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Week Twelve Picks, part two

November 26th, 2006

Well, it ain’t Friday, but it ain’t quite game time either. Here’s my look at what not to expect in games four through sixteen. Hope you had a hell of a holiday.

Arizona (+6) at Minnesota
My guess is that the next time Dennis Green faces a team he used to coach, it’ll be Northwestern or Stanford. The Vikings stink these days, but they should still be able to manage a win here by a field goal.

Carolina (-4) at Washington
Will this be the weekend Carolina takes over first place in the NFC South race? I’m guessing yes. Meanwhile, the only question left to ask about Washington is what overpriced free agents will Dan Snyder waste his money on next year? Four’s a lot to give on the road, but with the way the Redskins are playing, what choice does one have?

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland
Man, I’d love to see the Browns, who damned near officially put the Steelers out of their misery a week ago, find a way to effectively hand the Ravens the AFC North (and essentially eliminate the Bengals from wild card contention). And given that Cincinnati’s defense is now statistically the worst in the league, there’s a least an outside chance of that happening. But I still don’t see the Browns being able to accomplish much on offense, and since Cleveland’s D and special teams aren’t likely to top last week’s 14-poing performance, I just don’t see an upset in the making here. Too bad.

Houston (+5.5) at NY Jets
In some respects, on paper, this is a pretty even matchup. The Jets run the ball ever so slightly better than the Texans. Houston passes somewhat better than New York. The Titans stop the run a tad better than the Jets. New York defends the pass a smidge better than Houston. Of course, the Jets score a bit more than a point more a game than the Titans and give up a bit more than a point less. So there’s that. There’s also the fact that the game is being played in New Jersey. So I’m taking the Jets straight up, though I do like the Texans to keep it to within three or four.

Jacksonville (-3) at Buffalo
Donovin Darius is gone for the season. That’s not gonna help Jacksonville’s secondary any over the long haul. But I don’t expect it to hurt too bad this week, since I really have a hard time believing the sack-prone Mr. Losmanwill be able to stay on his feet long enough to test the Jags’ DBs. I’m taking Jacksonville and giving the points.

New Orleans (+3) at Atlanta
A lot of folks are picking the upset here. And I totally understand why. Atlanta has lost three straight (though, in fairness, New Orleans has dropped its last two) and has seen its rushing production drop precipitously over the last month. Plus Drew Brees is on fire. But I’m not buying it. To begin with, last week’s numbers notwithstanding, I’m not sure I believe Brees will be able to continue to light it up with Marques Colston out of the lineup. I’m also not at all sure you can expect Atlanta to struggle to run the ball against a New Orleans defense that gives up 126 yards per game and 4.8 per carry on the ground. I think the Falcons pull off a win here, and probably do it by about double the spread.

Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore
The press in Pittsburgh, at least seems to realize that the Steelers’ season is over. The team’s post-Super Bowl crash all but complete, the media is starting to break down the likely dissolution of the coaching staff come January. Even still, I’ve heard Pittsburgh fans on the radio this very week talking about a run at the playoffs. By a 4-6 team. That nonsense ends here. Ravens by a touchdown.

San Francisco (+5.5) at St. Louis
It’s entirely possible something interesting will happen in this game. Like, maybe the 5-5 underdog will knock off the 4-6 favorite. Or something like that. If it does, I’ll find out about it on NFL GameDay. And my reaction will be something along the lines of “Hmmm, how about that?” Meanwhile, I’m taking the Rams straight up, the Niners with the points.

Chicago (+3) at New England
This, to my mind is it. This is where we find out if the Patriots are a team that’s improving and moving toward being a real threat come January, or merely a team that’s likely to sail into the playoffs by winning a weak division then hit a major roadblock in the divisional playoff round (yet again). The Bears are playing their third straight road game. That’s a game you lose about 60 percent of the time (more often when you’re opponent has a winning record. The Bears also struggled quite a bit to overcome the Jets last week. And we all know that when things go bad for Rex Grossman, they don’t just go a little bit bad, they turn completely upside-down. All that said, it’s not like we can take the Patriots’ grand outing last week against the league’s second-words pass defense as evidence that New England has solved all of the problems that have led the team to three home losses this season. Maybe the new turf in Foxborough will help reverse the dangerous trend by which the Pats are better on the road than they are at home. Maybe it won’t. By the end of this afternoon, we’ll know what’s what with the Patriots, and we’ll have a pretty good idea of whether they’ve got it in them to make a run for a February visit to Miami. I’m expecting New England to stay focused on the damned run for a change, get to Grossman early, and come out ahead by four.

NY Giants (-3.5) at Tennessee
At first glance, this game seemed pretty simple to me. The Giants may be on two-game losing streak, but the fact is they do virtually everything better than the Titans. That’s why they’re favored on the road and it’s why they’re likely to win. Then I started thinking about everything going on around the Giants. Like the way some fans wanna see struggling Eli Manning pulled Matt Hasselbeck or Jared Lorenzen (who looks to me like one of those idiots who walk around wearing shorts all winter long). Or the way Tiki Barber can’t stop spouting off about how messed up the team is. I’ve heard Tiki lay into both Eli’s mechanics and the coaching staff (for a failure to properly utilize King Douchebag) on his radio show over the past two weeks. And now he’s out there talking to the press about how he thinking the team’s play calling is a mess (which it kind of is, but that’s neither here nor there). And that tells me that the Giants are in serious trouble as a team. And I don’t care how much talent you have on your roster, that kind of turmoil can cause you to lose games. Add a bunch of ongoing injury problems, and I’m not at all confident in the Giants’ ability to get off the schneid. So I’m gonna go out on a bit of a limb and take the Titans straight up here. We’ll see how it plays out. I hope I end up being wrong.

Oakland (+13) at San Diego
For the first time in a long while, all season maybe, I think I just went a week without reading anything about the sorry state of the Raiders as an organization. Maybe there’s just nothing left to fall apart. I did, of course, read all about LaMont Jordan’s season being over. And, this is just a guess now, but I’m kinda thinking that’s not gonna make Oakland, which is maybe the worst team in the NFL, any more prepared to take on San Diego, which is maybe the best team in the NFL right now. So I’m taking the Chargers and, Oakland’s defensive successes aside, I’m giving the points.

Philadelphia (+9.5) at Indianapolis
You know, I’ve always liked Jeff Garcia. He seems humble and hard working. I root for the guy. And I hope he finds a way to have one last shining moment as Philly’s starter. But I’m not holding my breath or anything. The Colts rebound from their first loss of the season with a blowout here, topping the Eagles by 17, minimum. (Oh, right, Psssst. Hey, Andy. That’s Brian Westbrook over there. You’re up against the league’s worst run D and you don’t have your star quarterback . Hand Westbrook the damned ball. This could be your job, man.)

Green Bay (+9.5) at Seattle
Man, it’d be nice to see Green Bay find a way to beat Seattle. They won’t, though. I can’t keep track of who’s healthy and who’s hurt in Seattle any more, but I know it mostly doesn’t matter this week. The Packers will find a way to put up some points, I think, but the Seahawks will still win this one by a touchdown.

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