Week Seven Picks
I hate to say it, but this week has upside-down week written all over it. Big spreads. Everybody thinking they know exactly which teams are good and which aren’t. Good teams lulled into a mid-season sleepwalk. Bad teams itching for one last chance to save themselves. This is when it always happens. So don’t be surprised if you start seeing final scores flashing across the bottom of your screen and they seem to indicate that Minnesota, Arizona, St. Louis … even the Jets have won their matches. And try not to bet real money this week if you can help yourself.
Now, all that said, I’m not picking massive upsets to happen straight up. Because, look, you can’t. I’m gonna pick the games the way I think they’d happen in a normal week. I’m just not gonna be terribly surprised if it turns out I finish 4-10. Of course, that can happen to me at any time anyhow. Here’s what not to expect.
Baltimore (-3) at Buffalo
Have you heard that Ray Lewis has been added to the long list of banged up Ravens? Yeah, that should just about even things up here. Baltimore by four.
Minnesota (+9.5) at Dallas
The Vikings may be one of the most spectacularly unbalanced teams I’ve ever seen. As everyone knows by now, you can’t stop Adrian Peterson, which is why the Vikings have posted a league-leading 170 rushing yards per game and an astounding 5.6 a carry (Peterson’s individual average is 6.3). But what’s truly remarkable about those numbers is the fact that they’re coming when everyone knows you don’t have to account for a passing offense when you play the Vikes. Their receivers stink. Similarly, on the other side of the ball, it’s almost impossible to run effectively against the Vikings (they allow only 66 yards per game on the ground, and just 2.7 per carry), but you can throw it all day long (Minnesota has allowed a league worst 288 passing yards per game). The Vikings D does have a nice nose for the ball — they’ve picked off seven passes already this season – which means this game isn’t gonna be a cakewalk for Tony Romo, but one still has to imagine that Romo and the ‘Boys will be able to accomplish enough through the air to make the lack of a ground game significantly irrelevant. Minnesota has the tools to slow this one down and keep it close, but not to win it. I’m taking the Cowboys to win and the Vikings to cover.
Tampa Bay (+2) at Detroit
I thought about trying to analyze this game, but then I realized it doesn’t matter. You know which team’s gonna win? Whichever one I don’t pick. So I’ll go with the home squad, because that seems the most sensible choice in a close game, to win by a field goal. But I fully expect it to go the other way.
Tennessee (-1.5) at Houston
If I knew whether Vince Young were going to start, I’d know how to pick this game. But I don’t. So I’ll just take the home team to pull off the upset. On paper, that is. Only a fool would actually place a bet on this game.
New England (-16.5) at Miami
I can come up with almost nothing to say about this game, so instead I’ve got a comment on each of the teams. I’ll start with the hosts: To my mind, the mere fact that Trent Green wants to go on playing is the clearest evidence that he really needs to retire. Now for the visitors: This constitutes thinking way farther ahead than is either reasonable or sane (you know, I’ve had a few concussions myself over the years), but I’ve been thinking it, so I might as well spit it out. It regards the 2008 draft. (And it assumes everything will continue to go as it’s been going, which is a ridiculous assumption to make, but it’s what I’ve got at the moment.) Let’s say the first-round pick the Patriots lost as a result of the whole videotaping scandal thing is going to end up falling somewhere between 29 and 32. That is to say, that lost pick would have come at #29 even if they were to finish with only the second-best record in the league and fail make the Super Bowl (which is really the worst-case scenario given the way things are going right now), and #32 if they manage to win it all. And let’s say the pick they’ve got coming as a result of their 2007 draft day trade with San Francisco ends up being somewhere between a top 10 and top 15 pick. (If the season ended today, the 49ers would be picking thirteenth, and their situation doesn’t appear to be getting any better.) And say it continues to be the case that the Pats don’t like picking in the top half of the first round. Now, let’s imagine that the Dolphins or the Rams or whomever ends up picking first overall, decide that what they really need in order to rebuild is two guys in the top half of the first round. What do you suppose the chances are that the Pats could end up making a deal in which they trade away that 49ers pick for the first pick in the second round of the 2008 draft (which, by virtue of the elimination of the Pats’ own pick would be the 32nd pick overall — that is, numerically equivalent to the last pick of the first round in most years) plus a first-rounder in 2009 and maybe a few other later round picks? If that were somehow to happen, it would mean the Pats could end up picking where a Super Bowl champion normally picks in 2008 — but with a discount based on the fact that the player selected would be the first pick in the second round rather than the last pick in the first — and have two first rounders in 2009. It’s just a random, and in all probability meaningless, thought, but I had it. And it concerns the Patriots. So here it is. Oh, also, I don’t see Miami’s awful defense having any ability to stop New England’s superb offense. Neither do I see the Dolphins O having much chance of making anything happen against the Patriots D. So I’m looking for a final score of something on the order of 42-0 in favor of the Pats.
