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Week Eleven Picks

November 16th, 2007

Here we go, then. The home stretch. Teams fighting for the playoffs. Teams struggling through injuries. Teams planning for next season. I know which ones are which, but I don’t know much else, which is to say, please don’t start taking my advice now. Here’s what not to expect in week eleven.

Tampa Bay (-3) at Atlanta
Hey, the Falcons have resolved the burning question regarding their quarterback situation. So that means the Falcons don’t totally suck anymore, right? Bucs by a field goal.

Cleveland (-3) at Baltimore
I’ll start with the answer: The Ravens and their fans reportedly are very excited to have Kyle Boller back under center. Now the question: Exactly how bad are things in Baltimore right now? Man, it’s too bad the Ravens didn’t draft a guy like Derek Anderson when they had the chance. (What’s that? Oh. Really? Huh. That’s kinda sad.) OK, then, the new Browns wipe the floor with the old Browns, behind a guy who could have been taking snaps on the other side. (Man, that really has to hurt.) And, uh, yes, I’m giving the damned points.

Arizona (+3) at Cincinnati
The Bengals need to start winning some games this week if Marvin Lewis is gonna have any chance of remaining employed come early January. Sorry, Marv. Cards by a touchdown.

Carolina (+10) at Green Bay
If a quarterback (any quarterback) starts for Carolina and no one’s there to catch passes, is he really starting at all? You figure it out. I’m giving the points.

New Orleans (pick ’em) at Houston
After puzzling over this game for most of the week, I turned to my Magic 8-Ball. Here’s what it said, “Don’t ask me. Just bet the damned over and have done with it.” I’m taking that advice. And just for fun, I guess I’ll go with New Orleans to win.

NY Giants (-2.5) at Detroit
The Lions had a nice little run to start the season. They come into this game 6-3, which is more than anyone other than Jon Kitna thought was possible. The question now is can they make Kitna look like a true prophet? All they have to do is go 4-3 the rest of the way. So that should be easy. Except it really isn’t. And they won’t. Giants by six.

Kansas City (+14.5) at Indianapolis
Yeah, you can assert the opposite all you want, but those of us who are looking at the situation realistically are full aware that losing Dwight Freeney for the season is going to create serious problems for the Colts. Eventually, that is. Not this week. This week Indy wins by two touchdowns (which, you may note, is half a point less than they’re giving).

San Diego (+3) at Jacksonville
I spent the whole damned week trying to figure out which team has the edge in this game. And I’ve got almost nothing to show for it. These teams are even up and down the line. Except maybe here: the Jaguars have been fairly effective scoring through the air and Chargers’ D has had a tendency to allow passing touchdowns. That ain’t much, but with nothing else to go on, I’m hitching my wagon to it. Jacksonville by four.

Oakland (+5.5) at Minnesota
No AP? No problem. Not this week, anyhow. Jerry Springer’s pal Kenny could manage 120 yards and three TDs against the Raiders. Minnesota by seven.

Miami (+10.5) at Philadelphia
Welcome to the NFL, John. Hey, um, if you should find yourself in need of a little something after the game (you know, for the pain), you should probably talk to Ricky. Even if they have to go without Brian Westbrook, the Eagles should be able to win this one (though they only cover if Westbrook plays, so keep your money away from this game).

Pittsburgh (-9) at NY Jets
Apparently, Laveranues Coles no longer has fog in his noggin. That, no doubt, is a mixed blessing for Coles, who’s bound to notice at some point that he still plays for the Jets. Steelers by 14.

Chicago (+5.5) at Seattle
Oh, hooray, Rex is back. Let’s have a party or something. Or not. I’m taking the Seahawks and giving the points.

St. Louis (-3) at San Francisco
Dah-dum, dah-dum, dah-dah-dah-dah-dum. Dah-dum, dah-dum, dah-dee-dum. Dah-dum, dah-dum, dah-dah-dah-dah-dum, Dum, dum, dah-dee-dum. This is a goddamned joke. Yeah, the Rams are actually favored. They’re actually the better team for once this season. Start doing your little dance, Pats fans. Rams by seven.

Washington (+11) at Dallas
A week after they put the Giants away, the Cowboys effectively wrap up the NFC East. After this, it’s all about the battle with Green Bay for home field through the playoffs. Cowboys by 10.

New England (-15.5) at Buffalo
The Bills would have had a difficult enough time keeping up with the Patriots with Marshawn Lynch in the lineup. Without him, they’re as good as done. Pats by the standard 23.

Tennessee (+2.5) at Denver
You don’t win games in the NFL by giving up 151 yards on the ground. Especially not when you face an opponent with a running game that doesn’t need a lot of help. Titans by a touchdown.

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