Week Seventeen Picks
The smart money this weekend stays in your pocket. I mean, that’s pretty much the case always, but it’s particularly true in a week of football that involves so many unknowables. Which teams are gonna play to win? Which opponents will be able to take advantage of the post-season-bound squads that don’t show up? What happens when you play at four and your last chance to make the playoffs is erased in a one o’clock game somewhere else? And even when you get to games like Philadelphia-Dallas, all you can say with confidence is that it’s gonna be a slugfest; there’s no saying for sure who’s gonna be left standing at the bell. So, you know, if you have to bet, take a look at a game like that and stick with the over-under. Otherwise, hold on to your dough for next weekend, when things get truly interesting again. Here’s what not to expect.
San Francisco (-7) at St. Louis
Ah, yes, it’s the who cares bowl. San Francisco by a touchdown.
Indianapolis (+7) at Buffalo
You know what you are if you pay money to sit in the 20-degree chill to watch the Bills scrimmage with Indy’s backups? OK, I was gonna go with “diehard,” but, yeah, sure, that too. If the Jets could “beat” the Colts by two touchdowns in a game in which the Indy starters at least thought they were playing for something meaningful while they were on the field, I’ve gotta think the Bills can win by 10 at home with nothing whatsoever on the line.
Chicago (-3) at Detroit
The thing about noting that if the Bears team that beat the Vikings on Monday night shows up, they should be able to handle the Lions with relative ease is that it brings up the point that if the Bears team from Monday night had shown up consistently through the season, they’d probably be resting starters in preparation for the playoffs this week. Still, Chicago wins by six for the second straight week (this time finishing in regulation).
NY Giants (+8.5) at Minnesota
The Vikings are playing not just for the two seed but for the chance to get back on track with the playoffs looming. The Giants, who got a humiliating early start to their off-season last weekend, should make it pretty easy. Minnesota by 10.
Jacksonville (+2.5) at Cleveland
This would be an easy game to pick if the Browns defense had the slightest ability to stop the run or the Browns offense the slightest ability to hold on to the damned ball. Jacksonville is playing its second consecutive road game. And one would imagine the Jags spirits are broken after the crushing defeat in Foxborough that ended their playoff hopes. The Browns, meanwhile, are riding a three-game winning streak. This game probably means something to Cleveland whereas it can’t possibly mean a damned thing to Jacksonville. So, yeah, if the Browns didn’t stink outright, I’d take them without reservation. I’m still taking them, to win and cover, but I’m doing it with serious reservations. Just so I’m on the record with that.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami
OK LaMarr. If that’s what you need to think, that’s fine. Me, I have a hard time believing anyone in the NFL is afraid of the big, bad squad that in recent memory has found ways to lose to such juggernauts as Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland. But that’s just me. I’m sure, though, that the Steelers will manage to end their season on a bit of an up note with a win over the foundering Dolphins. So that’ll be a nice thing for LaMarr and his teammates to reflect on as the off-season begins. Pittsburgh wins and covers.
New Orleans (+7) at Carolina
Conventional wisdom says the Saints, with nothing to play for, will rest starters and take a loss. I’m not so sure. I think if I were Sean Payton I’d have serious misgivings about taking my formerly red hot team into the post-season on a three-game losing streak. Especially when beating the Panthers could only require me to get three quarters out of my starting offense (and, let’s be honest, the starting D could use a full game to tune up). I think Payton, who can rest his whole damned team next weekend, plays to win. And I think it pays off. New Orleans by three.
New England (+7.5) at Houston
The mere fact that Bill Belichick won’t say he’s not planning to rest starters makes me feel pretty certain he’s planning to rest starters. I’m sure we’ll see everyone who’s healthy enough to play spend some time on the field, but I’d be shocked to see guys who are dealing with ongoing injuries put in a full game. So I’ll take the Texans, who’ll be trying to keep their playoff hopes alive, to win it straight up, though I’ll hedge a bit by looking for the Pats to keep it closer than seven and half.
Atlanta (-1.5) at Tampa Bay
Yes, I know the Bucs beat the Saints, but is anyone outside of Tampa looking at that as anything other than a colossal fluke? I know I’m not. Falcons by a touchdown.
Philadelphia (+3) at Dallas
You know what? Go ahead and set aside the crazy variety of seeding possibilities because all that really matters is that this is the NFC East title game. That’s it. These two teams are going to beat the living bejesus out of each other not for a week off or a home game, but because they’re division rivals and the team that wins is the cock of the walk (puts its pants on just like all the other football teams: one leg at a time; except once its pants are on it wins division titles). So then the question is, do you like the suddenly hot home team or the increasingly impressive division-leading visitor? I’m not sure what the right answer is. But I do know these two things: The Eagles are better than the Cowboys in virtually every aspect of the game; and I’ve been calling Philly the most dangerous team in the NFC for a few weeks and it’s probably in my best interest (in the absence of significant indications to the contrary) that I put my money where my mouth has been. So I’ll take the Eagles to win this thing outright.
Washington (+3.5) at San Diego
I’m actually fairly confident that San Diego’s backups can beat Washington’s starters. How sad is that? Chargers by three.
Green Bay (+3) at Arizona
Look, I don’t think, I know that the Packers are the better team in this match. And if these two teams end up meeting in the same stadium a week from now, or two weeks from now, I will take the Packers with confidence. Here, though, in this game, what I see is an Arizona team playing at home with a shot at the two seed if it wins and a good chance of landing at four if it loses and a Green Bay team that’s gonna be the five or six seed no matter what happens and that has a lot of reasons to hold back on showing the Cards everything it’s got. I like Arizona in that scenario. By a point.
Kansas City (+13) at Denver
The Broncos need help to make the post-season, and I’m not sure they’re gonna get it. But I’m fairly confident they’ll at least do their part this time out. Denver by 10.
Baltimore (-10) at Oakland
The Ravens’ situation is simple: Win and they’re in the playoffs (as the five or six seed, depending on what happens with the Jets and Bengals Sunday night); lose and their season ends. That should be more than enough motivation to get them by the horrendous Raiders. Baltimore by 13.
Tennessee (-4) at Seattle
In the end, the 2009 Titans were mostly about wasted potential. They’ll set the stage for high expectations in 2010 with a big win in the season finale. Tennessee by 14.
Cincinnati (+10) at NY Jets
Marvin Lewis says his team is gonna go all-out to win this largely meaningless game. I’ll believe it when I see it. Like the oddsmakers, I’m looking for the Bengals to give the Jets a free pass to the post-season. New Jersey closes Giants Stadium with a 10-point victory. (And the idiot Jets fans start talking Super Bowl again. Hooray!)
