Wild Card Picks
You know, it’s not like Wild Card weekend ever makes for easy picking — there’s always at least one upset and you never can tell where it’s coming — but this year it seems to me that it’s particularly tough. And the reasons for that vary by conference.
The way I see it, there are exactly two teams in the NFC with a realistic shot at making the Super Bowl and neither of them are playing this weekend. Now, don’t get me wrong. Of course every team that makes the post-season is there for a reason and any one of them has the ability to win it all. But some teams are simply more dangerous than others. And some have easier roads to travel, are in better health, etc. So while I think, for example, that the Redskins and possibly the Bucs could beat Seattle, I don’t think either team can beat Chicago. And while it looks to me like the Giants, were they in the best of health, might have it in them to surprise either the Bears or the Seahawks, the fact is that the Giants are hurting pretty bad. And I don’t think they could beat both Chicago and Seattle in consecutive weeks even if they were healthy. So there’s my reasoning on the NFC in general.
As for this week, however, what I see in the NFC are four teams that have been rather inconsistent squaring off against each other. So, do the good Giants show up to play the bad Panthers? Or is it the other way around? Do the Redskins (and, most important, the Mark Brunell) of the past five weeks show up in Tampa Bay? Or is it the Skins who struggled through the middle part of the season and who had trouble getting started in a must-win game at Philadelphia in week 17? And who do those ‘Skins face? Is it the Bucs team that matched Washington point-for-point (plus one) back in week 10, the team that came up big against Carolina in week 14 and Atlanta in week 16? Or will it be the team that fell apart week 15 in New England and had trouble with New Orleans in its own must-win week 17 match? I don’t know the answers to any of those questions. And it makes the NFC games this weekend exceedingly hard to pick.
What makes this weekend’s AFC games tough to pick is the fact that, as I see it, all six AFC playoff teams have the stuff to get to and win the Super Bowl. Yeah, sure, I think the Colts, Broncos and Patriots have the inside track in the race to Detroit (the Colts and Broncos by virtue of being the one and two seeds, having to play fewer playoff games, and having home-field advantage, the Pats by virtue of being the most experienced and successful playoff team in the crowd), but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers went on a run, and I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if the Bengals or Jaguars did the same. (Or let’s put it this way: I think the AFC’s sixth seeded Steelers are 20 times more likely to make the Super Bowl than the NFC’s sixth seeded Redskins.) So which AFC teams come out of this weekend with a win? I’ve got some guesses, and I think they’re good guesses, but I can’t say I’m in any way certain.
Here, then, is my assessment of what might or might not happen this weekend.
Washington (+2.5) at Tampa Bay
Conventional wisdom says this game is defined by the axiom that holds that success in the NFL playoff is defined by how well you run the ball and how well you stop the run. Fair enough. Both of these teams run the ball well. The Bucs, behind rookie of the year Cadillac Williams, managed 4 yards per carry, 114 per game and 13 touchdowns during the regular season. The Skins, behind Clinton Portis, who’s banged up but still running like a demon, came out of the regular season with 4.2 yards per carry, 136 per game and 15 TDs. It would appear, however, that the Redskins’ slight advantage as a rushing offense is offset by the superiority of the Bucs’ rushing D. Tampa Bay allowed just 3.5 yards per carry, 95 yards per game and 10 touchdowns on the ground during the regular season, while Washington gave up 4.1 per carry, 105 per game and 15 TDs. That brings things pretty even there, doesn’t it? So what makes the difference here? Maybe it’s the passing game. Neither of these teams has a great quarterback. Mark Brunell has had his moments, to be sure, but his overall passer rating is an OK 85.9. Chris Simms, meanwhile, has a passer rating of just 81.4. Neither of these guys is gonna change the way the position is played. And both are up against good to very good pass D’s. The difference in yards per game is negligible; the Skins have allowed 193 to the Bucs’ 183. Both teams have allowed 15 passing touchdowns. And the Redskins have 16 picks on the season, while the Buccaneers have 17. So where’s the difference? Well, Brunell has thrown 23 touchdowns and 10 picks this season, while Simms has thrown just 10 TDs and seven picks. And Brunell has eight playoff games under his belt to Simms’ none. So I’m giving the edge to Washington and expecting to see an upset here.
