Archive for September, 2004

Week Three Picks

September 24th, 2004 Comments off

Does this week freak you out? No? Well, my friend, it should. Wanna know why? Because there are a couple of big, like major, upsets coming on. There always are in weeks that the oddsmakers see as this black and white. Six games with spreads of a touchdown or more. Six. Out of fourteen. Three of those with double-digit spreads.

So I’ll say what I always say: If you’re stupid enough to touch a double-digit spread on an NFL game one way or the other, you deserve to lose money. I’d say go ahead, maybe you’ll learn your lesson, but I know you won’t. You never do. Because if you did, you wouldn’t be listening to me about any of this stuff.

For those picking straight up for pools, my advice is this: Is there a year-end contest in your pool or is it all week-by-week? And if there is a year-end payout, do you want to win it? If there is, and you do, go conservative. Take the favorites without asking why in all but the five closest matchups. You’re gonna take a hit on two of those games, and you’re not gonna win the week, but the alternative is to try to figure out the upsets. And that’s a bad idea. You’re not gonna get ’em all no matter what, so at best you’re gonna break even, and at worst, you’re gonna miss ’em entirely, and you’re also gonna miss the games where the upsets actually do happen, which is gonna bring you in at, like 4-10 or 5-9 on the week, which will screw up your quest for the bigger prize. If, on the other hand, you’re in a pool that only pays out for weekly wins, then you’ve gotta hunt the upsets, ’cause if you don’t get them, someone else will.

One last bit of overall advice: As usual, it’s a good idea not to listen to me.

Arizona (+10) at Atlanta
We all know what’s gonna happen here. Michael Vick is back in a big way, looking once again like the most dangerous (and most talented) player in the league. And Arizona, shockingly, is struggling once again, failing to balance minor improvements on offense with any improvement on D. So Vick has a big day, and the Falcons sail. But what if the Falcons are thinking the same thing? What if they’re thinking more about Carolina than Arizona? What if Atlanta’s D, which gave up 19 points to the 49ers in week one, doesn’t come to play? You absolutely have to take the Falcons straight up. And you have to believe they’re gonna win by 14. But I for one won’t be putting any real money on that.

Baltimore (-3) at Cincinnati
[Insert funny gag about Deion Sanders’ showboating. Ha, ha, ha! What a jackass.] Sanders is a non-issue. Jamal Lewis, on the other hand, is just ever so slightly more than Cincinnati’s D can handle. Baltimore, 14-13.

Cleveland (+3) at NY Giants
If Lee Suggs were definitely gonna be back, and Kellen Winslow weren’t out, and the Cleveland secondary weren’t so banged up, I’d almost certainly be looking for the upset here. But Suggs may or may not play. And both Browns’ starting corners are in bad shape. So there’s no way to be sure. Still, with Ron Dayne ailing, Tiki Barber’s gonna get extra opportunities to fumble. Look for him to make good on a couple of those. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion Cleveland’s gonna be able to capitalize on turnovers and pull off the upset victory even in the shape they’re in, but that’s about as hunchy as hunches get.

Chicago (+9) at Minnesota
Onterrio Smith rushed for 148 yards the last time these two teams met. And, yeah, that was last season. And, yeah, that wasn’t the same Bears team that shut down Green Bay last week. But I’m still looking for a big day out of Smith. The Vikes will win, and they’ll probably do it by 10 or more. But after what the Bears pulled off last week, I’d hesitate to put real money on this thing.

Houston (+8.5) at Kansas City
Kansas City can’t afford to start 0-3. And chances are, they’ll find a way to win this game. But not by eight and a half points. Not with a defense that’s giving up close to 200 yards a game rushing. Take the Chiefs straight up (unless you must pick an upset somewhere, in which case, what the hell), but the Texans to keep it to within a touchdown.

Jacksonville (+6) at Tennessee
I think this is a closer game than six points and I don’t care where it’s being played. The Jags know how to play D, which may not be true of the Titans. I think Tennessee finds a way to win it, but not by more than field goal.

New Orleans (+7) at St. Louis
Here again, I like the road dog to keep it close, but lose. Deuce McCallister, of course, is out. But Joe Horn isn’t. He’ll score two TDs on the day, which won’t be quite enough for the win, but it’ll cover.

