybe not next season. But this one, um, definitely this one … if it weren’t for the Falcons. New Orleans by a touchdown.

Miami (+10) at New England
Something tells me that a Dolphins-Patriots matchup in week seventeen of the 2013 season could prove meaningful for both teams. This season, it only matters to the Patriots, who might (but probably won’t) be playing for the two seed and a bye, and who could (but almost certainly won’t) steal home field through the AFC playoffs, and who probably (though not definitely) will at least need a win in order to hold onto the three seed and the remote hope of hosting the conference championship. No matter how things shape up, New England is going to go into this game looking for a decisive victory that will send them into the postseason on the right note. I suspect the Patriots get what they’re looking for, even if they don’t get everything they may be wishing for. New England by 14.

Green Bay (-3) at Minnesota
Wouldn’t it be interesting if, en route to securing the NFC two seed and a wild card round bye, the Packers ended up opening the door for the Giants, the team that has consistently given them fits in the postseason? No matter. Green Bay is taking the two seed, eliminating their division rivals, preventing Adrian Peterson from getting the 208 yards he needs to break the record for rushing yards in a season, and ensuring that the soonest they’ll see New Jersey is in the NFC Championship — and only if the Giants get past San Francisco and Atlanta first. Packers by four.

Kansas City (+16) at Denver
There’s nothing, not one single thing, about the Kansas City Chiefs that isn’t awful. The Broncos earn a wild card round bye and possibly, but not probably, home field through the playoffs with a decisive victory. The game is over by halftime, and the Broncos come out on top by 20-ish.

Oakland (off) at San Diego
What do you get when the second and third worst teams in football’s weakest division square off with nothing on the line? I don’t know and I don’t intend to find out. Chargers by seven.

Arizona (+16.5) at San Francisco
A win for San Francisco is the difference between going into the playoffs as the three seed (and maybe, but probably not, the two) which means starting the postseason with a home game against the (Giants? Vikings? Bears? Native Americans?) and going in as the five seed and opening with a trip to Washington or Dallas. That’s about all you need to know. Oh, also, the Cardinals are on their fourth starting quarterback of the season. (Poor Brian. I always liked him.) Niners by 21.

St. Louis (+10.5) at Seattle
Yup, the Seahawks are going to win their fifth straight game, extending what is already, by a factor of two, their longest winning streak of the season. And, nope, it doesn’t matter. They’re the five seed and the five seed they shall remain. Let’s see what happens next weekend when the NFL’s two top rookie quarterbacks, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III, go head-to-head. Seattle by 14.

Dallas (+3) at Washington
This is kind of it for Tony Romo, right? Either he wins this game and proves that the real Tony is the guy with the impressive regular season stats, or he loses and proves that the real Tony is the quintessential postseason choke artist. OK, sure, this game isn’t actually a postseason game. But it might as well be, particularly for the Cowboys. Because if Dallas wins this game, they’re the NFC East champions. (And, hooray! They get to host the Seahawks next weekend!) If they lose, they’re done. The Native Americans can survive a loss here so long as the Bears and Vikings both lose earlier in the day. But come on, now. You know the Cowboys aren’t winning this game. I know the Cowboys aren’t winning this game. And I rather suspect the Cowboys know the Cowboys aren’t winning this game. They simply don’t have what it takes. Romo throws a costly pick late and Washington take the game and the division title. Native Americans by four.

Busy week and no Thursday night game means it took me until Saturday to figure out ways to be wrong about all sixteen of the week’s games. Here’s what not to expect.

Atlanta (-3.5) at Detroit
It’s this simple: The Falcons are an uneven team that’s made a season-long habit of finding ways to win games in spite of themselves; the Lions are an uneven team that’s made a season-long habit of finding ever more ridiculous ways to lose games. I can’t come up with any reason to expect either of those trends to change. Atlanta by a field goal.

Tennessee (+12.5) at Green Bay
The Titans barely got by the Jets on their own field on Monday night. They’re sure as hell not traveling to Green Bay and beating the Packers. I’d add my usual caveat about the Packers needing to keep Aaron Rodgers on his feet here, but the Titans can’t get after the quarterback, so protection shouldn’t be much of a problem. This game may be close through the first half, but Green Bay will star to pull away early in the third quarter and will come out on top by at least three touchdowns.

