This Football Blog

Mixed bag this week. A lot of games that seem pretty clearly to be going in one direction (though that usually means at least one or two shocking upsets are in the offing) and a handful that I can’t figure no matter how hard I try. I’ll probably come up on the wrong side of most, if not all, of those. Here’s what not to expect.

Jacksonville (+2) at Tennessee
I can’t find a single meaningful reason to anticipate that the Jaguars have any real hope of winning this game. Jacksonville has no ability to hold on to the ball. The only thing the Jags do consistently well on offense is run. The only thing they do consistently well on defense is nothing. Plus, they almost always lose to the Titans. Still, Tennessee has appeared to be circling the bowl in recent weeks. And I’m not sure a halfway healthy quarterback is all they need to set things right. I’m going with Jacksonville straight up, but I’m warning you right now that I’m doing it on a total hunch.

Washington (+7.5) at NY Giants
There’s very little about the Giants that inspires confidence. But there’s nothing whatsoever to like about the Racial Slurs. And the game is in New Jersey. So, yeah, I’ll take the home team and give the points. Why not?

Cleveland (+4.5) at Miami
If Colt McCoy were playing, I’d absolutely be taking Cleveland in this game. But he isn’t. And I’m not taking a squad quarterbacked by Jake Delhomme at this point in his career. I’m just not. Miami by six.

Chicago (-3.5) at Detroit
Sooner or later, I’m probably gonna have to give in and accept that the Bears are for real. It hasn’t happened yet, though. And it probably won’t happen after this game, even though I fully expect Chicago to win with relative ease. The Lions can’t run the ball to save their lives. And no one seems to be able to beat the Bears through the air. That doesn’t leave you with much if you’re Detroit, does it? Chicago by no less than a touchdown.

Buffalo (+6) at Minnesota
Here’s the deal: Ryan Fitzpatrick is far and away the best quarterback in this game. And everyone knew it except Brett Favre. The old guy throws a pair of costly picks and the Bills pull off yet another big upset on the road, winning by a point.

New Orleans (-6.5) at Cincinnati
It’s official: The Bungles are back. And so are the Super Bowl Saints. Though they’re playing a second straight road game, I still like New Orleans by 14.

San Francisco (+9.5) at Green Bay
There’s not a whole lot to say about this game. It’s about as uneven a matchup as there is on the schedule this week. And there’s no chance of San Francisco catching Green Bay sleeping. The Pack are trying to keep pace with the Bears in the NFC North. They need a win and they’ll get one. By 10, anyway.

Denver (+8) at Kansas City
The only question remaining about when the Broncos will can Josh McDaniels is whether there will be a new CBA in place before the end of the season. If there is, you can expect McDaniels to be out of work by January 6. If there isn’t, there’s always the possibility the team waits until its sure there’s gonna be a 2011 season before they make a move. What does that have to do with this game? Not all that much. Or not before the fact, anyhow. Though if Denver manages to get blown out by a division foe yet again, maybe things change. I’m not expecting that, though. I think the Chiefs win my a more reasonable margin. Let’s say six.

Oakland (+12.5) at San Diego
Man, the Raiders sure did have their little moment in the middle of the season, didn’t they? But that appears to be over. Back to business as usual. Chargers by 14.

Carolina (+6.5) at Seattle
Man, would I prefer not to pick an NFC West team to win, but can you see the Carolina Panthers and their non-existent offense (12.7 points per game) traveling across the country and posting their second win of the season? Neither can I. Seahawks stumble into a 10-point win.

Dallas (+5) at Indianapolis
OK, so I said the Colts wouldn’t lose two in a row and I was wrong, wrong, wrong. But that was the Chargers. This is the Cowboys (well, you know, not really the Cowboys, just some guys wearing Cowboys uniforms). Indy by 13.

Atlanta (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
If the Buccaneers want to be taken seriously, they have to win this game. Actually, I take that back. There’s no question the Bucs want to be taken seriously. I guess what I mean is that if they expect to be taken seriously – not to mention hope to compete for a wild card berth – they have to be able to win a home game against a division opponent, no matter how good that opponent might be. (For the record, I think the Falcons are very, very good, but maybe not so great as their press at the moment.) I don’t think Tampa’s up to the task. They lack the offensive firepower to keep up with Atlanta. And they have way too much trouble stopping the run to have any chance of controlling the pace of the game. This is where the Buccaneers bow out and Tampa Bay fans start looking to next year. Falcons by four.

St. Louis (-3) at Arizona
It’s a dubious distinction to be sure, but the Rams are easily the best team in the NFC West. And the Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their inability to score, inability to stop the run and inability to hold on to the ball all should bit the Cards in the ass yet again this week. Rams by seven.

Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore
As the injuries continue to mount in Pittsburgh, the question of the moment is, could the Steelers end up on the outside looking in come January? This game should start to answer that question. If the Ravens can figure out how to hold on to the damned ball, they should be able to manage a win. I’m taking Baltimore straight up and looking for a push with the points.

NY Jets (+3) at New England
You know, I didn’t think the Frat Boys stood much of a chance in this game before they lost Jim Leonhard, so I’m sure as hell not giving them a shot now. On paper, yes, these teams look fairly evenly matched. And the Frat Boys took it to the Patriots pretty good last time the two teams played. Nearly three months ago. In New Jersey. But anyone who’s been paying attention knows not only that the Patriots are a much different team than they were then (as has been well document and oft stated), but that while the Pats have been playing better and better football of late (particularly on the offensive side of the ball), the Frat Boys in recent weeks have looked more than a bit off. I think you can talk about the trends and you can talk about intangibles (the Pats don’t lose at home, they don’t lose to the same team twice in a season, they need it more – because, look, with the way the tie-breaking system works, if the Jets win this game, that’s it for the division, but if the Pats win, the Frat Boys are still in the race – Pats don’t lose in December … ) and they all come up favoring New England. But you know what else? I think a lot of what happens here is gonna come down to blitzing. I’m not a huge fan of blitz-heavy defenses, but I have the sense that this game is gonna turn on which team can afford to blitz and which can’t. I think the Frat Boys are in a bad position here. The New England O-line is playing extremely well; if New Jersey wants to get to Tom Brady, they’re gonna have to send extra bodies after him. And the problem with blitzing Brady is that if you do it, he tends to carve you up. He only needs a second to find the one of his possession receivers or tight ends you’ve left uncovered in order to send that extra man, or to swing the ball out to his pass-catching tailback. And if all he can get are five yards at a time, he’ll dink and dunk you to death. Well as he’s played for a second year man, I’m not sure you can say the same for Mark Sanchez. And I think, in many ways it’s easier to blitz Sanchez than it is to blitz Brady. You’re not gonna get to Sanchez by tying up his receivers until your defensive front can get to him (certainly not with the Patriots’ pass rush; but, really, not with anyone’s pass rush); those receivers are too good. You’ve got to hurry Sanchez and get him to make mistakes. I expect to see the Patriots use a four-man fronts, blitzes and disguised coverages to shake the young QB out of his comfort zone, and thus neutralize whatever advantage the Frat Boys’ athletic wide receivers might otherwise provide. And as the game wears on and the Patriots build a lead, I expect to see Sanchez make one or two costly mistakes. I’m looking for a New England win by a margin of better than 10.