This Football Blog

Look at that. I picked a fake upset to start the week and got it right. Let’s see how my luck holds out. Here’s what not to expect.

Buffalo (+5.5) at Cincinnati
Hey, did you hear? The Bills got a win last week. At home. Over the Lions. By two points. That’s nice for Buffalo, isn’t it? And, you know, it’s not like the two-win Bengals have been tearing up the league. But still. Seems to me it’s back to reality time for one of these teams. Cincinnati by a field goal.

Cleveland (+1.5) at Jacksonville
Here are some things I know about this game: One, the Jaguars pass defense is atrocious (they allow 272 yards and better than two touchdowns a game through the air). Two, Colt McCoy is the real deal. Three, the Jaguars’ giveaway/takeaway differential is -6; the Browns’ is +1. Four, if you’re real lucky, you might win one game a season by pure, dumb luck; the rest, you’ve got to earn. Now here’s one thing I think about this game (feel pretty strongly about it, too): Cleveland wins it by seven.

Washington (+7) at Tennessee
A good team might have a chance of recovering in six days from what Washington endured Monday night. But the Racial Slurs aren’t a good team. And the Titans are playing to put a touch loss of their own behind them and stay in the AFC South hunt. Tennessee by 10.

Detroit (+6.5) at Dallas
Which of these 2-7 teams will go into its Thanksgiving day matchup on a positive note? Who cares? Cowboys by four.

Arizona (+7.5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs have lost two straight, and surrendered control of the AFC West as a result. If they can’t turn it around here against the team that forgot to have a quarterback, fans can probably go ahead and start talking about the draft. Chiefs by nine.

Houston (+7) at NY Jets
The good news for the Texans is that they probably won’t lose on a fluke play again this week. The bad news is that … well … Jets by 14.

Green Bay (-3) at Minnesota
Possibly the funniest thing I’ve heard during an NFL game broadcast this season came at the end of the Sunday night game between these two teams back in week seven. That’s was when Cris Collinsworth, who had just seen Brett Favre throw three picks and cost his team any chance at a win, actually opined that these teams might meet again in the playoffs. It still makes me chuckle to think about it. Packers by four.

Baltimore (-10) at Carolina
The Ravens, who are playing on 10 days rest, are looking to rebound from a tough loss and keep up with Pittsburgh in the AFC North. The Panthers, who are painfully awful (can’t score, can’t hold on to the ball, can’t stop the pass, can’t stop the run), appear to be simply going through the motions.

Oakland (+7) at Pittsburgh
The O line problems that dogged the Steelers Sunday night could be a real problem again in this game. The Raiders, who look like they may actually be the Raiders again, have 27 sacks on the season, which puts them in a tie with the Chargers for third best in the league. Things in this game have the potential to get ugly quick. Of course, it’s hard to believe the Steelers could possibly drop two straight games at home. And there’s the small matter of the Oakland offense bearing no resemblance whatsoever to the New England O (the Raiders offense happens on the ground, and Pittsburgh by and large does not yield run yards). I’m not giving seven, but I’ll definitely take the Steelers straight up.

Atlanta (-3) at St. Louis
OK, I’ll grant you that the Rams aren’t as bad as I expected them to be. And that they appear to have a heck of a pass rush. Still, I have a hard time believing that the Rams, on any field, can stay competitive with a team as balanced (and as well rested this week) as the Falcons. Maybe I’ll be surprised in the end, but for now I’m taking Atlanta and happily giving the points.

Seattle (+11.5) at New Orleans
According to their records, only a game separates these two things. That’s one of those places where the folks who insist the only stats that matter are wins and losses are dead wrong. The Saints are coming off a bye, getting healthier and, apparently, preparing to mount an actual title defense. The Seahawks are struggling to find an identity and fortunate to be playing in the NFC West. New Orleans by 14.

Tampa Bay (+3) at San Francisco
There’s nothing I like about this game. The Buccaneers give up far too many yards on the ground and far too many points through the air for my taste. The 49ers, meanwhile, score too few points, give up to many, and turn the ball over way too often. I’d rather not pick either team. And while that usually leads me to default to the home squad, there’s something in my head telling me not to trust San Francisco. So I’m playing the hunch and taking the Bucs to win it outright. But I don’t feel good about it.

Indianapolis (+3) at New England
If the Patriots we saw Sunday night in Pittsburgh are for real, this game should pose no serious challenge. Seriously. The Colts are banged up. They have significant problems on the offensive line. And they’re thin at wide receiver. That’s not a good combination no matter who you’ve got taking the snaps. And, no, you’re not going to see New England blitzing in this game like they did in Pittsburgh. You don’t beat Peyton Manning by blitzing. You beat him by bringing enough pressure that he doesn’t have all day to sit in the pocket and wait for someone to get open and dropping enough guys into coverage that he ends up having to get rid of the ball or throw into tight coverage, giving your DBs a chance to make a play. Even with the lingering questions about their pass rush, the Patriots ought to be able to make something happen against the Colts O-line. That’s something I don’t think the Colts can reciprocate at this point. Indy’s secondary has suffered significant injuries. They’re down to using guys who should be on the practice squad in nickel and dime sets. And their defensive front’s success turns on the performance of two players, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, neither of whom has been the same player on the road this season as he has been at home. If those edge rushers can’t be effective, Tom Brady is going to pick apart the Colts’ secondary. So how can Indy stay competitive or find a way to pull off the upset? I’m not sure. The only possibility that comes to mind is that maybe Manning actually does what the TV commentators are forever saying he can do: will his team to victory. But me, I’m not a big believer in intangibles like that. So I’m going with New England here. By nine.

NY Giants (+3) at Philadelphia
Eagles fans hoping to see anything approximating a repeat of Monday night’s performance in Washington would do well to consider the stark contrast between the Giants’ and Racial Slurs’ defenses. New Jersey’s D is ranked best in the league. Their balanced and they know how to rush the passer. Washington’s D is ranked worst in the league. There’s virtually nothing they do well. And, yeah, the Giants are coming off an embarrassing divisional loss, but that’s more likely to motivate than to deflate them. New Jersey’s also playing on a full week’s rest (not that Philly had to work terribly hard on Monday night). I think if the Giants can manage to hold on to the ball for a change (which might not be easy against a defense that leads the league in interceptions), they should be able to keep this game competitive. I don’t think New Jersey will win, mind you, but I suspect they’ll be in it to the end. Philadelphia by a field goal.

Denver (+10) at San Diego
The thing that bothers me about this game is that I’m gonna have to hear all night long how dangerous the Chargers are and how they’re once again gonna come on strong in the second half of the season and make a run at the Super Bowl and blah, blah, blah. I don’t buy it. But I do think the Chargers come away with a win, mainly by virtue of the Broncos’ continuing failure to mount any kind of defense. San Diego by nine.