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Week Four Picks

October 1st, 2010

This week’s games fall into two categories: Not even worth thinking about and absolute murder. Or so it seems to me. Which probably means the ones that seem easy are going the other way and the ones that seem hard are … um, probably going the other way (but at least I won’t be shocked by my failures in those cases). Here’s what not to expect.

NY Jets (-5) at Buffalo
I typically look at a second-straight road game as a tough one for a team to win (particularly when it follows a tough divisional game.) And it’s only more difficult when that second road game is against a divisional opponent. But let’s be honest here: The Bills aren’t beating anybody. Frat Boys by a touchdown.

Denver (+6.5) at Tennessee
The Broncos appear to be even more of a mess than I previously thought. In fact, maybe the only positive thing you can say about Denver to date is that it appears their run defense isn’t awful. The agent of change awaits in Tennessee. Titans by nine.

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland
Ooh, this game is just full of intrigue. I mean, do you think it will be Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace who throws three picks? Bengals by 14.

Carolina (+13.5) at New Orleans
Yes, I’m quite sure that what Jimmy Clausen needs to get over his rough debut outing is a matchup with the angry defending champions. That should work out well. Saints by 17.

Baltimore (+1.5) at Pittsburgh
I may be a fool, but I’m just not buying into the Charlie Batch-led Steelers against the kind of D the Ravens bring to the field. Because I just can’t. Ravens by a point.

San Francisco (+6.5) at Atlanta
The only way the Niners have a chance here is if the Falcons, fresh off a huge divisional win, have a letdown game. It’s not like it never happens, so, sure, it’s possible. But I’m not betting on it. Atlanta may stumble a bit, but they’ll come out ahead by three or four.

Seattle (-1) at St. Louis
Good God, do I not even want to think about this game. Neither of these teams seems particularly likely to win. But I suppose one of them has to lose. Since the Rams are at home, and since the Seahawks are coming off a somewhat unlikely victory (which to my mind points the Seattle rollercoaster downward), I’ll go with St. Louis. Let’s say they win it by three.

Detroit (+14.5) at Green Bay
What more Green Bay ask in a short week coming off an embarrassing loss than this little gift of a divisional matchup? Packers by 20.

Houston (-3.5) at Oakland
What’s the over/under on field goals missed by Sebastian Janikowski? The Texans have a deplorable pass defense. And they may not have their best wideout. But they should still have enough offense to overcome the Raiders. Houston by a field goal (made or missed).

Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars have no offense and one of the league’s worst pass Ds. How do you figure that’s working out for them here? Me, I’m figuring they get a bit of a break with the Colts playing on the road for a second straight week. So, you know, let’s say Indy by a mere 10 points.

Washington (+6) at Philadelphia
I’d love to see Donovan McNabb go into Philadelphia and make the Eagles regret trading him to a division rival. But for that to happen, he’d need to have someone to throw the ball to. Eagles by a touchdown.

Arizona (+8) at San Diego
The Chargers continue to look pretty bad, it’s true. But they can’t be as sloppy as the Raiders, can they? I don’t think so. No quite, anyhow. San Diego by four.

Chicago (+4) at NY Giants
I don’t believe for a second that the Bears are as good as their record. Trouble is, I’m starting to feel pretty sure that the Giants are as bad as theirs. Here’s what I see: Two teams with serious pass protection issues on offense and decent pass D’s. The big difference is that it’s very, very hard to run against the Bears, which means the Giants are gonna have more need to move the ball through the air. I’m not sure that’s happening. So I’m taking Chicago straight up.

New England (-1) at Miami
The Patriots appear to have no ability whatsoever to rush the passer. That’s not good news. It bodes ill for the season and it bodes ill for this game. Because if Chad Henne could have a decent outing in the face of a blistering pass rush last Sunday night, how do you think he’s likely to perform when he has all day to throw the ball? The way I see it, the only way New England wins this game is if the offense scores every time it gets the ball. And not just in the first half. I’m telling you right now, if you see Zoltan Mesko trotting out onto the field any time in the first three quarters, you might as well go to bed, because the Dolphins will have the game in hand. So the question you’ve got to ask yourself is, can the Pats O get it done against a good D? They have the talent, that’s for sure. It’s all about play calling and execution. If those are there, New England has a chance to win this game and to have a decent season. If not … well, they’ve got two first round picks in the 2011 draft. So there’s that. I’m holding out hope, at least for the nonce, and taking the Patriots to win it. Straight up. By exactly the one point.

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