Philadelphia (-4) at Detroit
The Eagles continue yet another push toward a stunning loss in the NFC championship. They’ll win and cover.

Pittsburgh (+1) at Miami
How low are the oddsmakers opinions of Miami when they’ve got the Dolphins giving just one point to a visiting team starting a rookie QB? Not quite so low as they’ll be after Pittsburgh actually pulls off the upset.

San Diego (+10) at Denver
The Broncos are favored by four more points than they managed to score last week against Jacksonville. That’s not saying much for the Chargers. Denver will win the game, of course, but not by anything like 10 points.

Green Bay (+5.5) at Indianapolis
My prediction that the Colts would start 0-3 went down in flames last week. I’d like to see Indy fall to 1-2 here, but it’s hard to have faith in Green Bay after what Chicago did to them at Lambeau. Ahman Green will have a big day (’cause he pretty much always does) and, with luck, lift his team over the whiny, whiny (and — aw, poor Indy — Edgerrin-free) Dolts, but I can’t see taking the Pack straight up. Take the points, but expect Vanderjagt to come through in the end and Indy to win by three.

San Francisco (+10.5) at Seattle
I don’t have a lot to say about this game other than never give this many points in an NFL match. Seattle will be up by two touchdowns late, but they might give up a meaningless score playing clock management D.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Oakland
Revenge for Super Bowl XXXVII? Not so much. Just a sloppy win by the Raiders and a sloppier loss by the Bucs. This one’s a push.

Dallas (+2) at Washington
ABC was always gonna sell this game by way of the Joe Gibbs vs. Bill Parcells angle, but in the end what choice did they have? The Skins, who turned the ball over seven times last week, are gonna have Patrick Ramsey under center. That should lead to some picks. The Skins defense, meanwhile, will be joining Vinny Testaverde in the backfield pretty much at the moment of the snap on most Dallas offensive plays. And with Vinny already throwing more times per game than would be comfortable for a guy half his age, you can expect a couple of picks to go the other way, too. Take the home team and give the points, but be aware that in the end it’s a coin toss.

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The Season of My Discontent

September 21st, 2004 Comments off

OK, so I’ll start by saying that I know we’re only two weeks along. I know most defenses haven’t really kicked into gear yet, and even a lot of offenses will be another couple of weeks before they’re really hitting on all cylinders. Still, I have to tell you I’m not at all impressed with the quality of the professional football I’ve seen so far this season. I’m even less impressed with the quality of a lot of the games I haven’t seen.

And, sure, I haven’t been tuned in to the Jets games, so I haven’t seen Curtis Martin (whom I like and respect regardless of the uniform he wears) tearing up the grass on both coasts. I didn’t see the Colts make a mess of the Titans this week. I didn’t see Michael Vick come to life and lead his Falcons to a big win over the Rams. Nor did I see Daunte Culpepper’s five-touchdown performance in week one or Aaron Brooks’ three-TD show Sunday. So it’s very likely that I just haven’t been tuned in to the right games.

Still and all, I couldn’t help but feel a little blah after watching the Patriots’ beat the Arizona Cardinals Sunday afternoon then moving on to watch the Cincinnati Bengals fail to lose to the Miami Dolphins in the Sunday night game. (I say fail to lose rather than win, because that’s precisely what Cincinnati did. Miami’s defense looked brilliant at times, but more often than not it seemed to me that Cincinnati just wasn’t trying very hard. They won mostly because somebody had to win and, well, you know, they made a kick.)

The Pats were playing a lousy team in the blazing sun. They probably lacked motivation and they were surely exhausted. They still improved against the run from week one (though I daresay the dropoff in talent from Edgerrin James to Emmit Smith these days is fairly precipitous). And shit, you know, they won by 11 points, which isn’t exactly having a bad day. It’s just that the getting there didn’t strike me as terribly interesting.

NFL Primetime didn’t do much to make me feel better, either. The big exciting moment in the Jacksonville-Denver matchup, a game that ended with a baseball score, was a fumble. A fucking fumble. If it had been an interception, that’d have been OK. I mean, at least it’s fun to watch a pick. And a pick means that someone (a DB) did something right. A fumble, even when it’s the result of a great defensive play, ends up looking sloppy on film; all you see is an offensive player who can’t manage to hold on to the damned ball. Seattle winning two road games in a row to start its season is fairly impressive, but a 10-6 win over the foundering Tampa Bay Buccaneers isn’t exactly a jaw-dropping way to get there. And while I’m delighted that my boy Rich Gannon threw for 209 and hit that very pretty 43-yard touchdown to Ronald Curry, one highlight and a 13-10 win isn’t what I would have hoped for.

