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Week Sixteen Picks

December 20th, 2007

Looking for a safe bet? Hold on to your money until the playoffs. Because, well, take a look. You’ll see road teams giving big points. You’ll see lots of teams with nothing to play for that may or may not show up, sometimes facing other teams with nothing to play for that may or may not show up. And if you know how to interpret that data, you’ll see that this week is a giant disaster waiting to happen. So why let it happen to you? Hold off until all the games count for all the teams playing. Meanwhile, here’s what not to expect.

Pittsburgh (-8.5) at St. Louis
I won’t be at all surprised if the Steelers manage to drop a game and fall out of the NFC North championship and into a wild card spot before all is said and done. But if Pittsburgh is gonna lose a game, it’ll be next week when they travel to Baltimore (a second consecutive road game for a team that’s 2-4 away from home this season, and a matchup with a divisional opponent, to boot). They’re not losing to St. Louis. I mean, we’re talking about a Rams team with an offense that can’t score and a defense that can’t stop opponents from scoring. It’s not hard to guess what happens when a team this bad faces a good team with something to play for. Steelers by two touchdowns.

Dallas (-11) at Carolina
Much like the Steelers, the Cowboys are a team that might just drop one of its two remaining games (both on the road) and move back a step in its conference’s playoff seedings (in this case falling from one to two in the NFC post-season). Also much like the Steelers, however, the Cowboys won’t be taking that loss this week. (If it comes, it’ll come next weekend in Washington.) I don’t care if Tony Romo has to throw lefty. All that might mean is that the Cowboys only win by three (you know, like maybe by a score of 3-0). I’m gonna hedge based on Romo’s condition and look for the Panthers to cover. But that’s as far as I’m willing to go. Dallas by seven.

NY Giants (-3) at Buffalo
I’ve got a weird feeling the Giants are gonna end up backing into the playoffs. That is, I think they’re making the post season, but I think they may get there not by winning this game (or, you know, next week against New England), but by virtue of Washington losing to Minnesota this week and New Orleans finding a way to lose to Philadelphia this weekend or at Chicago next. Yeah, I know the Bills have nothing but pride remaining to play for, but I’m not sure that won’t be enough. The Bills D gives up more yards per game than the Giants defense, but only allows half a point more per game. And given the way the Giants offense has played recently (and particularly last week) I’m not sure the statistical differences on that side of the ball are as meaningful as they might seem. One statistical difference I think will matter a lot is giveaway/takeaway. The Giants are at -7 on the season, mostly because Eli Manning keeps throwing picks. The Bills are +8, mostly because they pick off a lot of balls. That’s killer. Bills by three.

Green Bay (-9) at Chicago
The Packers may be locked into a first round bye, but they’ve also gotta be keenly aware of the fact that two wins (here and next week against the visiting Detroit Lions) coupled with a Dallas loss (which may yet happen in week 17) gives them the conference one seed and the right to host the NFC Championship game, which would be huge. The Bears, meanwhile, are operating on a short week and coming off yet another demonstration of their inability to finish games. Green Bay wins this game by 17.

Cleveland (-2.5) at Cincinnati
A win here and the Browns make the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and earn a chance (albeit an outside chance) to take a division championship for the first time since 1989. A loss here and the Bengals slip to 5-10 on the season, get embarrassed by their division rivals, and fall further into chaos. Since the implications (for both teams) of a Cleveland victory appeal to me, that’s what I’m rooting for. Since Cleveland has a slightly better offense, that’s what I’m expecting. And since neither team has so much as the illusion of a pro football defense, I’m betting the over. Browns by four.

Kansas City (+5) at Detroit
You know what might be a good thing for the folks in Kansas City to get over? The idea that Herm Edwards will ever be a good NFL head coach. He isn’t. Never has been. The Lions snap their six-game skid, just in time for it not to matter to anyone. The Lions and their awful defense aren’t winning by five, however. Not even over the Chiefs. Three, maybe, but not five.

Houston (+7.5) at Indianapolis
Tony Dungy says his starters are gonna play. That, and having just had the fear of God put in them by the 4-8 (at the time) Oakland Raiders ought to get the job done. That and, you know, hosting a solidly sub-par division rival. Colts by 10.

Oakland (+13) at Jacksonville
OK, I think we’ve been over some of this before. The Raiders can’t stop the run. They give up almost 144 yards per game (and worse still 4.7 per carry, which is just stunningly awful) and have surrendered a league-high 21 rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars offense averages almost 150 yards a game on the ground (and 4.4 a carry) and has scored 15 rushing touchdowns, which is tied for third most in the league. So you tell me how this game comes out. Jacksonville by two touchdowns minimum.

