This Football Blog

I’m not sure this has ever happened before.

To me, I mean. I’m sure it’s happened to normal people. But … well, yeah.

I actually managed to do better picking against the spread in week twelve than I did picking straight up.

I went 10-5 straight up, 11-4 against the spread. Still would have lost money if I’d actually placed any bets. But I didn’t, so I can just sit back and wonder how I managed so much as to come out on the right side of .500 for a change picking with th epoints.

I’m now 110-64-2 (.631) straight up, and 85-83-8 (.506) against the spread for the season.

Let’s see if I can get back to getting most everything wrong this week. Here’s what not to expect.

New Orleans (-7) at Dallas
Traveling on short rest is tough, as a result of which I only even consider picking the visitor in a Thursday night game if there’s an overwhelmingly compelling reason to do so. There’s an overwhelmingly compelling reason here. It’s that the Saints are the better team in every aspect of the game, and not by a small margin. So I’ll take New Orleans. But I think I’ll hedge a bit and decline to give the seven. Saints by four.

Indianapolis (-4) at Jacksonville
Let’s pretend for a second that the Jaguars aren’t more of a mess now than they were when these teams met in Indianapolis three weeks ago. Do you envision Indy taking its foot off the gas this time around? Because I don’t. Colts by seven.

Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
You know how you get to 29 giveaways through 11 games in the NFL? This is how:

That kind of nonsense doesn’t add up to wins. Not even in home games against middling teams like the Panthers. Carolina by six.

Baltimore (+1.5) at Atlanta
I don’t care (well, not much) about where this game is being played. And I don’t care at all about who starts at quarterback for Baltimore. The Ravens remain at least a good. And the Falcons don’t beat good teams. Baltimore by three.

Cleveland (+6) at Houston
The Browns have won twice as many games over the last two weeks as they won in the 2016 and 2017 seasons combined. They’ve won as many games this season as they won in all of 2015, 2016 and 2017. And they may well win one or two more before this season is out. But not this one. Texans by four.

Buffalo (+4) at Miami
I think the Bills can beat the Dolphins. But not until they meet in Buffalo to wrap up the season. Miami takes this one by a field goal.

Chicago (-4) at NY Giants
Should I bother pointing out that lack of a defense could potentially pose a problem for the Giants here? Bears by a touchdown.

Denver (-5) at Cincinnati
By the time they roll into Los Angeles for their second round with the Chargers in week 17, the Broncos are going to be 9-6 and looking to play their way into the postseason. The Bengals were fading fast even before they lost their quarterback. Denver by nine.

LA Rams (-10) at Detroit
Gosh, folks, I don’t know about you, but I’ve got a notion this one might get ugly. Rams by 17.

Arizona (+14) at Green Bay
By the time this game hits the fourth quarter, the national media will have decided that the Packers (still undefeated if you don’t count their 6 losses!) have righted the ship and are cruising toward the Super Bowl championship that is Aaron Rodgers’ birthright. Green Bay by 13.

Kansas City (-14.5) at Oakland
The Chiefs take a step toward the AFC one seed. The Raiders take a step toward the first overall pick in the 2019 draft. Everyone gets what they’re looking for. Except the fans. All they’re likely to get is drunk and angry. Kansas City by 21.

NY Jets (+8) at Tennessee
I have a hunch the Titans may make their week 17 rematch with the Colts interesting by winning their next four games and going in tied with Indy at 9-6. (This is my way of saying I have absolutely nothing interesting to say about the game at hand.) Titans by five.

Minnesota (+5) at New England
Five seems excessive to me here. The predictive stats say this is a narrow win for the Patriots. Look for yourself: Scoring differential; Patriots +1.8; passer rating differential, Vikings +2.2; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +3. That’s an even match. And, yes, that favors the home team. But I wouldn’t give more than the standard three. So there you go. New England by a field goal.

San Francisco (+10) at Seattle
The Seahawks’ push toward the postseason should benefit greatly from the fact that their remaining schedule features their home game against the Cardinals and both of their 2018 meetings with the 49ers. Seattle by three turnovers and 14 points.

LA Chargers (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
I don’t think either of these teams has beaten more than one truly tough opponent so far this season. And I’m not entirely sure that’s going to have changed by the time this game ends. But I think the Chargers are less overrated than the Steelers. Los Angeles by three.

Washington (+6.5) at Philadelphia
Anybody want to take the NFC East title this season? (Not talking to you here, Giants.) No? That’s just an all-around no? OK, then. Good to know. Eagles. Because sometimes mediocrity is contagious. By … I don’t know, let’s say seven points.

