I’ve got five underdogs winning straight up this week, four of them on the road. So you know what that means: Five underdogs will win straight up this week and four of them will do it on the road. Only, it will be a different five than the ones I picked. The Jaguars, maybe. And the Jets. Because, you know, that could happen. Here’s what not to expect.
Buffalo (+4.5) at Cleveland
Here, two weeks later, is where the Trent Richardson trade finally starts to bite the Browns in the ass. The way you lose to the Bills (notice I didn’t say, “the way the Bills beat you,” because they don’t; you lose to them) is by relying too heavily on the pass. As Joe Flacco learned on Sunday, when the Bills D knows you’re going to throw the ball, they’ll sit back and wait for you to put it in their DBs hands. Yes, Flacco’s five-interception day is what propelled the Bills to lead the league in interceptions at the quarter pole. But Buffalo had four picks going into last week’s game with the defending champs. If they hadn’t picked Flacco even once, they’d still be ahead of half the teams in the league. So here they go to face the Browns, who have been prospering by Brian Hoyer‘s arm for the past two weeks. Cleveland didn’t run much (17 rushes to 55 pass plays) against Minnesota two weeks ago and didn’t run effectively against Cincinnati last weekend. That worked out well enough for the Browns, who won both games. But there’s still the fact that Hoyer threw three interceptions to the Vikings, not to mention that what the Browns really did that day was fare slightly better than their opponents in a tournament of ineptitude. If Hoyer throws three picks in this game, or even just a pair, the outcome won’t be nearly so rosy. And that’s exactly what I expect to see him do. I like Hoyer and I’d love to believe that he has it in him to lead the Browns through some kind of romantic, dark horse season. But I don’t think that’s happening without real run support. The collapse starts here, in prime time. Buffalo by a field goal.
Kansas City (-2.5) at Tennessee
The Titans haven’t given the ball away once this season. Not a pick. Not a fumble. Not a mishandled punt. Nothing. They’re the best in the league at holding onto the ball, which is why they’re tied for first in takeaway/giveaway with a +9. That’s pretty damned impressive. And normally I’d tend to see that and home field as offsetting the fact that the Chiefs appear to be at least a slightly better team than the Titans. Thing is, though, he team Tennessee is tied with at the top of the takeaway/giveaway chart is Kansas City. The Chiefs have committed the third fewest giveaways (3) and are tied for the third most takeaways (12). There’s also this: The guy who’s done most of the not throwing picks for Tennessee t his season is Jake Locker, who won’t be available for this game. The guy replacing him is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown 81 interceptions in 68 NFL starts. Maybe Fitzpatrick picks up right where Locker left off. Or maybe he picks up right where he left off with Buffalo. Or maybe the law of averages was due to catch up with the Titans at some point. I don’t know, but I’m not counting on perfection. And all that leaves me with is the sense that Kansas City is the better team here. So I’m taking the Chiefs straight up, but I wouldn’t give more than a point. Kansas City, 24-23.
Baltimore (+3) at Miami
One of these teams is going to lose a second straight game. Smart money says it’s the squad playing its second straight road game. But the other smart money says it’s the team that can’t protect its quarterback worth a damn. Think I’ll ride with the tangible over the intangible. Ravens pull off the upset with a three-point win.
Jacksonville (+11.5) at St. Louis
Ben Roethlisberger says the Steelers are the worst team in the league and that’s just patently unfair to the Jaguars, who have clearly worked very hard to earn that distinction. I mean, man, you don’t reach a point where you’re getting double digits from the Rams without having achieved something truly special. St. Louis by two touchdowns.