Oakland (+8.5) at Carolina
Every year, the excitement with which I await the post-season is s tempered at least a bit by the knowledge that the regular season is coming to a close. Games like this, however, make the end of the regular season seem like a blessing. Because, you know, ugh, ugh, ugh. Panthers by ten.

Buffalo (+5) at Miami
Football fans in Buffalo and Miami can be glad that at the very least they’re not Jets fans. Dolphins by six.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
This game is being billed as a battle for the AFC six seed. And that’s technically accurate. The Bengals are in the playoffs with a win here, and a Steelers win would give Pittsburgh the ability to get in with a home win over the Browns in week 17. But there’s also this: If the Bengals win this game and the Ravens lose to the Giants, Cincinnati will go to Baltimore next week with a chance to snatch the division crown. I suspect they’ll get that shot. The Steelers, a team that leans heavily on defense, have given up 61 points over the past two weeks. They’ve lost four of their last five. They’re fading in a big way. The Bengals, meanwhile, appear to have recovered from their mid-season slump. They’ve won five of their last six games, putting up 28 points per game over that stretch. It’s a division game, and its in the Steelers’ building, so I don’t see the Bengals winning by much. But a point will be all they need. Bengals win 24-23.

New England (-14.5) at Jacksonville
I’m not sure there’s a lot that’s worth saying about this game. It has a college spread for a reason (or, actually, a lot of reasons). So I’ll just point out that Tom Brady has enjoyed considerable success against Jacksonville over his career. He’s faced the Jags five times, come out on top five times, and gone 114 of 154 (74%) for 1,207 yards (7.8 yards per attempt), 13 touchdowns, and no interceptions, compiling a passer rating of 124.5. And the last two times the Patriots faced the Jaguars, Brady was even more efficient, completing 49 of 54 passes (91%) for 529 yards (9.8 YPA), 7 TDs, and no pick, which gets him to a passer rating of 147.0. So, yeah, ugly is probably what you can expect. New England by 35.

Indianapolis (-7) at Kansas City
This should be interesting in at least one regard. Though you’d never guess it from the extreme disparity in their win-loss records, these two teams share an appalling inability to hold on to the ball. The Chiefs have 34 giveaways on the season, tied with the Eagles for worst in the league. The Colts have presented the ball to opponents 27 times, which ties them with the Steeles for fifth worst. The teams also have been similar in their failure to take the ball away from opponents. The Colts are last in the league with 10 takeaways on the season, while the Chiefs are tied for 31st with 12. So what does that all mean? Probably nothing. Only when I try to imagine this game all I see is the ball bouncing all over the field with players from both squads giving hapless, hopeless chase. In between the slapstick sketches, I guess I expect to see the Colts put up about nine more points than the Chiefs. So there’s that.

New Orleans (+3) at Dallas
Drew Brees and Tony Romo have thrown 34 interceptions between them. That’s a big part of the reason the Saints are out of the playoff picture entirely and the Cowboys are battling for a chance to lose in the wild card round. Given that the Cowboys actually have something at stake in this game, I’m going to bet on Romo to find a way to make a critical mistake at exactly the wrong moment. New Orleans by four.

Washington (-6.5) at Philadelphia
If the Native Americans win out, they take the NFC East championship — and go into the playoffs looking very dangerous. I can’t see them letting the awful Eagles get in their way. Washington by 10.

St. Louis (+3) at Tampa Bay
I don’t know. One of these teams isn’t going to lose. Is it the home team, or the team with something resembling momentum? I’m gonna go with option two: Rams by a field goal.

NY Giants (-2.5) at Baltimore
The Ravens need a win to clinch a post-season berth. The Giants need a win to keep their hopes of earning a post-season berth alive heading into week 17. But while the Giants have been uneven lately (OK, really, all season long), the Ravens over the last three weeks have looked like they just don’t have anything left in the tank. I think New Jersey finds a way to keep both the NFC and AFC playoff pictures interesting into the final week of the season with a three-point win.

Minnesota (+7.5) at Houston
Adrian Peterson is on a mission. Unfortunately for the Vikings, so are the Texans. Houston can clinch home field through the AFC playoffs with a win here. That, combined with the fact that they’re simply the better, more balanced team, makes the difference. Texans by 10.