Monday night didn’t do much to change things. It’s not like the Minnesota-Philly game was awful, it’s just that it wasn’t much. I went in hoping for an AFL-style airshow (you know, with Moss and T.O. in the game and all) and got … I dunno, a fucking fumble-a-thon, mostly. Moss had 69 yards and a TD, Owens had 79 and a TD (on four fucking catches). And both actually led their teams in receiving. Meanwhile, Culpepper managed to outrush Onterrio Smith to lead the Vikings’ ground attack, this by posting a big 41 yards on eight attempts. Brian Westbrook led the Eagles with 69 yards on 12 attempts. And no one could hold on to the ball. No one.

Offensive lines are crumbling all over the league. The chuck rule enforcement is slowing games down like crazy. And I don’t see any indication of things getting more exciting any time soon. Certainly not this weekend, not unless Green Bay rediscovers what a good football team it is and gives Indy a game.

I know things will heat up, of course. And I’m as delighted as ever that football season is finally here. But I’d like some great games now, please, if that’s OK.

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Week Two Picks

September 17th, 2004 Comments off

How many times do I have to warn you not to listen to me? People who listen to me lose money. Of course, people who don’t listen to me also lose money. Wanna know why? ‘Cause no one who’s listening to me or not listening to me is a bookie or a casino operator. Gambling is losing. Still, if you must, here’s how I see ’em.

Carolina (+6) at Kansas City
If there were any chance Carolina would avoid the post-Super Bowl season swoon, it went away in the fourth quarter of Monday night’s game, when Steve Smith was lost for six to eight (if not the whole season). Then Stephen Davis went down for a two to five. Color the Panthers done. Take the Chiefs and give the points without worrying about it for a second.

Chicago (+8.5) at Green Bay
Detroit may well be a better team than anyone thought. So maybe the Bears didn’t lose their home opener because they’re bad, but because the Lions are good. And Green Bay is working on a short week. So, you know, maybe think about taking the … oh, come on. I can’t do this with a straight face. Ahman Green is gonna rush for about 180 yards in the first half. Chicago’s gonna cough the ball up multiple times yet again. And the Pack is gonna win by a score of 24-3.

Denver (-3) at Jacksonville
Would it be possible, he asks as a dedicated hater of the Broncos and Mike Shanahan, for this Denver team to get a running back who doesn’t turn out to be a fucking stud? Maybe just once. The Broncos bury the Jags. (Yes, that means give the damned points.)

Houston (+3) at Detroit
You win the battle of turnovers, you win football games. That’s what they say, anyhow. And if you ask either of these teams about it today, they’ll tell you they’ve just learned how true that saying is. They’ll tell you about it some more after this game, in which Detroit will stick with taking the ball away and Houston will stick with giving it away. Take the Lions and give the points.

Indianapolis (+1) at Tennessee
Will the best team on the field win this game? Without question. Will the loser be able to admit that they weren’t the best team? Nope. Why? Because the Titans are gonna hand the Colts their second consecutive three-point loss. And the Colts, once again, are gonna whine about it instead of trying to figure out how to improve, thus setting up a third straight loss in their home opener against Green Bay next week. I’d call the Colts a bunch of babies, but that would be an insult to a bunch of actual babies I know.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Baltimore
If you’re smart, you’ll keep your money as far away from this game as possible. The Ravens have to be better than they looked last week. And the Steelers have to be worse. But who really knows? Take the Ravens straight up, if for no other reason than that they’re the home team. But don’t count on anything.

San Francisco (+7.5) at New Orleans
Deuce has one of those major days. Three TDs all by himself. Saints 31, Niners 10.

Seattle (-3) at Tampa Bay
What the hell happened to the offensive genius of Jon Gruden? These guys are starting to look like the Bucs of years gone by. Oh, well. Stop worrying about Alexander unless he’s on your fantasy roster. The Seahawks win this one by five or six.