New England (+2) at Cincinnati
Yeah, I’m thinking another upset. Because, really, other than the thing (which is a real thing) where it’s tough to play back-to-back road games in the NFL, I’m not sure what the Bengals have here. Maybe they can run to where Vince Wilfork isn’t. That would be the wise strategy. And it may work. Or maybe not. The Bengals haven’t got a whole lot out of their ground game so far this season. Their only real success came against Pittsburgh, and, well, the Steelers aren’t really the Steelers this season. The Bengals managed 3.7 yards per carry against the Steelers, which is, you know, OK — good enough over the long haul and certainly good enough on that day. But against Chicago, Green Bay and Cleveland, they were only able to pick up an average of 3.2. That’s not good enough on any day. And while those three teams all have been fairly stout vs. the run, only Cleveland can be said to have fared appreciatively better than the Patriots. There again, though, that may change in the absence of Wilfork, who hadn’t looked himself this season as he dealt with a foot injury but nonetheless remained a force to be reckoned with along the defensive front. His absence may give Cincinnati run blockers the opportunity to open up some nice holes. And if it does, the Patriots could be in trouble, not just in this game but over the remainder of the season. I suspect, though, that while there’s really no replacing a player like Wilfork, the Patriots can at least patch things together well enough to deal with the Bengals offense. It’s not like you have to spend a lot of time worrying about the Bengals passing attack; it’s just not good enough. Neither has the Cincinnati defense, for all the hype it got in the preseason, looked like a unit that has much chance of stopping New England from scoring — regardless of whom Tom Brady has to throw the ball to this week. So I’ll take the Pats and look for them to win it by a touchdown.
Seattle (-2.5) at Indianapolis
Another upset. But at least this time around, I’m riding with the home team. The Colts defense is better than you think. The Seahawks are playing a second straight road game (sometimes it really does matter). And Matt Schaub isn’t taking the snaps for Indy. So, yeah, Indianapolis by a point.
Detroit (+7) at Green Bay
I’m taking Green Bay here, but only because the Packers are at home, coming off a bye and playing with their backs up against the wall. A good team can certainly overcome a 1-2 start, but lose this one and the Packers are 1-3 with a home loss to a 4-1 division rival. That’s not a strong position. Thing is, to date the Lions have been playing better football than the Pack. They’re probably the better team. If this were being played in Detroit, I’d pick it the other way. But it isn’t. I’m not giving seven, but I will take the Packers straight up. Let’s say Green Bay by a field goal.
New Orleans (pick ’em) at Chicago
There’s only one reason I can come up with even to consider picking a Saints team that’s traveling on a short week, but it’s sort of a big one: Defense. The Bears D has very little ability to keep opponents from scoring. The Saints D has. Or sort of, anyhow, against a lineup of mostly offensively challenged opponents. But you have to work with what you’ve got. And what we’ve got is evidence that teams with good offenses can pile up the points on Chicago. And I’m uncomfortable with the thought of Jay Cutler playing catchup with Drew Brees. Strikes me as a formula for a costly mistake. So I’m taking New Orleans — and expecting to see the Saints go into the final two minutes looking to protect a one-point lead and come out of the game with an eight-point victory.
Philadelphia (+2) at NY Giants
Sooner or later, the Giants have to win a game, right? Might as well be this one. Then again, maybe not. As bad as the Eagles are, I suspect the Giants are slightly worse. Philadelphia by six.
Carolina (-2) at Arizona
For whatever reason, I can’t bear to spend a lot of time thinking about this game. The Panthers have the better defense, so I’m taking them. Carolina by a field goal.
Denver (-7.5) at Dallas
Going with an upset here, as well. OK, no I’m not. Even I’m not that stupid. Tony Romo goes into this game roughly three interceptions behind schedule on both his career TD/INT ratio and career interception percentage. The correction has to start someplace. (And, yes, it’s also true that Peyton Manning is currently in serious debt to his career interception stats. A correction will happen there as well, but not yet.) Denver by 17.
Houston (+6.5) at San Francisco
Whose turn is it to grab Matt Schaub‘s weekly pick six? 49ers by 10.
San Diego (-4.5) at Oakland
I’m tempted, with the time change on this game, to make a joke about the Raiders turning into pumpkins at midnight. Problem is, these Raiders have never been anything but pumpkins. Then again, the Chargers are just pumpkins in disguise. San Diego wins it, but not by more than three.
NY Jets (+9.5) at Atlanta
Three weeks into their mini tour of the AFC East, the Falcons finally get a team they can actually beat. Nice for them (if not for the rest of us) that it’s in prime time. Atlanta by 14.