Cleveland (+13) at Denver
There are an awful lot of people in New England who would love to believe that the Browns can win this game. They can’t. Broncose by 17.

Chicago (-5.5) at Arizona
Hey, it’s the NFL’s oldest rivalry. And, hey, the Bears are still hanging onto the hope of qualifying for the playoffs. And, yep, that’s exactly what’s interesting about this game. Chicago by a touchdown.

San Francisco (-1) at Seattle
If the 49ers can play a second straight prime time road game and come up with a second straight victory over a tough opponent, they’ll sail into the post-season as the odds-on favorites to win Super Bowl XLVII. If the Seahawks win, they’ll generate a ton of buzz about being the “team no one wants to play” in the post-season. And that’s about what I’ve got to say here, because in the matchup department these teams are virtually identical. I’m giving the advantage to the Seahawks, because (and only because) they’re at home. Seattle by three.

San Diego (+2.5) at NY Jets
Anybody have anything interesting going on Sunday night? Jets by a field goal.

I’m short on time this week, so here’s what you get. What not to expect.

Cincinnati (-4.5) at Philadelphia
Things are considerably more interesting in the AFC North right now than fans of teams outside the division realize. A week or two ago, Baltimore not only appeared to have the division title locked up, but had the inside track for the AFC two seed. Now, it looks to me like Cincinnati might get a chance to steal the division. Sure, the 9-4 Ravens still hold a two game lead over the 7-6 Bengals and Steelers. But the Ravens host the Broncos this week and the Giants next. Both of those teams are better than the Ravens, and both have the potential to win even in Baltimore. The Ravens then finish their season with a trip to Cincinnati. The Steelers travel to Dallas this week, and that game could go either way. Then they host Cincy, before finishing with Cleveland, a team that doesn’t look great on paper, but that’s been playing good football of late. (The Browns started their current three-game winning streak with a victory over the Steelers in week 12.) If the Bengals win this game, which should be a breeze, and go on to topple Pittsburgh, there’s a possibility they’ll be looking at the opportunity to win the division with a week 17 victory over Baltimore. That might look like a lot of ifs, but it’s really just a lot of possibilities. Of course, it all has to start for Cincinnati with a victory here. And the only way they don’t get that is if their heads are filled with weeks 16 and 17. I suspect they’ll find a way to top the hapless Eagles. Cincinnati by 10.

Green Bay (-3) at Chicago
This is a dangerous game for a Packers squad that has shown no ability to protect its quarterback. The Bears need a win here not just to stay alive in the division (a Green Bay win would clinch the NFC North title), but to stay ahead of a pack of challengers for the conference six seed. They obviously know that you can get to Rodgers, so one expects that’s exactly what they’re going to try to do. The question is, can the Bears D apply enough pressure over four quarters to keep Chicago in the game? I think they can. I expect to see the Packers struggle here and I have a feeling the Bears will actually find a way to steal a win. Let’s say by two.

NY Giants (+1.5) at Atlanta
Yes, it was fairly shocking that the Falcons lost to the Panthers last weekend. But it won’t surprise anyone when they lose this one to the Giants, because, records aside, everyone knows at this point that the Giants are the better team. New Jersey by six.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at New Orleans
Blah, blah, blah, Bountygate. These whiny, whiny Saints are enough to make you long for the whiny days of Archie “Whinemaster” Manning.” Would somebody just put this team out of my misery, already? Yeah, probably not this week. New Orleans by a touchdown.

Minnesota (+3) at St. Louis
OK, let’s see: 1,600 divided by 13 is 123; 2,106 minus 1,600 is 506; 506 divided by 3 is 169; 169 minus 123 is 46; and 46 divided by 123 is .374 (or 37.4%). Yeah, uh, it ain’t happening, AP. Rams by a touchdown.

Washington (-1.5) at Cleveland
Well, it was a nice little winning streak while it lasted. Right, Browns fans? The margin depends on whether Robert Griffin III is healthy enough to be effective, but the result is a win by the Native Americans either way. And by no less than a field goal.

Jacksonville (+7) at Miami
Ugh. Just ugh. Dolphins by 14.

Denver (-2.5) at Baltimore
In which the Ravens complete the transition from presumptive two seed to probable four seed (with an option for six seed). Which is to say, an ugly finish to a once-promising season in Baltimore continues here. Broncos by at least four.

