Conference Championship Picks
I don’t know. That’s what it all comes down to. I’m not sure how we got here (which is to say, I went 1-3 picking straight up last week — though, hey, I did end up 4-0 on Wild Card weekend, so there’s that). And I have no idea where we’re going. That’s the long and short of it. It’s also a pretty good argument for why you should pay absolutely no attention to anything I have to say about the possible outcome of these conference championship games.
Still here? OK. You’ve been warned. So here’s what I’ve got to say in general. There’s a certain logic that says the Broncos, who are at home and who beat the defending two-time champion Patriots last week, and the Panthers, who are by far the better team in the NFC contest, should advance to the Super Bowl. There’s another logic that says both the Steelers and Panthers are playing a third consecutive tough road game, and neither should be expected to come out on top. And yet another logic says since defense wins in the playoffs, both the Steelers and the Panthers should win this weekend (plus, let’s face it, Steelers-Panthers would make for a hell of a game). And you know what? All of that reasoning is valid. All of it makes sense. And I don’t know what line of reasoning to embrace. So I’m just sticking with what makes sense to me, which is, as always, an entirely unhealthy mix of reasoning and gut instinct. That oughta get me all of nowhere. It’ll bit you on the ass, too, if you take my advice. So take my advice and don’t take my advice. Know what I mean?
Here, to the best of my ability, is what I think it all comes out looking like.
Pittsburgh (+3) at Denver
Watching last week’s Divisional Playoff round games confirmed something for me about each of these two teams. It became clear to me, for instance, that Denver is one tough-ass football team. Yeah, the Broncos didn’t play a spectacular game — they logged all of 286 yards of total offense (including just 96 on the ground) and gave up 420 on D (though only 79 of those were to the Patriots’ running game) — and they owe one touchdown to a horribly bad call (the pass interference call on Assante Samuel that put them at the goal line when they shouldn’t have been anywhere near it), but they played tough, the capitalized on the Patriots’ many errors and they found a way to win in spite of not getting everything right. And they did all of that against a team that had won two straight Super Bowls for a very good reason. That’s worthy of admiration no matter how you slice it.
But what I learned watching Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis was a bit more important. Because what hit me there was that the Steelers, when Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, are probably the best team in the NFL. That’s not to take anything away from any other squad. Not the Broncos. Not the Pats. Not the Panthers or the Seahawks or … well, you get the point. And it’s not to say no team can beat the Steelers. They’re as beatable as any other team in the league, particularly if they make the kind of errors the Pats made in Denver last weekend. Nor is it to say that the condition is permanent. Obviously, in this day and age, how good a team is changes with every injury and every off-season. All I’m saying is that right now, there isn’t a more impressive team in football than the Steelers. Forget that the Colts are a classic choke team. Forget that Tony Dungy’s teams never manage to come out ahead in big games. Just focus on the fact that the Steelers came out last week, stared across the field at an opponent that was supposed to be on its way to a Lombardi Trophy, that was big and bad and full of potential, and simply started punching. And they punched. And they punched. And they punched some more. And even when the refs repeatedly sent them to their corner so they could pick the other guys up off the canvas and give them another chance, the Steelers came right back out punching again. They did it until they sealed the victory. And in the process, they did just about everything right (excepting that one nearly crushing turnover near the end of the game). They threw the ball well. They ran the ball well. They controlled the game from virtually the first snap. And they beat the living bejesus out of their opponents. That’s good football.
