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Week Thirteen, Pt. 1

November 29th, 2007

I thought I might have time to run down all of this weeks games before the big Thursday night affair that virtually no one is going to see got started. But I was wrong. So here’s my take on that game. I’ll get to the rest later.

Green Bay (+7) at Dallas
You know, I know the thing about how Brett Favre has never won in Texas Stadium. I get it. I also get the fact that the Cowboys are the home team, and in an evenly matched game, you take the home team. I get all of that. But I’m still taking Green Bay. Here’s why: 1.) Field Turf. Part of Favre’s problems at Texas Stadium had to do with the crown on the old field there. Favre, like a lot of quarterbacks, would overthrow his receivers on outs, because they’d be so far downhill from him. And outs are dangerous patterns as it is, because they can result in picks. That crown is gone. And I think a lot of Favre’s issues will be gone with it. 2.) I don’t think Dallas has the depth in its defensive backfield to cover Green Bay’s receivers. The Packers will spread the field and pick apart the Cowboys’ secondary. 3.) I don’t think it’ll matter that the Dallas D is great against the run, because Green Bay doesn’t run the ball well (or much) anyhow (and the Packers have still made it to 10-1. 4.) I don’t think it’ll matter much that Dallas runs the ball very well, because Green Bay’s D is also great against the run and because Dallas is gonna have to go to the air in order to keep up with Green Bay’s offense. 5.) If the game is close late, as I expect it to be, and it comes down to a quarterback leading his team to victory, I like Green Bay. 6.) If the game is close late and it comes down to a team needing one big defensive play to close the deal, I like Green Bay. That’s all I’ve got. Packers by three.

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