San Francisco (+9) at NY Giants
Turns out the Giants have a defense, after all. Turns out New York’s particularly effective against the run. That’s bad news for Trent Dilfer, who won’t be able to count on Frank Gore to carry the 49ers offense. (Yeah, Frank hasn’t had much an opportunity to do that thus far this season anyhow, but he’s going to have to start getting those opportunities if the Niners are ever gonna have any chance to show some progress.) And given that Dilfer’s thrown three picks and taken eight sacks in two starts, the Giants’ Frank-stopping ability should turn out to be really, really bad news for San Francisco. I’m taking the giants and giving the points.
Atlanta (+9) at New Orleans
Maybe it’s true. Maybe the Saints have figured something out. Maybe they began a spectacular turnaround Sunday night in Seattle. But we won’t know that after this game. We won’t know it until they’ve played a few good teams. And the mere act of switching to a competent quarterback doesn’t make this Atlanta team good. It probably doesn’t even raise the Falcons to the level of not awful, which is about as high as we can, with any real confidence, place the Saints right now. New Orleans by six.
Arizona (+8.5) at Washington
I don’t think it much matters whom the Cardinals start under center. You can’t throw the ball successfully against Washington anyhow. Of course, neither can you expect to run the ball effectively against them, especially when they can comfortably stack eight men in the box. So, OK, from Edgerrin James’ perspective, it would probably be nice if the Cards had someone on the roster who was both qualified and healthy enough to start at quarterback. But they don’t. So that leaves Edge and the rest of the Cardinals offense without much of anywhere to go. And that spells a Washington victory, probably by three or four.
NY Jets (+6) at Cincinnati
You know when your team sucks? When you’re getting six points, even on the road, from the 1-4, defense-free Cincinnati Bengals. That’s when. Worse still for the Jets, I think Cincinnati covers. And then the Jets completely fall apart.
Kansas City (+3) at Oakland
This could be a record-breaking game. That is, it could turn out to be the quickest game in NFL history. I expect to see both offenses run the ball about 75 percent of the time (though Kansas City will mix in some effective play action and probably do its scoring through the air), which will keep the clock running. In the end, the Raiders will manage a few more rushing yards and one more point than the Chiefs.
Chicago (+5.5) at Philadelphia
Can I offer a little advice, Andy? Here’s what I’m thinking: Don’t kick the damned ball to Devin Hester. But, you know, it’s just a thought. You’re the coach. (Assuming Andy takes my advice, I’ll take the Eagles to edge the Bears by a field goal in a very high-scoring game.)
St. Louis (+9) at Seattle
So Seattle’s ineffective on both sides of the ball. And Shaun Alexander has been revealed as a guy who can’t pick up yards unless your O line opens giant holes for him on every play. And the Seahawks are lucky to be 3-3. And they’ll only win the NFC West if it turns out that Arizona doesn’t really want it. That’s all nice and everything. But the Rams absolutely stink. Seattle by a touchdown.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Denver
Pittsburgh gives up fewer points than any team in the league (9.4 per game) and scores more than all but four (26.4). Denver allows the fifth most points (27.2) and puts up the fifth fewest (15). I could spend all day talking about individual matchups that favor Pittsburgh, or about Denver always playing well coming off a bye, but what would be the point? Pittsburgh by a touchdown.
Indianapolis (-3) at Jacksonville
If I were a smart man, I’d have looked at this game for 10 seconds, decided there’s no reason to pick against the Colts and called it a day. But I’m not a smart man. I’m a stupid, stupid man. So I started thinking about how Jacksonville has been running the ball well and stopping the run well. And how Indianapolis has been running the ball not quite as well and stopping the run not quite as well. And I thought about how that was kind of how things were trending when Indy traveled to Jacksonville in week 14 of last season, and how the Jags beat the living bejesus out of the Colts that week. So I decided to pick Jacksonville to beat the bejesus out of Indianapolis again here. But I know I’m gonna regret that come Monday night (or early Tuesday morning, most likely). I am a stupid, stupid man.
