Week Fourteen Picks
I’m taking some upsets this week. Most are hardly upsets at all. But at least one is the real deal. So, you know, the favorites should win all of those games. (And the underdogs will take a few others.) All of which is to say here’s what not to expect.
Pittsburgh (-10) at Cleveland
Yeah, I know the Steelers have lost four straight. And, yeah, I know two of those losses have been to the Chiefs and the (holy crap!) Raiders, but they can’t lose to the Browns. Right? I mean, that would just be way too much. Right? I’m gonna think that until I have a reason not to. Pittsburgh by nine.
New Orleans (-10) at Atlanta
If you go with the which team needs it more philosophy of picking football games, you’ve gotta like the Falcons here. Because, look, up until a week ago, the Saints, unlike the Colts, actually had a reason to shoot for 16-0; the Vikings were just a short step behind them in the contest for the NFC one seed. Now, though, New Orleans has home field all but locked up. They can afford to drop one. Atlanta, meanwhile, is about a loss away from having no shot at the post season. So, yeah, if you pick ’em like that, you lean toward the Falcons. Or you might, if only the Falcons had anything remotely resembling a healthy offense, which they don’t.The Saints engage the cruise control early in the second half and still manage to cover and then some.
Carolina (+13.5) at New England
This is it. This is either the game where the Patriots start a four-game winning streak that has the “experts” who have written them off scratching their heads as January rolls around or the game where it becomes clear that unsettled issues (which will get settled quick in the off-season, especially if the looming uncapped year renders such typical concerns as cap hit immaterial), on-field shortcomings, and off-field … well, you know, lives are conspiring to make 2009 the team’s most purely frustrating season since 2002. (No, I’m not counting the 2008 season, which ended after less than a quarter.) The Patriots don’t need a win here. They need a big, big win. A “those mean old Patriots are running up the score” win. A win in which Brady is still throwing deep to Moss two thirds of the way through he fourth quarter even though the team is ahead by 23. I expect them to get just that. Patriots 45-17.
Buffalo (pick ’em) at Kansas City
This could easily be the shortest game of the season. Neither defense has any ability whatsoever to stop the run, which should keep the ball on the ground and the game clock running. And, given the fact that neither the teams nor their fans have any reason to want to prolong the 2009 season, that might not be a terrible thing. The Bills, who are slightly less awful on both sides of the ball, should come out ahead, maybe by a point.
NY Jets (-3) at Tampa Bay
Even with your franchise in a tailspin (yet again) and your “Sanchize” on the bench, there’s no losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Jets keep their post-season hopes alive for another week with a freebie, 19-13.
Miami (+3) at Jacksonville
The Dolphins managed to puff within a game in the division with their comeback victory over the Patriots a week ago. That means that if Miami can win out, all they’ll need to capture a second-straight AFC East title is one more misstep by New England. Unfortunately for Miami, winning out isn’t gonna be easy. They follow this game with a trip to Tennessee. And they finish the season with a visit from Pittsburgh. Neither of these teams has much to offer by way of pass defense. And since Jacksonville’s offense is in a somewhat better position than Miami to take advantage of that situation, I’m taking the Jags to win. But not by much. It’s a push with the points.
Cincinnati (+6.5) at Minnesota
I’ve gotta say, six and a half points seems rather excessive to me. Yeah, the Vikings are getting a lot of attention (and rightly so) this season. But, hell, they’re only a game better than the Bengals, and they’re a game better in the NFC, which is maybe even, maybe a game worse when you adjust for competitive imbalance. And here’s the big thing: The Bengals don’t just let you beat them on the ground. You absolutely have to earn your wins through the air with them. And they don’t exactly come easy there. That’s the kind of situation that has exposed Brett Favre in the past, and I’m not certain we won’t see more of that in this match (especially after Sunday night, because I promise you Cincinnati’s D is a good bit tougher than Arizona’s). Does that mean I’m anticipating a second-straight loss for the Vikings? Not at all. Minnesota’s at home. Minnesota’s not in a position to give away games (a loss would, at least on paper, put the two seed in jeopardy). And Minnesota, as you might have heard, has a pretty impressive defense itself. So, yeah, I’m taking the Vikings. But I’m not giving anything close to six and a half.
Detroit (+13) at Baltimore
The Ravens can still squeeze into the playoffs if they just win their own games and get a little bit of help from either Indianapolis or New England (Jacksonville’s opponents in weeks 15 and 16). That ain’t a terrible position to be in. Baltimore by 17.
Green Bay (-3) at Chicago
The Bears can’t run. The Bears can’t stop the run. And the Bears can’t hold on to the ball. The Packers can do all three. That adds up to a Green Bay win. By six.
Seattle (+6) at Houston
One of these teams is gonna see another frustrating season come to its all-but-official end this weekend. I’m gonna guess it’ll be the road team. Texans by a touchdown.
Denver (+7) at Indianapolis
You know what? I’m taking the Broncos. Here’s why: The Colts have, for all intents and purposes, locked up the AFC one seed. The Colts are going to drop a game at some point (though it’s arguably more likely to come in week 16 or 17 with most of their starters sitting out chunks of the second half). And the Broncos have developed a habit this season of beating good teams. Also, I have a weird hunch. Denver by a point.
Washington (-1) at Oakland
Ugh (ly). This would be easier if Oakland weren’t coming off a nice win. Then I’d just go ahead and pick the home team, even though the visiting squad is arguably a bit less awful. But that would mean picking the Raiders to win their second straight, which just seems obscenely unlikely. So, again, I say ugh. I’m holding my breath and taking Oakland.
St. Louis (+13) at Tennessee
The too little too late factor probably caught up with Tennessee last weekend. Tennessee still has a chance to be a factor in the post-season, but it will be as a spoiler – maybe by killing Miami’s hopes next weekend, maybe by denying San Diego the two seed in week 16, maybe both – rather than as a competitor. None of that has anything to do with this game, however. Here it’s the Titans by 17.
San Diego (+3) at Dallas
You know, on paper this is a great game. Each squad has a narrow lead in its division. Both need a win. And the edge shifts depending on which side of the ball you’re looking at. In reality, I’m not so sure. The Chargers are, true to form, heating up as the season comes to a close. The Cowboys appeared last weekend (also true to form) to be cooling down in December. If those trends hold true, and/or if Dallas doesn’t figure out how to protect the football, this isn’t gonna be much of a game at all. I’m looking for the Chargers to win it straight up.
Philadelphia (+1) at NY Giants
This is what Sunday night football should be all about. If I’m right about the Chargers beating Dallas, this game is for first place in the NFC East. That’s kinda shocking, considering how banged up both of these teams are right now. I’m tempted to take the Giants, since they’re at home and since they need it more. And for the most part the stats say it’s a coin toss, which invariably favors the home team. But the fact that the Eagles come in with a giveaways/takeaway differential of plus-12 while the Giants are at minus-1 gives me pause. And when I unpause, I settle on the Eagles.
Arizona (-3) at San Francisco
In which the Cardinals, playing in prime time for the second consecutive week, sew up the NFC West and get the experts talking about another run to the Super Bowl. Arizona by nine.