Philadelphia (+3) at New Orleans
Just as they did in facing the Patriots a few weeks back and the Cowboys last weekend, I expect the Eagles to come out fired up and to play 60 minutes of bruising football against the Saints. That’s gonna present problems for New Orleans, which has neither the defensive strength to hold the Philly offense in check for four quarters nor the offensive wherewithal to finish a tough game (firepower, New Orleans has; willpower, not so much) so I’m not expecting a close loss like the one in New England or a hard-won victory like the one in Dallas. I’m looking for Philadelphia to take control by about five minutes into the fourth quarter and win this game fairly handily. Maybe by more than a touchdown. (And, perhaps for the first time ever, an Eagles victory will make Giants fans happy.)

Atlanta (+10) at Arizona
If nothing else, the people of Atlanta this week learned what football fans in New England, New Jersey and Dallas have known for some time (and that the folks in Miami will learn soon enough: Bill Parcells is a giant douchebag. So, you know, that’s something, I guess. Cardinals by 13.

Tampa Bay (-7) at San Francisco
I don’t know about anyone else, but I think I’m gonna really enjoy seeing Jeff Garcia make the 49ers pay for kicking him to the curb a few years back to placate that insufferable fuckwad TO

Miami (+22.5) at New England
According to the Pro Bowl selections, the only truly impressive pro football player in the state of Florida lines up not for the playoffs-bound 10-4 Jacksonville Jaguars or 9-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Miami Dolphins, who are 1-13 and all but officially on the clock with the first pick in the 2008 NFL draft (they’ll be officially on the clock as soon as they lose this game). So, you know, that’s something for the Patriots to worry about. But I’m pretty sure the Pats know they need to account for Taylor (mostly because I heard Bill Belichick say precisely that in a radio interview on Monday). The Pats have also gotta know that there’s very little else they have to account for in playing a banged up team that, after last week, has absolutely nothing left to play for. (Don’t talk to me about defending the honor of the 1972 Dolphins. Most of these kids weren’t even born when that team was playing.) New England’s margin of victory will have at least something to do with the weather conditions in Foxborough Sunday afternoon. Right now, the forecast is for light rain, so I’m predicting a 28-point differential.

NY Jets (+9) at Tennessee
I confess: I’m rooting for the Jets for the remainder of the season. Why? Well, to begin with, I’d like to see New York slide down a bit in the draft order. More important, thought, I’d like to see Jets fans have some cause for hope at the end of the season. That way, there will be something for the Patriots to dash next year. That would be nice. Thing is, I can root all day and the Jets still aren’t winning this game. They won’t lose by nine points, mind you, but they won’t win either.

Baltimore (+10) at Seattle
Unlike in the AFC, where there’s a concrete reason to want the three seed rather than the four (see my pick on the Monday night game below), it’s tough to tell right now whether Seattle and Tampa Bay should care about whether they end up seeded third or fourth in the NFC. That’s because there’s no saying for sure what’s awaiting the team that lands in each spot. One of them is likely gonna face the very dangerous Vikings in the wild card round while the other gets the limping Giants. But we might no know which is which until very late on the last day of the season (Minnesota finishes with a late-afternoon game at Denver). Nor is there any knowing right now which seed gives you a trip to Green Bay and which to Dallas for the divisional round should you prevail in week one. So all you can really do is play to win and hope for the best. And there ends my ability to write around this game. Now I have no choice but to reveal that I have absolutely nothing to say about this matchup. Nothing. I just can’t get worked up about either team. Let’s say the Seahawks win by nine, because, hell, why not?

Washington (+6.5) at Minnesota
The Redskins were able to keep their slip playoff hopes alive by beating one of the two leading NFC wild card contenders last Sunday night. The question now is, can the Skins actually pull themselves into the hunt for real with a road win over the red-hot Vikings? The answer: probably not. Washington’s defense is probably good enough to slow Minnesota’s offense down a bit, but they’re not gonna keep the Vikings off the board all night. Minnesota’s D vs. the Washington O, on the other hand, may prove another matter entirely. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see the Redskins held to three or six points in this game. And with that in mind, I’m thinking a touchdown and half a PAT isn’t too much to give up.

Denver (+8) at San Diego
If you’re the Chargers, you really, really, really want to be the three seed in the AFC playoffs. Not only is it the different between traveling to Indianapolis or New England in the divisional round (if you make it that far), but it’s the difference between hosting Cleveland (or maybe Pittsburgh) or Jacksonville in the wild card round. And you simply do not want to face the prospect of having to battle through the Jaguars in week one only (if you survive) to have to turn around and travel across the country to face a well-rested Patriots team in week two. That’s a recipe for a crushing defeat. Add in the fact that there’s a division rivalry at work here, and the fact that Denver’s run defense is almost non-existent, and you get a San Diego victory wrapped up before Santa starts warming up the sleigh. Chargers by 17. And Merry Christmas.

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