Home > Uncategorized > Week Fourteen Picks

Week Fourteen Picks

December 5th, 2007

The thing that makes this week dangerous is that it seems so damned easy. Maybe 12 of the 16 games on the slate at least appear to be foregone conclusions. But that always means there are two or three big upsets on the horizon. I think I see likely spots for two of them. But I’m probably wrong. I usually am. Here’s what not to expect.

Chicago (+3) at Washington
Looking forward at the beginning of the season, you might have guessed this game would have playoff implications for at least one of the teams, and possibly for both. And in a way it does. At the end of the night, one of these squads will be 5-8 and a step closer to official elimination while the other will be 6-7 and hanging on to a realistic shot at the post season (the leading team for the NFC six seed at the end of this weekend will most likely be 7-6 — and known as the Vikings — and a one-game lead ain’t exactly insurmountable, particularly since Minnesota’s next two opponents are Chicago and Washington). The reality, however, is that neither of these teams seems likely to have anything but New Year’s parties on their schedule after December 30. Neither offense has been effective this season. And to the extent Washington has shown ability on D, it’s only done so sporadically. The difference in this game is pretty clear. The Redskins offense is fairly effective on the ground, while the Bears’ run D is particularly ineffective (surrendering close to 131 yards a game). I expect to see Clinton Portis have a big night. And as long as the Redskins can hold on to the ball (or at least log more interceptions than they give up fumbles), I think that adds up to a Washington victory. And, sure, I’ll give the points.

Miami (+7) at Buffalo
The Bills probably won’t have a victory handed to them this weekend. But that’s OK. They can beat Miami all by themselves. Buffalo by 14.

St. Louis (+6.5) at Cincinnati
Hey, guess what. Marc Bulger might play. Seriously, he might. Wow, huh? So that makes this game exciting, doesn’t it? No? So you’re saying no one outside of St. Louis and Cincinnati (and maybe a few people in Cleveland) cares about this game in any way? OK, then, guess I might as well go ahead and pick the upset. Rams by two behind a big day from Steven Jackson.

Dallas (-11) at Detroit
What’s funny is that if Dallas weren’t playing to clinch the NFC East (and to edge closer to wrapping up the conference once seed), I might actually pick the Lions in this game, dismissive as I’ve been of Detroit these past three or four weeks. What? Surely I can’t believe the Lions are a better team than the Cowboys. Well, of course I don’t. That would be silly. It’s just that every team has to have a letdown game or two at some point in the season, and the Cowboys, having just vanquished the Green Bay Packers, seem to me to be due. And the thing is not every team can be New England and actually win their letdown games. And, hey, Detroit certainly has the ability to move the ball and score points through the air, which plays right to the Dallas D’s biggest weakness. That said, I think the ‘Boys can probably come into this game flat and still pull out a win, albeit a close one. That leaves two questions: Will Dallas come in flat? I have a hunch they will. And if they do and this game does become a battle, will the media claim Detroit, even in defeat, has created a blueprint for beating the Cowboys? I’m gonna guess they won’t. Dallas puts up a late field goal to make its margin of victory six.

Oakland (+10.5) at Green Bay
Hey, so the Raiders have won two straight. So that means everything’s gonna be OK in Oakland. And Lane Kiffin won’t be taking a powder at season’s end. And Robert Gallery isn’t really the worst high first-round draft choice ever (just the stupidest looking). And, and, and … Green Bay? Really? Ah, never mind. Packers by 17.

Tampa Bay (-3) at Houston
Once again, Jeff Garcia’s uncertain status makes it virtually impossible to pick a Bucs game with any confidence. But, you know, Tampa Bay won without Garcia last week (though one can hardly expect to see decision making as poor as what you got from the Saints at the end of that game every week). And Houston isn’t much better than New Orleans. And Garcia might play. So I guess I’ll take the Bucs straight up, though I’m pretty sure I’m gonna regret it, so I’ll hedge by taking the Texans with the points.

Carolina (+10.5) at Jacksonville
Ten and a half points, my ass. I’m pretty sure the Panthers are gonna win this game outright. Because, you know … um, it’s just that I … well … . OK, I’m just not gonna be able to sell this, am I? Jacksonville would have won four divisions in the NFL this season (you figure out which; it ought to be obvious). And their only real problem going forward is that their best-case scenario (since the six seed almost certainly isn’t beating Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round) is that they end up taking a trip to Foxborough to face the well-rested Patriots in the second week of the playoffs, and we all know how that game turns out. Focusing on the now, however, of course the Jags beat the Panthers. Probably by twice the spread.