So what happens when these two impressive teams meet? Well, I think it’s gonna depend on whether the Steelers have another game like the one they played last week in them. Because if they do, there isn’t a thing in the world that the Broncos will be able to do to win this thing. Denver has been capitalizing on turnovers all season long. The Broncos had the second best giveaway/takeaway ratio in the league in the regular season (+18) and we all know they couldn’t have won last week without the five turnovers the Pats committed (one short of the total number of turnovers New England had committed in its 10 previous playoff games, all wins). But whereas the Pats had a bit of a turnover problem ass season long (they finished with a -5 giveaway/takeaway ratio — pointing to a problem they need to somehow address leading into next season) the Steelers were a bit more solid in that regard. Yeah, Pittsburgh turned the ball over 21 times, but they also had 28 takeaways (so that’s a +7, for those who can’t or won’t do the math themselves). The Steelers also controlled the ball mostly well last week against a Colts team that logged 29 takeaways and a +11 ratio during the regular season. So I just don’t see Denver getting the kind of field-position opportunities this week that it got from New England in the divisional round. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers play a defense that’s very similar to New England’s, and I think that’s very bad news indeed for Jake Plummer and the Broncos’ offense. Plummer didn’t look very good last week. And the Pats pretty much shut down Denver’s typically impressive running game. I expect to see much of the same thing this week. I expect to see Pittsburgh force Plummer into making some big mistakes. I expect to see Troy Polamalu put seven points on the board. And I expect to see the Steelers come out on top by about three.
Carolina (+3.5) at Seattle
If DeShaun Foster hadn’t broken his ankle in last week’s tilt with the Bears, and if Julius Peppers hadn’t spent the week too beat up and too ill to practice, I’d be able to pick this game in a second. Seattle’s had an impressive season, there’s no taking that away from them. They’ve got the league’s leading rusher and MVP, Shaun Alexander, working for them. Matt Hasselbeck finally seems to have come into his own as a quarterback. Mike Holmgren appears to have proven his doubters (a group that included me) wrong. And the fact of the matter is that the Seahawks are a pretty likable bunch. But none of that changes the fact that when they’re playing their best football (as they have been for the last two weeks) the Panthers are the most impressive, and hardest to beat, team in the NFC. So if Foster were around and Peppers were 100 percent, I’d just say I’m taking Carolina and leave it at that. Foster isn’t around and Peppers isn’t 100 percent, however. And that makes me kind of uncertain about this game. (Never mind the fact that I’d have a hard time picking both road teams to win this week.)
I still don’t expect the Seattle offense to be able to get a whole lot done. I mean, they’ve had a hell of a season and all, averaging 370 yards and more than 28 points per game. But they’ve struggled against teams with strong defenses, and there are few stronger defenses in the conference than Carolina’s (the Panthers allowed only 283 yards and 16 points per game during the regular season). And while the Seahawks fared well enough last week when they hosted the Redskins (334 total yards, including 119 on the ground even without help from Alexander, who left early with a concussion), they only managed 20 points. And the Panthers are a tougher team to move the ball against than the Redskins.
But I’m not sure Carolina’s offense is gonna be able to give the D any kind of cushion to work with. Jack Delhomme certainly seems to be the kind of cool headed quarterback you want on your side when January rolls around. And there’s no failing to be impressed with the 319 yards and three touchdowns Delhomme managed against a hard-as-nails Chicago defense last week. But part of the reason he was able to do that was that Chicago had to account for the Panthers’ running game, which left Steve Smith with some room to make plays for Delhomme. Seattle isn’t gonna have to worry about the run so much. Sure, Nick Goings has his moments, but there’s a reason he started the season third on the Panthers’ depth chart and I don’t think that changes much just because he’s got the heart to try to step up in the absence of Foster and Stephen Davis. So Seattle should be able to key up on Smith, slow him down some, and try to keep him out of the end zone. That puts a lot of pressure on Keary Colbert, Ricky Proehl and Kris Mangum (who’s the only tight end Carolina has who could ever be classified as anything approaching a true pass-catcher). And none of those guys put up spectacular numbers in the regular season or over the last two weeks. That bodes ill for Carolina.
In the end, while I think the Panthers are probably the better team overall, I think the lack of a running game is going to do them in the same way it did New England in last weekend in Denver. You have to be able to run the ball and stop the run to win in the playoffs. Not either. Both. And I while I think the Panthers will do OK stopping the run this week, I can’t imagine they have much luck running the ball themselves. In the end, while I won’t be the least bit surprised to see the Panthers win, I’m expecting the Seahawks to come out ahead, if only by about a point.