Indianapolis (+8.5) at Houston
The Texans really, really, really need to bounce back from the beating they took in Foxborough on Monday night. This game accords them an great opportunity to do just that. I’m not sure the Texans can beat the division rival Colts twice in three weeks, but I’m confident they can do it once. At home. Though maybe by more like seven.

Carolina (+3) at San Diego
The mediocrity! The mediocrity! Home team by four.

Seattle (-5.5) vs. Buffalo at Rogers Centre, Toronto
You know you’ve got yourself a hell of a football team when a squad that’s known for not traveling well can cross the country to face you on something resembling (if only vaguely) your home turf and end up giving you five and a half. What more can one possibly say about this game? Seahawks by a touchdown.

Detroit (-6) at Arizona
The Lions defense has 30 sacks going into this game. They’ll likely have 40 coming out. And they’ll still barely manage a win (which I suppose is a step up from perpetually finding new ways to lose). Detroit by a field goal.

Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Dallas
I’m not sure I’ve ever rooted for a tie before, but that’s about the only outcome that could hurt both teams’ playoff hopes. And I really just want to get to the point where I can stop hearing about both of them. So I’m looking for a tie. Not expecting one, though. I’m expecting a narrow victory by the Cowboys. Because they’re at home. And because the Steelers look really tired to me, even though they’re probably the better team in this match. Dallas wins 17-16.

Kansas City (+3) at Oakland
The Chiefs, at -157, are the team with the worst net points in the NFL. The Raiders, at -154, are second worst. So, yeah, this one should be a barn burner. Oakland by a field goal.

San Francisco (+5) at New England
The 49ers will need to get a great performance out of their terrific defense to have a chance in this game. Because the 49ers simply don’t have an offense that can keep up with the Patriots if New England start piling up the points the way it has over the past several weeks. If San Francisco can bring some pressure, slow New England down and hold the Patriots to 17 or fewer, they have a chance. If the Pats put up as few as 24, the game is over. I expect to see the Patriots put up at least 30. So I’m taking New England and giving the points.

NY Jets (+2) at Tennessee
I’ve been saying it since the moments after their blowout loss to New England in Foxborough on Thanksgiving night: The Jets are going to win out and back into the playoffs. Here’s one more step toward the six seed. New Jersey by three.

Three quarters of the season down, the playoff picture coming together, and still here I am with next to no idea what the hell is going on. Here’s what not to expect in week fourteen.

Denver (-10) at Oakland
The only way the number ten factors into any assessment of this game is in a calculation of how many wins Denver will have at the end of the night. Nine going in, ten coming out. Denver by a bazillion (which I’m fairly certain is considerably more than ten).

Baltimore (+2.5) at Washington
The Ravens are fading; the Native Americans are surging. And Baltimore has zero hope of shutting down the Washington run game. It won’t look it, because the Native Americans will only lead by about nine, but this one for all intents and purposes will be decided by halftime. In by the time it’s literally over, Washington come out on top by something on the order of 16.

Kansas City (+6.5) at Cleveland
The Browns may not do a ton of things well (though they’re getting better week by week), but there are only four teams in the league with more takeaways than Cleveland this season. And — ready? here comes your moment of absurd understatement — none of those are the Chiefs. Count on Kansas City to do a whole lot of what they do best, put the ball in the hands of the opposition, as they earn their eleventh loss of the season. Cleveland by nine.

San Diego (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
It was just about to ask whether the Chargers could be any more done, and then I realized that, yes, they can. And they will. And it doesn’t even matter who’s taking the snaps for Pittsburgh. Steelers by a touchdown.

Tennessee (+5.5) at Indianapolis
If the Colts were a bit more balanced on offense, I’d be happy to give the points here. Indy’s D is terrible, but I’m not sure the Tennessee offense has the weapons to take advantage of that weakness. So all the Colts need to do is put up a bunch of points and commence worrying about the Texans and preparing for the playoffs. But that may not prove all that easy. I expect to see Andrew Luck throw a pair of costly picks in this game, and for the score to be closer than it ought to be as a result. The Colts win, but not by more than a field goal.