St. Louis (+2) at Atlanta
It’s not that I have a lot of faith in Atlanta. It’s that I have a ton of faith in St. Louis. I believe they’re horribly overrated. Atlanta by three.

Washington (-3) at NY Giants
I’m going against conventional wisdom and picking the Giants here. Why? Because they’ll be halfway through their first drive before the Skins even show up at the stadium. That’s the genius of Tom Coughlin, ladies and gentleman. When early is on time and on time is late, you can win games without even trying. If you’re betting real money on this game, on the other hand, assume the league still thinks on time is on time and bet on the team with the better offense (hint: it’s the visitors).

Buffalo (+3) at Oakland
This has nothing to do with football, but here’s a thought. You buy seats specifically so you can heckle players from the opposing team, you’ve got a chair to the head coming. And then some. Buffalo can’t get it’s offense going. The Raiders’ can. Take Oakland and give the points. The Raiders win this one by 10.

Cleveland (+4.5) at Dallas
I think the Browns could win this. I’d like very much to see the Browns win this (fuck the Tuna and all). But they won’t. Vinny throws just one pick (a career day for him) and Dallas wins by three.

New England (-8) at Arizona
You never want to have your bye week come up early in the season, unless you’re the Pats and it’s this season. If New England were facing Buffalo next week instead of two weeks from now, they might have ended up looking right past this game and getting caught off guard. But the bye prevents that and the Pats sail past the Cards. That said, you can’t go giving eight points, because the Pats don’t win games by eight points. They win games by three points, mostly. And you can’t go taking the eight either, because the Cards mostly lose by, like, 20. Find a prop bet on how many different receivers Tom Brady will find during this game, or just leave it alone.

NY Jets (-3) at San Diego
Nothing in the world pains me like having to pick the Jets, but let’s face it. LaDainian Tomlinson may be the most talented RB in this matchup, but it’ll be Curtis Martin who has the biggest day. Look for Curtis to top 150, Chad Pennington to have a great day statistically if not in raw numbers, and the Jets to win by no less than a touchdown.

Miami (+5.5) at Cincinnati
A month or so ago, this looked like a matchup of great running backs. One team still has one of those, and that’s the one that’ll win, by at least six. So give the damned points.

Minnesota (+3) at Philadelphia
This much is certain: no one’s fantasy league results are gonna be anywhere near final until this one’s over. It’s gonna be a lot of fun watching Terrell Owens and Randy Moss tear up the field trying to one-up each other. And not so much fun watching their antics after every five-yard catch. In the end, though, the running game will make the difference. And I like Minnesota there. Take the Vikes with the points, because they’re gonna win straight up. Oh, and, um, in case you were on the fence, go right ahead and bet the over. The total on this thing’s gonna be in the low 60s.

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Week One Picks

September 8th, 2004 Comments off

Here’s a nifty little feature I’m transferring over from The Moon Hoax: a weekly helping of completely useless advice on picking and betting NFL games.

Why is it useless? Because this kind of thing is always useless. I don’t know what’s gonna happen on the field on Sunday (or tonight, or Monday night — or whenever they get around to throwing a Miami/Tennessee game). Obviously, nobody does. But I extra don’t. I’m not a handicapper. I’m not a full-time football analyst. (Not that those guys get it right either.) I’m not an anything but a guy who watches too much football and thinks he’s got it all figured out.

So why read this? Eh, I don’t know. Maybe it’s entertaining. Maybe you’re really bored. Maybe there’s a detail here that you missed elsewhere that helps you make a better pick on your own. Maybe I have as good a chance at figuring this stuff out as anyone else. Or maybe if you do the exact opposite of what I advise, you’ll get rich. You’ve gotta figure out what to do with this yourself. I just make the picks.

Here are my two big pieces of advice for week one:

If you’re picking straight up, like in an office pool or something, stick with the favorites. ‘Cause let’s face it, you haven’t followed every move every team has made in the off season. You don’t know who’s carrying the ball for the Titans or the Cowboys. (No one’s sure who’s carrying the ball for the Dolphins or the Vikings — not even the Dolphins and the Vikings — except now the Dolphins kind of know.) You don’t even know who Lee Suggs is. So who the hell are you kidding? Just take the word of the people who know these things. Games where the home team is favored by three or less? Flip a coin. It’s chances are better than yours (or mine).