NY Giants (+3) at Philadelphia
Going in to last week, I was pretty certain that a Giants win would prove something about the team and set New York on a path for the NFC five seed (which is to say the top wild card spot — Dallas having all but officially won the division). Coming out, I’m not so sure. The Giants didn’t look at all good in that win over the Bears. And I’m not sure they’ve got it in them to take it on the road and pull off a key victory over a division rival. Scratch that. Looking at the stats, I’m almost entirely certain the Giants don’t have what it takes to win this game. This in spite of the fact that with Minnesota breathing down their necks for the five seed (with the tie-breaker already decided in the Vikings’ favor) the Giants can scarcely afford to lose this game. But lose it they will. I mean, sure, the Eagles haven’t been terribly impressive this season. But when I look at how these teams stack up, I think Philly comes out on top on both sides of the ball. Well as they’ve run the ball this season, I think the Eagles look at the matchups, go pass-happy, build a nice lead and then challenge Eli Manning to play catch-up, knowing he’ll throw a few picks. I expect that strategy to pay off, and I expect to see the Eagles come out ahead by something like a touchdown.

San Diego (-1) at Tennessee
The bottom line here, in my estimation, is that San Diego simply has way, way, way too much at stake for losing even to be an option. A win in this game would all but guarantee the Chargers the AFC West crown (they’d have at least a two-game lead over Denver heading into the last three weeks of the season with two almost certain victories — next week at home vs. Detroit and week 17 in Oakland — on the schedule. And, should Pittsburgh lose to New England (which is, after all, the likely scenario), the Chargers with a win would find themselves just one game behind the Steelers in the race for the AFC three seed (which likely will mean the difference between hosting overachieving Cleveland or bruising Jacksonville in the first round of the playoffs) — with Pittsburgh facing both Jacksonville and their division rival, Baltimore, down the stretch. Lose, on the other hand, and not only does that shot at the three seed all but disappear, but, with Denver poised for a win over Kansas City, the Chargers would have the Broncos breathing down their neck in the division race. Does any of that mean the Chargers are sure to beat the Titans? Certainly not. That’s just what’s circling around this game for the 7-5 team with a realistic chance of making the playoffs. The reason the Chargers should win, probably by a field goal, is that they’re a slightly better team. If only just slightly.

Minnesota (-8.5) at San Francisco
Probably the last thing the Vikings needed in the middle of a major rebound that will probably take them from a 2-5 start to securing the six or possibly five seed in the NFC playoffs, was to lose depth at a key position by way of a suspension. Lucky for the Vikes, then, I suppose, that their schedule going forward isn’t exactly daunting. This game certainly isn’t hard to call. Minnesota by 10.

Arizona (+7) at Seattle
Seattle has a chance to effectively wrap up the division in this game. How much you wanna bet they blow it? I mean, correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t Ken Whisenhunt shown an ability to control the Seattle offense once or twice in the past? Arizona by a point.

Kansas City (+6.5) at Denver
I would be flat-out lying if I claimed to have half a clue what to make of either of these teams. Both are all over the place. And both have spent the entire season winning when I think they’re going to lose and losing when I think they’re going to win. I should just pick a tie, figuring I’m gonna take my lumps either way. But instead, I’ll take the opportunity to go with a cheap gag and predict that newly cleared Travis Henry will celebrate his off-field victory by lighting up (that’s the joke, get it?) Kansas City’s fairly weak run D. Broncos by seven.

Cleveland (-3.5) at NY Jets
Hey, Eric, you remember Bill’s pal Romeo, right? Yeah, he’s a good 10 times the coach you can ever hope to be. Browns by no fewer than nine points.

Pittsburgh (+10.5) at New England
Eventually, one would imagine, there will have to come a time when Patriots’ opponents will learn to shut the hell up and just play the game. Eventually. But not this week. The esteemed Mr. Smith’s confidence notwithstanding, the only way this game goes well for the Steelers is if the exhaustion from having played three consecutive night games catches up with the Pats in devastating fashion. The Patriots are, plain and simple, the better team in this matchup. Defensively, the teams are close (and the Steelers are statistically slightly better). Offensively, they’re on different planets. And I expect to see a Patriots team in this game that has caught up to the fact that it is essentially playing playoff-intensity games for the rest of the season — and that is ready to clinch a first-round bye (which the Patriots can do by winning here). I’ll be shocked if Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t throw at least two picks in this game, and I expect the seven points that result from one of them will account for about half the difference in the score.

Indianapolis (-9.5) at Baltimore
Do you suppose the Ravens will stop sulking about their loss to New England long enough to compete with Indy? Neither do I. Colts by 10 (which is unfortunate, because it’ll get Indianapolis fans saying, “Well, if the Patriots struggled against the Ravens and the Colts … blah, blah, blah,” and I’m just not in the mood for it.)

New Orleans (-4.5) at Atlanta
You know what? I almost don’t even care who wins this game. Neither of these teams is going anywhere. And the only reason I’m even going to watch is to root for Atlanta, because a Falcons win could give the Patriots (via San Francisco) a higher pick in the 2008 draft (to trade down out of). But the Falcons aren’t gonna win. So I’m not picking them. I’ll take New Orleans and give the points and just be happy to be happy if I’m wrong.

Categories: Uncategorized Tags:
Comments are closed.