Jacksonville (+7.5) at New England
Can the Jaguars beat the Patriots in Foxborough? In 19-degree (and colder as the night goes on) weather? In the playoffs? With a quarterback just back from a broken ankle, and probably not fully recovered (or perhaps a backup quarterback, who’s looked OK in the starter’s absence)? Absolutely. How? The same way the Jags beat other good teams (Seattle, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh) during the regular season: by leaning heavily on a defense that allowed the sixth fewest points per game in the league during the 2005 campaign (16.8). If the Jags can dig in and hold the Patriots to 17 or fewer, they’ll have a decent chance to advance to the next round of the playoffs. Will they be able to do that? It’s hard to imagine. The Patriots’ offense has been running in high gear all season long, and, like the rest of the team, only got better over the last five weeks of the season. And even with Corey Dillon back in good health and running like his old self again, the Pats managed to end the season ranked second in passing yards per game, with an average of 257. The Pats also scored 28 TDs through the air this season. That’s third best in the league. And while the Jaguars’ pass D has been fairly stout in terms of yards allowed (184 per game), it’s allowed 22 passing touchdowns — that’s a lot. My guess is that the Pats will be able to put up enough points get out ahead of the Jags and stay there, forcing Jacksonville to throw the ball more than a team with an injured quarterback really should, and the Pats’ healthy, dangerous pass rush will do the rest. I’m taking New England straight up, but since the Patriots only ever win games by three, I’ll take the Jags to cover.
Carolina (+2.5) at NY Giants
This, to me, is the toughest game of the week to pick. And it’s nothing to do with the statistical breakdown, because they teams come out so close to even there you can’t learn anything by comparing the stats. The Giants have the better offense, but manage only two more points per game than the Panthers. The Panthers have the better D, but allow only three points fewer per game than the Giants. Tiki Barber should have success running against the Panthers’ run D, which is good, sure, but not good enough to shut down Tiki. Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith should have success moving the ball against the Giants’ inconsistent pass D. So what makes the difference here? I’m not sure. And that’s the problem. Maybe it’s the fact that the Giants have suffered a ton of injuries, particularly at linebacker, and may find their defense strained beyond its limits. Maybe it’s the fact that Carolina has found more ways to lose big games this season (particularly down the stretch) than any playoff-quality team I’ve ever seen. I can’t know what factor is going to come to the fore, so I can’t predict the result. But since I’m just guessing here anyhow, I’m gonna go with the concrete (Giants injuries) over the ethereal (Carolina’s bad mojo) and take the Panthers in the upset.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Cincinnati
So here’s the thing: I’m thinking Pittsburgh’s tougher and more seasoned and probably better and should come out ahead in this game, right? But I’m also thinking I’ve already picked two road teams (Washington and Carolina) and three of those winning (even on Wild Card weekend) seems like a remote possibility. And since I’m not, at this point, gonna go back and start looking for reasons to pick the Giants (who will probably win now that I think of it) and Buccaneers (who will also probably win, now that you put it that way), I feel like I ought to pick the Bengals here. After all, Cincinnati does have the more high-powered offense. They’re young. They want it more. And if they can come out swinging, maybe get a 10 or 14 point lead, take the Steelers out of their game, they should be able to pull off a win here. But wait. I’ve already picked two upsets and since three of those are unlikely (even on Wild Card weekend), and since I’m not … oh, see the stuff I just said about the Giants and Bucs (both of whom are almost certainly gonna win now that I think of it) … well, I can’t comfortably pick the Bucs either. So I guess the only thing to do is go back to what I think is actually likely. It’s this: the Steelers, who are playoff tested, tough as nails and the better defensive squad, are gonna come out and give the Bengals (who won’t be so easy to beat in the post-season next year) a big old black eye, and walk away with a one- or two-point victory in a low-scoring game. So there.