And, if you’re betting, umm, don’t. You’ve waited since February for pro football to return; you can wait another damned week to start pissing away your hard-earned cash. You didn’t watch much pre-season football (I know, because nobody watches much pre-season football) and even if you do, all you really know is which teams’ third stringers stack up best against which other teams’ third stringers. You wanna stake real money on that? Well, my friend, you may just have yourself a bit of a gambling problem. And that’s cool and all, but, shit, my friend, go to the casino. The slots will treat you better. Trust me.

Oh, wait, one more thing: bet the over. Defense never kicks in until about week four, and with the league’s promise to crack down on illegal contact by DBs, we are gonna see some serious scoring until those guys adjust.

Here’s how I see ’em shaking out:

Indianapolis (+3.5) at New England
Three reasons the Pats are gonna carry this game: 1) Spread aside, too many people believe the Colts are gonna win. Straight up win. That’s what people thought about Pittsburgh, when they opened their 2002 season against the defending champion Pats in a night game at Gillette Stadium. They were wrong then, and they’re wrong now. Because people are always wrong. About everything. 2) The Colts are destined to be one of those bounce-back teams. They’re gonna drop at least two of their first three games — this one and their home opener against Green Bay for sure, and maybe even the game at Tennessee in between — and all the experts are gonna be talking about how their season is over. Then they’ll come roaring back and win 11 of their last 13, only to drop their first playoff game. That’s just how it’s gonna go for them. 3) The Colts have what looks like one of the league’s best offenses (again). The Pats have what may be the league’s best defense (assuming they really have replaced Big Ted Washington). So that’s sorta even. But the Pats O is way, way better than the Colts D, a fact that will become painfully obvious around midway through the third quarter as Brady spreads the ball around liberally and Corey Dillon chugs toward 100 yards on the night. Just watch. Take the Pats straight up, and if you have to bet, go ahead and give the points. The Pats are gonna win by a touchdown.

Baltimore (-3) at Cleveland
You might learn who Lee Suggs is in this game (assuming he gets over his neck stinger and plays), but with Baltimore’s amazing run D on hand to shut him down, you won’t learn what he’s capable of. Give it time. Meanwhile, look for William “Mean” Green to get stopped after a yard or two a lot and the Ravens and their lineup of alleged criminals to pull off an away win that will launch them toward a 10-6 finish and a playoff berth.

Arizona (-11) at St. Louis
You know how Arizona pretty much always sucks? Well, this season, they suck even more than you could possibly imagine. 0-16 looms. Pick the Rams, of course. Never give 11 points in an NFL game — except maybe this one.

Cincinnati (+4.5) at NY Jets
Cincinnati might just be a decent team this year with Carson Palmer under center and Rudi Johnson getting his real moment in the sun. And the Jets’ D is gonna suck yet again. But there will be no stopping Chad, Santana and Curtis this week. Look for the Jets to win and cover.

Detroit (+3) at Chicago
The Lions are being pegged as a sleeper team. And maybe they are. The Bears are being pegged as the team with Thomas Jones carrying the ball. Expect Jones to come alive and the Lions to remain asleep (for this week). Take the Bears and give the points.

Jacksonville (+3) at Buffalo
Two more teams with alleged sleeper potential. Watch this game and you’ll get a whole new sense of what the term sleeper means (actually, it’s a very old sense — primal, really). Just go with the home team straight up. Don’t give the points; don’t take the points.

Oakland (+4) at Pittsburgh
I’m picking the Raiders here, but that’s because I’m a Raiders fan and I believe they’ve got their shit together. I promise you the Steelers will not get any production from the run in this game. Not with Oakland’s defensive front there to stop them. Hines Ward, on the other hand, may well give the Raiders secondary a workout. And the Raiders’ offense? Well, we’ll see. Looks good to me, but, as mentioned, I’m a fan. If I were you, I’d pick the Steelers straight up and stay the hell away from the line.

San Diego (+5) at Houston
Watch this game strictly to see LaDainian Tomlinson run the ball, which can be a beautiful thing. Take the Texans, because they’re at home and because Drew Brees is not their starting quarterback. But don’t even think about giving those five points. Why? Because it’s the Texans giving five, that’s why.