NY Jets (-2.5) at Jacksonville
Awfully confused meets confusedly awful. The good news for New Jersey is that they could stick 44-year-old Browning Nagle behind center and still come away with a win in this one (hell, he might even get Woody Johnson’s vote to keep the starting job). Jets by four.

Chicago (-3) at Minnesota
I’m more certain than ever, after last week, that the Bears simply cannot beat good teams. Of course, I’m also pretty damned certain that the Vikings just put half their offense on injured reserve. So Chicago’s ability to succeed against quality competition has exactly zero to do with this game. The Bears will win the turnover battle by three, the game by 13.

Atlanta (-3.5) at Carolina
The Falcons need two wins over their final four games to sew up home field advantage through the playoffs. They’ll make it one with a big win over the foundering Panthers. Atlanta by 10.

Philadelphia (+7.5) at Tampa Bay
The Eagles have decided to make the most of their early off season with a team trip to the Gulf Coast. Maybe they’ll pick up some pointers on how to play football. Bucs by a dozen.

St. Louis (+3) at Buffalo
I don’t know. One of these teams is bound to win. Let’s just figure it’s the home team, though it’s a push with the points.

Dallas (+3) at Cincinnati
We know the Cowboys can win at home against opponents who clearly don’t care. Should that lead us to conclude that they can win on the road against opponents who are trying to battle their way into the post-season? Even though I still suspect their playoff hopes are somewhat less than realistic, I think the Bengals keep themselves in the mathematical hunt for another week with five sacks of Tony Romo and a fairly convincing win over the Cowboys. Cincy by 14.

Miami (+10) at San Francisco
The 49ers need a win. The Dolphins are due for a loss. None of that matters, but what am I gonna do, explain to you why Miami can’t keep pace with San Francisco in this game? You already know. Niners by three touchdowns.

New Orleans (+5) at NY Giants
In which the Giants, having successfully put their hold on the NFC East in jeopardy, finally get around to turning it back on. It’s a good day for both quarterbacks, but a slightly better one for Eli Manning. Giants finish a high-scoring game with a last second TD and a four-point win.

Arizona (+10) at Seattle
I never would have believed it heading into the season, but the Seahawks actually have a shot at the NFC West title. The Cardinals, um, do not. Seahawks by double the spread.

Detroit (+7) at Green Bay
As long as the Packers can keep him on his feet, Aaron Rodgers should be able to shred Detroit’s secondary. Green Bay edges closer to the NFC North title with a 10-point win.

Houston (+3.5) at New England
I keep hearing and reading about how the Patriots are the better football team in this match, records notwithstanding. And that may be true. But I’m not as certain of it as others seem to be. No doubt, the Patriots have been good football lately. Their win in Miami on Sunday might have been their best win of the season — because they won in spite of the fact that their quarterback struggled a bit (as is his wont in Miami), and they did it with solid defense and an actual four-minute offense. Patriots fans should feel great about that. They should also be mindful of the fact that the Patriots were playing the Miami Dolphins. Yep, division rival and all that. But still, the Miami Dolphins. And the Miami Dolphins are most decidedly not the team with the inside track on the AFC one seed. The Texans, even if they haven’t looked as powerful lately as they did earlier in the season, remain a very talented, very dangerous team. They have a balanced offense, which makes it tough when your defensive orientation is to take away the one thing an opponent does best. They have a balanced D as well, though they do a particularly good job of getting to the quarterback and disrupting opponents’ passing attacks. That spells trouble for a team like the Patriots. And, on top of that, the Texans are almost as good as the Patriots at taking care of the ball. New England lives by the takeaway. The Patriots have 33 on the season, second only to Chicago’s 34. And, too often, they’ve used takeaways to compensate for defensive deficiencies. That’s OK; winning the turnover battle typically wins you the game in the NFL. But it’s unreliable. When you run into a team that protects the ball, reliance on takeaways can tend leave you wanting. None of that means that the Patriots can’t or won’t win this game. They can. They may. Since they’re at home, perhaps one might even go so far as to say they will. But it’s not gonna be easy. And I wouldn’t give more than a point or two. Let’s say New England wins 30-28.

To hell with the intro, let’s just get to it. Here’s what not to expect.

