Week Twelve Picks
Murder. That’s what this week is murder. In fact, don’t even bother reading my picks. I’m just winging it. I mean, even more than usual.
Cincinnati (+11) at Pittsburgh
OK, Cleveland-Buffalo on a Monday night, I get. And not just because it turned out to be a fun game to watch. The fact of the matter is that back when the 2008 schedule was being put together it looked like the two teams in that game were headed for exciting seasons. It could have been more than a fun game; it could have been meaningful. But this mess? Seriously, did anyone at any point not know Cincinnati was gonna be awful this season? Or, let me put it this way: Was there enough evidence that the Bengals might possibly be in contention this late in the season to put this game into a night that you’re trying to use to build your house network? Of course not. So what you end up with is a game that even those of us who get the NFL Network won’t be paying much attention to (I rarely miss a play of any half decent game, but even I’ll be back and forth between this and Celtics-Pistons, which I’m guessing is gonna get more and more of my attention as the evening wears on). But who knows? Maybe we’re headed for yet another freaky finish (you know, like this one or this one — or the one from Monday night). I’m kinda thinking not, though. In fact, I’m kinda thinking the Steelers actually cover this time around. Pittsburgh by 14. (I also like the Celtics, but I’m sure not giving seven in that game. Four maybe. And in the late game I’m looking for the Suns to pull off the upset at home.)
Carolina (+1) at Atlanta
If you go by the “team that needs it more” theory, Atlanta owns this game. Not only are the Falcons are coming off a tough loss in a game they should have won (look at the stats on that game; if you didn’t know the score, you’d guess Atlanta had beaten Denver handily), but a loss here will effectively end their hopes of contending in the NFC South and make even a wild card playoff berth a remote possibility. As I’ve said before, I don’t really buy into that theory, which is too bad, because it would make it a lot easier to get my head around this game. These teams are incredibly evenly matched. The Falcons tend to put up more points, and to run the ball somewhat more effectively (though not by so great a margin as one might expect). The Panthers tend to give up fewer. Both teams have giveaway/takeaway differentials of +3. It’s hard to identify the one factor that’s gonna decide this thing. But if I’m pressed (which I am), I’m gonna guess that Carolina’s ability to bring pressure on the quarterback may prove to be the point on which the game turns. I know Matt Ryan has exceeded all reasonable expectations for any rookie quarterback, but I suspect that if this game comes down to one or two big plays, he’s gonna have nearly as difficult a time making them in the face of Carolina’s pass rush as he did back in week four. That, to me, spells a Carolina victory. I don’t see the Panthers winning by 15 again (probably more like three or four), but I see them winning just the same.
Philadelphia (+1) at Baltimore
Yes, Donovan there are ties in the NFL. But not this week. Just losses (for the Eagles, I mean). And sacks. Lots of them. Ravens by four.
Houston (+3) at Cleveland
Did you know that Cleveland’s giveaway/takeaway differential is +8. Or that Houston’s is -13. I don’t care that the Texans ostensibly do everything else better than the Browns. Nor that Cleveland’s playing on short rest. Nor that Brady Quinn has a boo-boo. If you consistently give your opponent a short field and you consistently fail to finish drives, you lose games. Simple as that. Browns by a field goal (and not a terribly long one this time).
San Francisco (+10.5) at Dallas
In which the Cowboys maintain the illusion that they’re back in the playoff hunt. Dallas by 13.
Tampa Bay (-9) at Detroit
The Lions take yet another step along the path to 0-16. How do these guys manage to keep showing up for work? (Oh, right, it’s the millions and millions of dollars.) Bucs by two touchdowns.
Minnesota (+2.5) at Jacksonville
In some parallel universe, this is a matchup between two exciting, division-leading teams. In this one, it’s just a battle for the right to continue pretending you’ve got a shot at playing in January. Vikings by two.
Buffalo (-3) at Kansas City
Buffalo’s season ended Monday night. Kansas City’s season ended before it began. If the Bills can hold on to the ball, they might be able to salvage a tiny shred of their dignity here. But they haven’t held onto it much yet. And the Chiefs are very good at taking the ball away. So unless Buffalo’s special teams score twice, I’m expecting the Bills losing streak to extend to five games. Chiefs by one.
New England (+1.5) at Miami
I don’t know. It seems like every week, the football gods find a new way to try to tell the Patriots this just isn’t their season. This week, it’s in the news that list of injured starters now includes Richard Seymour, who’s been missing practice with some kind of toe injury. And every week the Patriots find a way to tell the football gods to go fuck themselves. Last week, though it happened in a fairly painful loss, they did it by shifting their offense into high gear. They’re gonna need more of the same, and a win this time around, if they’re to have any hope of continuing to thwart the will of those cruel, cruel deities. That won’t be easy. The Dolphins are playing better football than anyone expected them to. And, in fact, it may be the will of the gods that this is Miami’s year. We’ll find out this weekend, because the winner of this game likely moves into a tie with the Jets for first place in the AFC East, while the loser probably needs to start preparing for the draft. I’m looking for the Patriots to keep their season alive for another week, but I have to admit the pick has little to do with football (there are football reasons to like the Pats, but there are also football reasons to like the Fins) and a lot to do with me still not quite buying the Dolphins remaining at least somewhat confident in the Patriots’ ability at least to push the limits of fate. It’s not much to go on, is it? Thing is, it’s what I’ve got. New England by three.
Chicago (-9) at St. Louis
I set out briefly to find out the latest on Steven Jackson’s injury situation. And then I realized it doesn’t matter. One way or the other, the Bears are winning and the Rams are covering.
NY Jets (+5.5) at Tennessee
I’ve got a weird feeling the Jets may win this game. Not because I think New Jersey’s good, but because a) there’s that thing with the Patriots and the football gods (see above); b) the Titans have to lose some time; and c) it’s always (usually) right around the time people start talking about a team maybe going undefeated that said team drops one. But I’m not picking a Jets win. To begin with, hunches are for shit. And more to the point, my strategy remains to pick Tennessee every week and figure I’ve got at least a 15-1 chance of being right. Titans by a touchdown.
Oakland (+10) at Denver
Holy crap. It appears San Diego may yet prove bad enough for Denver to capture the booby prize that is the 2008 AFC West title. I’m sure that’s cause for celebration somewhere. Broncos by nine.
NY Giants (-3) at Arizona
On paper, this looks like an exciting matchup between division leading teams. In reality, the Cardinals are so hopelessly outmatched by the juggernaut Giants that it’s hard for me to imagine the game will be competitive much past midway through the third. I expect to see New Jersey run the ball down Arizona’s throats all day long, add a few long passes to the mix and walk away with a virtual lock on a first-round playoff bye and the inside track to the NFC one seed. Giants by two touchdowns.
Washington (-3) at Seattle
Traveling across the country is never easy, but the Native Americans did take week eleven off, so they ought to be fairly well rested. Washington by four.
Indianapolis (+3) at San Diego
This is a weird matchup. Consider this: The Chargers need a win to remain in contention for a division title; the Colts need a win to remain in contention for a wild card spot. The Chargers are out of wild card contention. The Colts are out of division title contention. The Chargers come in 4-6. The Colts come in 6-4. And somehow these are the same teams that took part in an epic AFC divisional playoff battle 10 months ago. I expect to see the improving LaDainian Tomlinson play just well enough to power San Diego to victory. But truth be told, I’ll be happy as long as one of these teams loses. Chargers by three.
Green Bay (+2.5) at New Orleans
Anyone for offense? Don’t bet the outcome. Just bet the over. The Packers win by eight, seven of which come on an interception returned for a touchdown in the final two minutes.