My amazing run of mediocrity continues!

I went 9-4 picking straight up in week 11, 8-4-1 picking against the spread.

For the season, I’m now at 100-59-2 (.627) straight up, 74-79-8 (.484) with the points.

Lots of games to get wrong this week. Here’s what not to expect.

Chicago (-4) at Detroit
This is the second meeting in a span of 11 days for these two teams. Let’s figure the difficulties of traveling on short rest cut the margin of victory from their previous match in half. Bears by six.

Washington (+7.5) at Dallas
I think the Racists could have kept this close if they had a quarterback. But they don’t. Dallas by 10.

Atlanta (+13) at New Orleans
Back in April, this looked like a great way to cap Thanksgiving. Now? Well, you can probably expect to see two or three Saints TDs before the red wine and tryptophan do their thing. So there’s that. New Orleans by 20.

Jacksonville (-3) at Buffalo
It’s hard to imagine that even the Jaguars can find a way to lose this game. (For the record, if there were a way, it would be turnovers. But I don’t see it.) Jacksonville by four.

Oakland (+11) at Baltimore
There’s nothing worth saying about this game. Ravens by two TDs.

San Francisco (+3.5) at Tampa Bay
How’s that Buccaneers defense shaping up? 49ers by a point.

NY Giants (+6) at Philadelphia
Who cares? Home team by a field goal.

Cleveland (+3) at Cincinnati
The Browns are abysmal. The Bengals are supposedly in the wild card hunt. And yet in Cincinnati, the Bengals are only giving three. And the Browns are going to cover. (Also, when these teams meet again four weeks from now in Cleveland, the Browns are going to win.) Bengals by two.

New England (-9.5) at NY Jets
Not that they’re in legitimate contention anyhow, but with a loss here the Jets would be officially eliminated in the AFC East. That’s not good news. This is bad news: scoring differential, Patriots +4.5; passer rating differential, Patriots +14.7, takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +11. That’s a bloodbath in the making, folks. New England by 13.

Seattle (+3.5) at Carolina
The outcome of this game may determine which team lands as the five seed and which as the six (which will likely be the difference between starting the postseason in Dallas or Chicago). Or it could determine which team is the six seed and which gets January off. It’s ultimately a pretty even matchup. So I’m taking the home team to win it by a field goal.

Arizona (+12) at LA Chargers
Chargers by 4:15 eastern. And no less than three touchdowns.

Miami (+9) at Indianapolis
Another game with the potential to shape the wild card field. The Colts are the better team and the team with the better trajectory. Indianapolis by seven.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Denver
The Steelers, who have been looking all over for an opponent that can expose them, stand a pretty good chance of going 2-3 over their last five games. If they want to hold on to the AFC North, and compete for a bye week, they need to win games like this one. And they should. Steelers by four.

Green Bay (+3.5) at Minnesota
This game really could go either way. But since the Vikings battled to a tie in Green Bay back in week two, I guess I have to give them the benefit of the doubt in their own building. Minnesota by three.

Tennessee (+6) at Houston
If Marcus Mariota plays, the Titans should be able to keep the margin here to a field goal, maybe less. But I’ve got a strong sense he won’t end up playing (or he’ll play, but not terribly well). So I’ll say Texans by seven.

Week ten was rough enough that I can’t really get worked up about my 9-5 finish picking straight up.

What about 5-8-1 against the spread? Yeah. Ugh.

I’m now 91-55-2 (.622) straight up, 66-75-7 (.470) against the spread for the season.

Let’s see if I can’t make it worse. Here’s what not to expect in week eleven.

Green Bay (+3) at Seattle
I can’t for the life of me figure out how the Packers are getting points from the lowly Seahawks here. I mean, I keep hearing/reading about how Aaron Rodgers’ team still has a great shot not only of getting to but winning the Super Bowl. And, you know, if you don’t count their four losses, the Packers are undefeated. Think about that for a minute. Meanwhile Seattle is a mere 4-5. And since Aaron Rodgers isn’t their quarterback, all of the Seahawks’ losses count. So, yeah, I for one believe firmly that the 4-0(4)-1 Packers can travel to Seattle on short rest, figure out how to play run defense on the way, and beat a home team that has effectively lost its division and has its back against the wall in the wild card chase. Totally. Either that or I figure the Seahawks win this one by roughly six points. Um, let’s just go with that last thing.