New Orleans (+3.5) at Atlanta
Yeah, Atlanta is 10-1 and two wins (max) away from sewing up the AFC South title, while New Orleans is 5-6 and two losses (max) away from starting to look toward the 2013 draft. That doesn’t matter. Because these two teams aren’t just division rivals, they’re division rivals that don’t like each other one damned bit. If both were 2-8, you could still count on them to play their best football and make this a close game. Plus, there’s really only one essential difference between these squads: The Falcons are able to play pass defense. That’s it. But the reality is, that’s been enough. It’s why Atlanta is winning the division. It’s why Atlanta is winning this game (well, that and the fact that its in their building). But they’re not winning here by more than a field goal.

Seattle (+3.5) at Chicago
This is an interesting match. Seattle’s playing on the road for a second straight week. That’s not easy. The Seahawks also are coming off a tough loss in Miami. That has to have taken its toll. So this should be all about the Bears, right? I’m not so sure. And it’s not really because I’m still not convinced the Bears can beat good teams. I mean, I’m not, but I’m likewise not convinced that the Seahawks actually are a good team. It’s more to do with the fact that the Seahawks take pretty good care of the ball. Seattle’s not New England or Baltimore in that regard, but they’re better than most. And Chicago wins mostly by taking the ball away. The Bears have more takeaways than any team in the league (of course, they they also have a lot of giveaways). And unlike the Patriots, who use takeaways as a mechanism for minimizing the harm done by their defense, the Bears have used turnovers to set up and prop up a fairly anemic offense. The Chicago defense has put 56 points on the board so far this season. On top of that, the Bears have six touchdowns and four field goals that were set up by takeaways. That’s 110 of 277 points (39.7%) as a result of turnovers. That’s great and all, but what happens when the Bears face a team that doesn’t give the ball away? I suspect we may get an answer to that on Sunday. Combine that with Jay Cutler‘s high sack total, 35, and the Seahawks’ ability to get to passers and you get what could be a rough day for Chicago. Of course, the Bears are still the home team. And the Bears defense is still a unit to be reckoned with. So the smart money is probably on Chicago, at least straight up. But I’m neither smart nor playing for actual money, so I’m taking Seattle to pull of the upset. They win it by a single point.

Minnesota (+8) at Green Bay
Assuming the far-too-often-sacked Aaron Rodgers survives, this one should be a breeze for the Packers, and another giant step toward an early start to the off-season for the Vikings. Green Bay by 10.

San Francisco (-7) at St. Louis
Benching a quarterback who had a 6-2-1 record as a starter and a 104.1 passer rating, who was completing 70% of his passes and throwing for close to eight yards per attempt, and who had a respectable 13 TDs to five picks, in favor of a kid who’s had a couple of good games (with no film for opposing D coordinators to study), but who makes more than his fair share of bad decisions, is going to come back to haunt the 49ers before this season is over. But not this week. This week, all the Niners need is for the D to take care of business and the offense to stay out of the way. They’ll accomplish that. San Francisco by nine.

Arizona (+4.5) at NY Jets
Let’s peak inside the mind of the post-game Jets fan, shall we? “If the Jets can beat the Cardinals, and the Cardinals could beat the Patriots, then the Jets should have beat the Patriots. And if the Jets can win one in a row, they can probably win two in a row, which means they must be able to win five in a row. That would mean 9-7, which probably means the Jets make the playoffs, where they get to play the Patriots. And since they’ve already almost, pretty much, beat the Patriots twice (except during those lousy 52 seconds) they can’t lose. And if they can beat the Patriots, they can probably beat any team in the AFC. Jets are going to the Super Bowl!” Welcome back, Fireman Ed. New Jersey by a field goal.

Carolina (-3) at Kansas City
The answer is, yes, I was really impressed by what Cam Newton accomplished Monday night in Philadelphia. And, yes, I believe Newton can carry the momentum into this matchup with the equally formidable Chiefs. But that’s not what I’m focused on here. Because I simply cannot take my eye off the turnover disaster that is the Kansas City Chiefs. I see at least two more on the way in this game, which Carolina wins by no less than a touchdown.

Indianapolis (+4.5) at Detroit
Note to Ndamukong Suh: Andrew Luck has already been kicked in the nuts in the recent past. So, um, maybe take it easy on the kid. The Colts may still make the playoffs, but only because the second-tier AFC teams are all kind of a mess in one way or another. The Lions aren’t going anywhere, but I think they’re still determined to prove something to themselves. They’ll take out some of their frustration against an Indy squad that’s considerably weaker than it looks on paper. Detroit by seven.