Seattle (-2) at New Orleans
Seattle’s gonna tear up the league this season, right? That’s the word from the experts. I’ve heard that song before, though, and while I’m willing to listen, I’m a ways away from singing along. We’ve all heard that song sung about the Saints in the past, too, though. And it just never comes true. I’ve gotta go with the home team in the upset here, and I recommend that you do the same. Straight ahead, or getting two, the pick is the same.

Tampa Bay (+1.5) at Washington
Joe Gibbs was a great coach. Jon Gruden is a great coach. There’s really nothing else happening here that bears mentioning. Except that Tampa’s gonna take it by three. Take the points and make the pick.

Tennessee (-3) at Miami
Eventually, they’re gonna figure out how and where and when to play this game. And when they do, the Titans are gonna win it by six. Because, yeah, Miami has a decent D. But Ds don’t score too much. And Ds can’t spend 60 minutes on the field and still be effective. And Lamar Gordon ain’t gonna win a game all by himself four days (or three, or five) after getting traded.

Atlanta (-3.5) at San Francisco
Michael Vick to Peerless Price. Over and over and over again. Do the Niners actually have an offense? Even with Vick gimpy, Atlanta wins it by seven or more.

Dallas (+4.5) at Minnesota
Randy Moss is still a jackass, but he’s a talented jackass. Talent wins games. Moss has a big night. Moe Williams accounts for two touchdowns. Vinny Testaverde throws his usual three picks. And the Vikes walk away with a two-touchdown margin of victory.

NY Giants (+9) at Philadelphia
Poor Kurt. Poor, poor Kurt. Poor Giants. Poor, poor Giants. Maybe the offense will learn something if they can take their attention off their icepacks long enough to watch McNabb and Owens in action. Won’t matter. If you wanna run effective plays, you’ve gotta keep your opponents’ D out of your backfield, and the Giants can’t pull that off. Much as it pains me to say so, you’ve gotta be willing to give the points on this one.

Kansas City (+3) at Denver
Look for some great defensive play in this game, but don’t look too hard, you’ll strain your eyes. Or I could put it this way for those new to the game: Those guys streaking down the field into the end zones on pretty much every other play — those guys are called wide receivers. Yes, Denver’s D is better than it was last year, but it’s still not gonna stop the Chiefs’ O. And while Denver is lacking at wideout, it’d be hard not to find a way to get around the Chief’s secondary (the coaching may be better, but the players still have to do the work). Pick one of these teams to win, because one of them almost certainly will. Which and by how many points, I have no idea.

Green Bay (+3) at Carolina
Carolina’s not going back to the Super Bowl. They’re not going back, because they’re not gonna be able to maintain any control at the line on O. And while they’re D may be able to keep them in games, it won’t win many on its own. Green Bay, on the other hand, may be going places, if it can figure out how to shore up its secondary. This night, however, belongs to the defending conference champs, if only by the matter of a field goal.

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Oh, Yes It Is

September 2nd, 2004 Comments off

Don’t be fooled by the fact that Amazon’s site claims This Pats Year “has not yet been released.” It has. And Amazon is filling orders (I’ve heard from two people who have already received their copies form Amazon). I don’t know whether Barnes & Noble is filling online orders, but I do know the book is available in their stores. It’s starting to show up in indie book stores, too. So, you know, get out there and get your copy. If your store doesn’t have it, request it. If they don’t have it in their system, tell them they can get it from National Book Network. It’s easy.

Oh, hey, and if you wanna help me out, report sightings to me so I can tell folks where the book’s showing up. I mean, you don’t haveta (obviously). And if you saw the book but didn’t buy it, don’t feel like you’ve gotta lie to me about it. Just if you’ve got a minute to drop me a note, it’d be nice to have some extra eyes out there.

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Guru, Anyone?

September 2nd, 2004 Comments off

My old pal Don Fluckinger (who appears in two chapters in This Pats Year) has a new fantasy football column in the Journal News (White Plains, N.Y.). You should read it. It will help you. I’ll tell you what: the guy has been kicking my ass in fantasy for years now. He knows what the hell he’s talking about. I’m not in a league with Don this year for the first time. So I’m looking forward to making use of his wisdom in what is sure to be an ass-kicking campaign in the league I am in.

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