Carolina (-4) at Detroit
The Panthers have had a lot to think about over the last week, none of it pleasant. I’m sure they’re about ready to take out some of their angrier thoughts on someone. And, well, there’s that thing where the Lions have given up on the season. Carolina by a touchdown.

Dallas (+3) at Atlanta
I’m beginning to get the sense that the postseason may need to happen without either of these teams. Unbalanced home team beats unbalanced road team. By a point.

Cincinnati (+4) at Baltimore
The Bengals can lose this game and still fool themselves into believing they can recover and make a run at a wild card slot. The Ravens can’t. So whatever quarterback Baltimore puts on the field needs to take advantage of Cincinnati’s disaster of a defense. I suspect he will. Ravens by a field goal.

Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars haven’t won a game since week four. They’ve beaten exactly one good team all season. And that was in week two. It’s hard to see anything but a brutal outcome here. Steelers by 14.

Tennessee (+2) at Indianapolis
The Colts have no defense. The Titans have nothing but defense. Indy by three, I guess.

Houston (-3) at Washington
The Texans have gone from 0-3 to 6-3, which is pretty nice for them. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when they next run into a good opponent. But that may not be until January. Unless it’s here. I still have no idea what to make of the Racists. Maybe they’re actually a decent football team. If they are, they win this one. If not … Texans by one.

Tampa Bay (+1.5) at NY Giants
Are the 2018 Giants actually capable of winning two straight? If it costs them draft position, yeah, I’m quite sure they are. New Jersey by four.

Denver (+7) at LA Chargers
The Chargers continue to over-inflate their reputation by beating up on also-rans.  Los Angeles by 10.

Oakland (+5) at Arizona
I could have this wrong, but I suspect that when you’re getting five points from a team that averages less than two touchdowns per game it’s a sign either that you’re in serious trouble or that maybe, just maybe, the handicappers have it in their heads that you secretly want to lose. Cardinals by six.

Philadelphia (+8.5) at New Orleans
If there’s anyone out there today who still believes the Eagles can repeat as champions, one suspects they’ll be disabused of that notion by the time this game is halfway over. Saints by 17.

Minnesota (+2.5) at Chicago
If the Bears win here, they likely won’t need to worry about the week 17 rematch in Minnesota. (They should be locked in as the NFC three seed by that point.) Chicago by five.

Kansas City (+3.5) at LA Rams
Neither team will be seen in Mexico City. Neither defense will be seen in Los Angeles. Rams by a field goal.

I’d probably be somewhat pleased about having gone 7-6 with my picks against the spread in week nine — if I hadn’t also gone 7-6 straight up.

The former result is still awful, but it’s less awful than usual. The latter is well below even my shabby standards.

I’m not sure there’s a whole lot more to say. Oh, except that for the season, I’m now 82-50-2 (.619) straight up, and 61-67-6 (.477) against the spread.

Let’s see if I can flip the weekly results below the .500 threshold this week.

Here’s what not to expect.

Carolina (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
I’m pretty sure the Panthers are the better team in this match. But not by much. Certainly not by enough to move me to take the road team in a Thursday night game. Steelers by a field goal.

Buffalo (+6.5) at NY Jets
I’m not convinced this actually qualifies as a professional football game. Jets win 9-0.

Atlanta (-4) at Cleveland
Wasn’t one of these teams supposed to be good this season? Falcons by a point.

New Orleans (-5.5) at Cincinnati
The 5-3 Bengals are going 4-4 down the stretch. This is the first of two straight losses to start them down that path. Saints by 13.

Washington (+3) at Tampa Bay
Have the Buccaneers sprouted a defense? No? Good to know. Racists by a touchdown.

New England (-6.5) at Tennessee
Big three predictive stats first: Scoring differential, Patriots +4.2; passer rating differential, Patriots +9.8; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +5. That would point to Patriots victory even if the Titans weren’t a significantly unbalanced team. And the Titans are a significantly unbalanced team. New England by 10.

Jacksonville (+3) at Indianapolis
Imagine going from Super Bowl LII.125 champions in week two to getting three points in the battle for the AFC South basement in week 10. Quite a tumble for the Jaguars, wouldn’t you say? Colts by six.

Detroit (+6.5) at Chicago
I’d say that if the Lions can’t find a way to win this one, they can call it a season if it weren’t for the fact that the Lions already have called it a season. Bears by 14.

Arizona (+16.5) at Kansas City
For one week, it will look like the Chiefs have a defense. Kansas City by three touchdowns.

LA Chargers (-10) at Oakland
It will not look like the Raiders have a defense. It would be almost impossible to make it look like the Raiders have a defense. Chargers keep it on the ground all day, mercifully speeding up the game, but also limiting their margin of victory. Los Angeles by nine.

