Week Six Picks
I’ve actually spent a lot more time thinking about this week’s games than I’ve had to spend writing about them. That’s probably bad news. Because the more I think, the more likely it becomes that my stupidity will trip me up. Here’s the short version of what not to expect.
Atlanta (+2.5) at Philadelphia
The Eagles will be starting King Dunlap at left tackle this week. And that, as you know if you saw Dunlap in action after Jason Peters went down on Sunday night, is great news for John Abraham and lousy news for Kevin Kolb. You think Mike Kafka’s ready for NFL action? I don’t. Falcons by four.
Kansas City (+4) at Houston
The Chiefs have been winning with strong defense and a run-first offense so far this season. But as those of us in New England are well aware, they have a quarterback who’s a very capable passer. Matt Cassel should have little difficulty moving the ball against the league’s worst pass D. Even playing a second straight road game, the Chiefs should come out ahead by a field goal.
Cleveland (+13.5) at Pittsburgh
You know, I’ve seen Eric Mangini make some truly dumbass moves as a head coach, but throwing his rookie quarterback to the wolves might take the cake. Steelers win 20-0, with their defense accounting for 14 of their points.
Seattle (+6.5) at Chicago
It’s hard for your huge offensive line issues to hurt you when your opponent has no pass rush (and not much of anything else going for it either), so I’m taking Chicago and giving the points.
Detroit (+10) at NY Giants
The Giants continue to benefit from an incredibly soft schedule, winning by no fewer than two touchdowns.
Baltimore (+3) at New England
So this is the game where we learn whether the Randy Moss trade was a good move, right? Not so much. With or without Moss, the Patriots offense was going to have to dink and dunk all day for the team to have a chance to best what appears to be one of the NFL’s best teams. Can they do that against the Ravens D? Probably not with a lot of success. But given that the Ravens offense tends to struggle significantly in road games, and that Baltimore’s best offensive weapon is operating at less than 100 percent, a little bit of success might be enough. I’ll take the league’s top rated passer to get it done at home. Patriots by three.
San Diego (-8) at St. Louis
No matter how poorly you’re playing, you can always count on the Rams to make you look good. Chargers by 10.
Miami (+3.5) at Green Bay
It’s staring to appear as though neither of these teams is gonna live up to its potential. But someone’s gotta win this game. I’m taking the home team and thinking they win by six.
New Orleans (-4) at Tampa Bay
The way you beat the Buccaneers, who have a stout pass defense, is to pound away at the running game. That’s gonna be tough for a team without a healthy running back. Bucs by a field goal.
NY Jets (-3) at Denver
I think the thin air at mile high is gonna pose a real problem for the … aw, hell, who am I kidding? Frat Boys by a touchdown.
Oakland (+6.5) at San Francisco
The Niners are enough of a mess, that you’d almost suspect the Raiders could manage the upset here even with Jason Campbell starting under center. But you’d be wrong. Both of these teams stink, but the Raiders without Bruce Gradkowski stink ever so slightly more. I’m taking San Francisco straight up, Oakland with the points.
Dallas (+1.5) at Minnesota
Dr. Strangejunk is done. And it’s not really about his elbow tendonitis. It’s about the fact that he’s officially come back for one too many seasons. Favre looked like a deer in the headlights for most of Monday night’s game. Thing is, I think the question of who starts at quarterback for the Vikings this week isn’t much more than a distraction for the media. The Cowboys D couldn’t stop me from putting up 300 passing yards. And the Vikes pass defense is likely gonna be more than what passes for an offensive line in Dallas can handle. Minnesota by six.
Indianapolis (-3) at Washington
Get ready for a whole bunch of stories about how the Colts are turning their season around and starting to take over the race for the AFC South title. May or may not be true, but this game won’t be the evidence of it. The real story is that it’s time for Washington’s season to go in the tank. Indy by a touchdown.
Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars are home, but the Titans are simply the better balanced team. And, you know, they’ve got Chris Johnson. Titans by four.
