Week Ten Picks
Turnovers. I’m expecting turnovers to tell the story in week 10. Three of four of these games will be decided by one or more key turnovers. And, yeah, I know that’s frequently the case, so I’m hardly going far out on a limb here. But it’s not like that. It’s like this: I’m saying turnovers will be the story of the week, the thing that leads SportsCenter and Football Night in America. That’s what I’m looking for. Of course, I’m pretty much always wrong. Here’s the rest of what you shouldn’t expect.
Denver (+3) at Cleveland
So let’s say you’ve got an offense that puts up close to 24 points a game. And let’s say you’re facing a team with a defense that’s so-so on it’s best days and an offense that’s set to be led by a guy making his first NFL start. And let’s say you’re somehow still a three-point underdog going into that game. What does that mean? It means your defense really, really, really sucks. Browns by a point.
New Orleans (+1) at Atlanta
The over/under on this game is 50. Bet the over. And bet it big. As for a winner, well, if you think the Saints can hold on to the ball, you might wanna take ’em. If, like me, you’re pretty sure they can’t, go with the Falcons. I like Atlanta to win by three.
Tennessee (-3) at Chicago
The Titans have to lose a game sooner or later and this non-conference road game seems as likely a spot for it as any. But I’m not picking it that way. Not with Chicago’s undecided quarterback situation. Besides, it seems fairly clear to me that if I just keep picking the Titans every week I’m guaranteed to be right way more often than I’m wrong. And I’ll take those odds every time. Tennessee wins 17-9.
Jacksonville (-7) at Detroit
Records notwithstanding, the Raiders have probably displaced the Lions from their long-held position of league’s worst/most dysfunctional team at this point. It remains a fact, however, that if you can’t get back on track in a game against Detroit, you probably can’t get back on track at all. Forget, if only for a week, the questions about team chemistry and all the other distractions; the Jags win this one by 10.
Baltimore (-1) at Houston
Quarterback shmarterback (OK, it’s kind of a big deal, but still), this one boils down to defense (and maybe to turnovers). The Ravens have a D; the Texans don’t. (Also, the Ravens can’t hold on to the ball, but the Texan can’t hold onto the ball even more.) Baltimore by four.
Seattle (+9) at Miami
The Seahawks were hoping to have Matt Hasselbeck back in the starting lineup this week. And apparently he’s healthy enough to play, but he’s missing the game to attend services for his sister-in-law whose head finally exploded late Tuesday night. Tragic. (Though fortunately no one else was harmed since Elisabeth’s head was, in fact, entirely empty.) I still don’t believe in the Dolphins, so I’m only expecting them to win by seven.
Green Bay (+2.5) at Minnesota
Mark my words: This game turns on a Green Bay pick six. Packers by four.
Buffalo (+4) at New England
The Bills, who haven’t beaten the Patriots since the opening game of the 2003 season (“Let me be very clear about this: They hate their coach”), have exactly one player they can usually count on to perform well against New England and he ain’t playing. Pats by a touchdown.
St. Louis (+8) at NY Jets
Steven Jackson’s on-again, off-again thigh injury is on again. That spells doom for a Rams team that need to run in order to win and that was already gonna have trouble moving the ball on the ground against the Jets. New Jersey by 10.
Carolina (-9) at Oakland
Call me a cockeyed optimist, but I’m pretty sure this shaking up the roster business is pretty much guaranteed to solve all of Oakland’s problems. Or, you know, the few problems that are still lingering after the Raiders took care of most of their issues last month by firing yet another coach. Panthers by 14? 21? 28? (I don’t know how many points Carolina’s gonna win by, but I’m pretty sure it’ll be more than nine.)
Indianapolis (+3) at Pittsburgh
I don’t see Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation as a major determining factor in this game. Because I’ve just seen nothing that would lead me to believe that the Colts offense can hope to be effective against the Steelers D. Pittsburgh by six.
Kansas City (+15) at San Diego
In which the Chargers officially begin backing into an AFC West championship. Wahoo! San Diego by some number of points that either will or will not exceed 15. (I’ll go with will since San Diego’s at home and I’m not actually putting money on the line. You wanna bet this mess, you figure it out for yourself.)
NY Giants (+3) at Philadelphia
The one thing I can predict about this game with relative certainty is that it’s gonna be a ton of fun to watch. Yeah, the Eagles have dropped a couple more games than the Giants (and consequently need a win here to have any real hope in the division), but these teams are incredibly evenly matched. Both play well on both sides of the ball. Both come in with a giveaway/takeaway differential of +6 (which ties them with Chicago for best in the NFC and fourth best in the league). And both are looking to build on a three-game win streak. It’s tempting to go with the home team, which also happens to be the team that needs a win more. But I’m not doing that. I’m going with the squad with the balanced offense. That’s the Giants. I’m looking for New Jersey to take this one by a field goal.
San Francisco (+10) at Arizona
What part of his anatomy will Mike Singletary be showing his players this week? For what it’s worth, Mike, I’d go for something below the knees. That way, the guys won’t have to peel themselves off the turf to get a look. Cards by 14.