Miami (+9.5) at Green Bay
The Packers are 0-2 since returning from their bye. They’re 3-4-1 on the season and facing consecutive road games in Seattle and Minnesota in weeks 11 and 12. If they don’t win here, they’re done. The good news for Green Bay (however short-lived it may prove) is that they’re winning here. Packers by seven.

Seattle (+9.5) at LA Rams
The Rams have pretty much sewn up the NFC West. Their win here won’t make it official, but it might as well. Rams by 10.

Dallas (+7) at Philadelphia
The Eagles have had their struggles this season, and I expect those to continue down the stretch. But the Cowboys are in a full-on tailspin. Philadelphia by six.

NY Giants (+3) at San Francisco
Oh, cool. I can go to bed early. 49ers by six.

I suppose I should be OK with an 11-3 finish picking straight up in week eight. But I’m not.

I’m definitely not OK with 6-8 against the spread.

But it’s not like me being OK with it matters. That’s where I landed.

For the season, that gets me to 75-44-2 (.628) straight up, and 54-61-6 (.471) with the points.

I’m sure I can do worse.

Here’s what not to expect in week nine.

Oakland (+2.5) at San Francisco
This is the way the Battle of the Bay ends. This is the way the Battle of the Bay ends. This is the way the Battle of the Bay ends. Not with a bang but a whimper. The 49ers should be able to keep the ball on the ground (assuming they can hold onto it), control time of possession, and come away with a six-point victory.

Detroit (+4.5) at Minnesota
I don’t know if the Lions threw in the towel this week, but they sure as hell didn’t throw down the gauntlet. Vikings by a field goal.

Kansas City (-8.5) at Cleveland
Sometimes a team’s first game under a new coach can … or maybe the Chiefs will be looking past the Browns to their big week ten battle with the Cardinals … or maybe the Browns will get some key takeaways … or, um, I don’t know … something. But, yeah, probably not. Chiefs by 14.

Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore
I’m not sure the Ravens right now are the team they appeared to be when they handled the Steelers with relative ease back in week four. Baltimore has lost two in a row to good teams and is starting to take on the look of one those squads that feasts on weak and mediocre opposition and fades when faced with an actual challenge. Trouble is, the Steelers look like one of those teams, too. Neither Pittsburgh nor Baltimore can afford to lose this game. But one of them has to. That usually works out to be the visitors. Ravens by a point.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Carolina
Fitz was never the Bucs’ problem. But neither is he the solution to their problems. Panthers by 10.

NY Jets (+3) at Miami
Just for fun, let’s say the whole week two experience gets turned on its head and the Jets win 20-12.

Atlanta (+1.5) at Washington
I’m not sure the Racists’ defense needed to get better to secure a win in this game. But it got better just the same. Washington by four.

Chicago (-10) at Buffalo
It’s nice, I suppose, that Nathan Peterman is confident. Chicago by 17.

Houston (+1) at Denver
You think Demaryius Thomas might have a big game here? Actually, you know, he probably won’t. Five days isn’t really sufficient to absorb a new team’s system. Texans still win, but they make it happen mostly on the ground. Let’s call it Houston by three.

LA Chargers (+1.5) at Seattle
I’d pick the host no matter where these two evenly matched teams played. Seattle by a field goal.

LA Rams (+1.5) at New Orleans
No matter how much time I spend looking at this game, I end up at the painfully obvious conclusion that it comes down to whether the Rams can do a better job of slowing the Saints’ passing attack than the Saints do of slowing the Rams’ ground game. I suspect they can. And I suspect that as a result of that, the next meeting between these teams will take place in Los Angeles. Rams by a point.

Green Bay (+6) at New England
Let’s start with the big three predictive stats: Scoring differential, Patriots +3.2; passer rating differential, Patriots +4.6; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +3. That points to a narrow win for New England. But I need to see one more thing before I’ll feel comfortable predicting that result. I need to see a report confirming that Sony Michel is playing. He’s been practicing, which is good news for New England. But practicing and playing aren’t the same thing. And despite the matchup of big name quarterbacks, my strong feeling is that this game is going to be won and lost in the rushing game, which is to say it’s going to be a hard for New England to come away victorious without Michel on the field. I’m gonna assume he plays, as a result of which I’m expecting the Patriots to come out ahead by three.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Dallas
The unbalanced visitors are probably a bit less good (more bad?) than the unbalanced home team. Dallas wins 9-6.