Jacksonville (+5.5) at Buffalo
I’m completely confident that the acquisition of Jason Babin will change everything for the Jaguars. Everything. I mean, what NFL team wouldn’t benefit from adding a defensive end who was cast off by the 3-8 Eagles? Maybe Jacksonville will only give up 27 points this week. And that’ll be helpful if their offense can figure out a way to score more than 14. But not helpful enough. Buffalo by a field goal.

New England (-7.5) at Miami
We could spend a lot of time talking about whether Miami’s average defense measures up against New England’s powerhouse offense well enough, or whether Miami’s weak offense matches up with New England’s questionable defense well enough, to give the home team a chance. We could. But let’s not. Because, no, they don’t. And no, they don’t either. And here’s what I’m going to tell you: New England, +24 takeaway/giveaway, best in the NFL; Miami -10, fifth worst in the league. Strange things can happen, of course, but by and large, trends like that don’t reverse themselves in a single game. Especially not when all other things are decidedly not equal. Patriots by two touchdowns.

Houston (-6) at Tennessee
Six? Really? Six? Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Texans have been flirting with a loss lately, playing down to the level of their competition. But come on. These two teams hardly belong in the same league. I’d give twice the spread. More than that, even. Houston by not a hair less than 21.

Tampa Bay (+7) at Denver
The Buccaneers are a better football team than they generally get credit for being. I think they’re heading for the post-season. And I won’t be the least bit shocked if they find a way to win in the wild card round. I expect to see them play the Broncos fairly tough for at least a half. But the Bucs still have a suspect pass defense, and that’s not a good thing to have when you face the Broncos, especially in Denver. The only way they win is if they manage to pick off Peyton Manning at least twice. And that’s not happening. Denver by four.

Pittsburgh (+8) at Baltimore
Sometimes, Pittsburgh, it just ain’t your year. Ravens get a stranglehold on the AFC North, winning by a touchdown.

Cleveland (pick ‘em) at Oakland
Ugh. Let me repeat that: Ugh. Browns by a field goal.

Cincinnati (-2.5) at San Diego
The Bengals are the fakest of all the fake playoff contenders. But you won’t know it from watching this game (if you have to watch this game), because the Chargers are done with a capital DONE. Last week’s debacle was the end of them. Cincinnati by one.

Philadelphia (+10) at Dallas
In prime time, no less. The only thing that makes this game even remotely intriguing is the distinct possibility that it will feature multiple turnovers on a single play. That would be a kick, wouldn’t it? Cowboys by 12.

NY Giants (-2.5) at Washington
Here’s where the NFC East gets interesting, at least for a week or so. The Native Americans played the Giants tough in New Jersey back in week seven. And Robert Griffin III is playing better football now than he was back then. I see a shootout, and I see Washington finishing on top this time. Native Americans by six, at the buzzer.

This week’s theme: What everyone will or should be thankful for around the NFL. Also, as always, what not to expect. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Houston (-3) at Detroit
The Texans, no doubt, are thankful that their letdown game on Sunday didn’t result in a (completely absurd) divisional loss. Now if they can beat a pair of 4-6 teams, Detroit and Tennessee, they may go into their week 14 Monday nighter at New England with a chance to secure both the AFC South title and a first-round bye. The Lions, I suspect, will be thankful when this game is over. Houston by 17.

Washington (+3) at Dallas
I think we’re all (or at least those of us who aren’t Cowboys fans) thankful for the ongoing comedy routine that is Tony Romo‘s professional football career. The Native Americans should be thankful that they’re traveling on a short week to face a team that barely (and only with the help of at least one horrifically bad call) squeaked by the Cleveland Browns in week 11. I don’t care how bad the Washington defense is, I’m going with the visitors. Native Americans by a field goal.

New England (-6.5) at NY Jets
The loss of Rob Gronkowski for the balance of the regular season is going to be a problem for the Patriots. When they play actual football teams, that is. Against the Jets, maybe not so terribly. The Jets are sputtering and very much in need of a team to put them out of their misery. And the Patriots will be more than happy to do it. By the time the evening is over, New England likely will be very thankful to have drafted and developed Stevan Ridley. Because New Jersey comes into this game with a run defense that is close to the worst in the league (allowing 142 yards and a touchdown per game, 4.4 yards a carry) and that hasn’t shown any signs that it’s capable of getting better. Ridley turns in a career game and the Patriots win by three touchdowns.

