Week Five Picks
You know what happens a week after ten underdogs win outright in the NFL? Things settle down considerably. There may be some close games this week according to the oddsmakers, but we’ll see no more than two upsets, and possibly none at all. I’m guessing at one, but not for any real reason. My money likely will go on one of the bigger favorites — New England, Tennessee or Dallas — to cover. Here’s what not to expect:
Miami (+5.5) at Houston
Four weeks into the season and the folks in Miami are already wondering whom to blame. It’s gonna be a long, long season for the Fins. The Texans get some temporary relief from their running woes (it doesn’t matter who starts, you can’t fail to gain rushing yards against a Miami defense that gives up 200 of them a game), and have this thing put away by halftime. The final margin will be 10 points, minimum.
Jacksonville (-2.5) at Kansas City
Flip a coin. Both teams have been impressive on defense (Kansas City shockingly so, given what appeared to me heading into the season to be a questionable D line) and each has had exactly one good game on offense (its most recent). Jacksonville’s the better team, but Kansas City’s the home team. And since I don’t see much potential for outright upsets elsewhere this week, I’m gonna go ahead and take the Chiefs.
Cleveland (+16.5) at New England
I just don’t even know what to say about this game. I hope for Romeo’s sake it isn’t too ugly. The Pats have been winning by an average of 25. And the Browns, no matter what anyone says, aren’t nearly as good as their 2-2 record. So I’ll go ahead and give the points.
Carolina (+3) at New Orleans
Can the Saints get off the schneid and look like they’ve got half a chance to turn this season around? I can’t begin to guess about the season, but I’m pretty sure the David Carr-led Panthers are the cure for what ails just about any team in the league. Saints by four.
NY Jets (+3) at NY Giants
The Jets and Giants ought to be rooting for the Yankees and Indians series to make it to game four. Otherwise, someone might notice this game. And that won’t be good for anyone involved. The Giants fail to lose again, but only by a point this week.
Seattle (+6) at Pittsburgh
Six points seems rather excessive to me in this game. I mean, I expect Pittsburgh to win and all, but I also expect Seattle to play the Steelers tough. The Seahawks will set out to attack the Steelers in much the same way the Cardinals did last week, with physical play and an effort to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. And my guess is that Seattle will have a reasonable amount of success on defense, forcing Ben Roethlisberger to throw more than anyone associated with the Steelers would like him to, and creating some opportunities for Seattle’s DBs to capitalize on Ben’s inevitable mistakes. I don’t, however, expect the Seattle offense to be able to accomplish on the road what the Arizona O was able to do at home. And considering Pittsburgh’s defensive capabilities, that likely means some mistakes going the other way. By the time the clock ticks down to :00, I expect the Steelers to have won both the turnover battle and the game by a margin of one, two at the most (turnovers and points, that is).
Arizona (-3) at St. Louis
How long do you figure it’ll be before Gus Frerotte and Marc Bulger are sitting next to each other on the bench, nursing their wounds and watching Brock Berlin get his head knocked off? I’m thinking three quarters. Arizona wins this one by 10.
Atlanta (+8) at Tennessee
Could it be that the Falcons have started to get their feet back under them? I guess anything’s possible, but I’m gonna need to see a bit more than one good game, before I buy into anything. The Titans, meanwhile, have been looking more and more like a team that can compete with the top squads in the league and beat the stuffing out of most of the rest. The Falcons, whether they’re improving or not, remain one of the rest. I’m taking Tennessee and giving the points.
Detroit (+3.5) at Washington
I’m done dismissing the Lions outright. For the nonce, anyhow. Detroit still needs to establish a running game and a defense before I’ll even consider buying in for real (and I still have a feeling it’s all gonna come tumbling down eventually), but I’m willing to believe that their passing game is good enough to keep them in a lot of contests and even to lift them to wins more often than I might have expected. I still can’t imagine the Lions being hugely effective against Washington’s defense. And with Clinton Portis reportedly feeling good, I expect the ‘Skins will be able to play ball control offense and limit the Lions’ scoring opportunities. That adds up to a Redskins victory, by about a field goal.
Tampa Bay (+10) at Indianapolis
The good news for the Bucs is that it appears the Colts run D has taken a hit. The bad news for the Bucs is that it appears they don’t have a good option at running back at the moment. The Bucs may be able to keep this close for the first half, but the Colts will open it up in the second and end up winning it by about the 10 they’re giving.
San Diego (+1.5) at Denver
Look, I agree with everyone who’s saying the Chargers are too talented to be 1-3. And, you know, maybe it’s reasonable to expect San Diego to turn things around this weekend. After all, the Broncos can’t stop the run (they’re giving up 181 yards a game), and while San Diego has yet this season to move the ball effectively on the ground, you do have to figure Weepy Weepenstein is eventually gonna dry his eyes and start doing some damage. But, you know, LT hasn’t had a lot of success in Denver in the past, and I’m not sure you can reasonably anticipate anything either way here. I’ll say this: I don’t see Tomlinson getting a lot of support from the passing game this weekend. The Broncos have a fairly solid pass defense (statistically, it looks great, but that has a lot to do with the fact that NFL teams tend not to go to the air much when they’re kicking the living snot out of you on the ground), so I see no reason to expect the Chargers’ lackluster pass offense to come to life in this game. I do, on the other hand, expect Denver to have a good bit of success passing the ball against San Diego. I mean, the Chiefs managed to burn the Chargers to the tune of 284 yards and two TDs through the air, and the Broncos have a better passing attack than Kansas City. And I think Denver will be able to do enough on the ground (regardless of what may happen with Travis “Spliff” Henry)to keep San Diego from loading up the backfield. So, talent or no talent, I’m having a hard time seeing how I should expect the Chargers to manage an upset. That’s why I’m not doing it. Broncos by yet another last-second field goal.
Baltimore (-3.5) at San Francisco
I’m not entirely sure going with Trent Dilfer at quarterback ultimately presents that much of a problem for San Francisco. Yeah, Trent played horribly against Seattle, but I think that may have been a product of his having taken too much on his shoulders and trying to do too much. Assuming he’s been able this week to settle down and settle in to a role akin to the one he played when he was quarterbacking the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory a few years back, Trent should probably do OK. Eventually. But not this week. Because a QB like Dilfer needs a guy like Vernon Davis around to bail him out when he gets in trouble. And Vernon’s not gonna be back in the Niners lineup for another two weeks. That’s bound to make things tough on Trent, particularly given that the Ravens run D is among the best in the league (they allow just three yards a carry — 71 per game — and have given up only one rushing touchdown in four games). That means Trent likely won’t to be able to fall back on Frank Gore. With limited run support and a lack of a key target in the short passing game, Trent and the 49ers receiving corps are going to be under a good bit of pressure. And although Baltimore’s pass defense has been no great shakes so far this season, it’s not terribly hard to devise and execute coverages to stymie a journeyman quarterback whom your coaches know extremely well and who has limited options. It all should add up to a poor outing for Trent and the Niners, which means a fairly easy win for the Ravens. I’ll even give the points.
Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay
Brian Griese as starting quarterback has to be just about the best idea for fixing a team since Norv Turner as head coach. At least the Bears were actually in the frying pan before taking the leap into the fire. I’m guessing that doesn’t make burning hurt any less, though. I’ll take the Packers and give the points.
Dallas (-10) at Buffalo
Who schedules these Monday night games? Whoever you are, nice going. Real nice. Dallas by 14.