Oakland (+8) at Cincinnati
The Bengals, I suppose, must be thankful that they get to keep their pretend post-season hopes alive for another week by beating up on the thoroughly dreadful Raiders. Football fans outside of Cincinnati and Oakland should be thankful that the most we’ll ever see of this game are the lowlights. Bengals by 10.

Pittsburgh (-1) at Cleveland
I’m sure Browns fans are beside themselves with thankfulness at the fact that their only getting a point from a visiting division rival that’s going through a quarterback a week. Hooray! The Browns have arrived! Steelers fans, one might imagine, are less thankful for the fact that their team is picking up wide receivers and quarterbacks off the street in week 12. I’m not sure what to make of this game, but I imagine that no matter who starts at what key position for the Steelers, the Browns, true to form, will figure out a way to lose. Pittsburgh by a field goal.

Buffalo (+3) at Indianapolis
The Bills must be thankful that they’re traveling to face the Colts the week after Indy was humiliated (and possibly demoralized) in New England. The Colts must be thankful that they’re going home to face a team with a defense that’s even worse than their own. Buffalo keeps it close through most of the game, but the Colts pull it out by seven in the end.

Denver (-10.5) at Kansas City
Peyton Manning should be thankful for this opportunity to pad his stats. Manning moved ahead of Dan Marino to take sole possession of second place all-time in passing touchdowns last weekend, with 423. He’ll probably close about half the 85-TD gap between him and Brett Favre in this game. Or, you know, throw another three anyhow. Denver by 20.

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville
The Titans might very well be thankful that the Jaguars played their good game last week and have commenced shutting it down for the season. Or maybe they don’t care. I know I don’t. I’m not taking either of these teams to win anything by three. Titans by a point.

Minnesota (+2.5) at Chicago
The Bears have to be thankful for their takeaway-happy defense. It’s the reason they win this game with or without Jay Cutler. Chicago by four.

Atlanta (-1) at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers and their fans should be thankful that this game is being played in Tampa. It’s the reason the Bucs come out ahead. (Well, that and a second straight rough outing for Matt Ryan.) Buccaneers by three.

Seattle (-3) at Miami
The Dolphins may be thankful for the fact that the Seahawks have to travel across the country for this game, but it’s not going to help Miami one little bit. Seattle by four.

Baltimore (-1) at San Diego
The Ravens defense, which goes in with a pretty good 11 interceptions on the season, will come out with an even better 14 and will be thankful to Philip Rivers, who has thrown more picks than any other QB in the league. Baltimore by six.

San Francisco (-2.5) at New Orleans
The Niners may be thankful for Colin Kaepernick now (and well they should be), but I suspect they’ll be feeling rather more ambivalent come Monday morning. Because it appears Alex Smith is going to get the start. And the 49ers are losing this game. And that’s how you get yourself a quarterback controversy at exactly the wrong time. Saints by a field goal.

St. Louis (+2.5) at Arizona
No one’s as thankful as I am that I don’t have to spend any real time thinking about this game. St. Louis is edging toward being the better team at this point, but they won’t get there until they learn how to hold onto the ball. That’s not happening all at once in Arizona, so I’m taking the Cardinals. They probably win by a field goal.

Green Bay (+2.5) at NY Giants
Giants fans are thankful that November is very nearly over. They should be thankful for the fact that the Packers still haven’t figured out a way to keep Aaron Rodgers off his back. Rodgers took yet another three sacks, losing 17 yards, in Detroit last weekend. That gets his league-high season total to 32, which is better than three a game. The Packers overall are a better team than the Giants, maybe significantly so, but I don’t think you can go on the road and beat a team like New Jersey when you leave your QB exposed like that. So I’m taking the Giants. Let’s say by four.

Carolina (+2.5) at Philadelphia
Ugh. I’m, um, thankful for the fact that there are actual good prime time games coming up over the next few weeks. That might make enduring this battle of the dregs slightly less painful. I’m just going with the home team by a field goal. Because why not?