This Football Blog

So here we go. The most pointless post of any given season on a blog wholly devoted to pointless posts. How’s that for a tease, huh?

Seriously, as I point out every single year, it’s pretty damned close to impossible to predict what’s likely to transpire in the NFL in a given week. Take the whole of a 17-week season, add a post-season that’s as unpredictable from week to week as any in professional sports (and that’s four months away), and the only thing trying to make predictions can possibly get you is outright humiliation. But I’m making my picks just the same. Just like I do every season. Because … I don’t know. Because it’s a thing that you do. Because it’s exciting to stand on the eve of a new football season, and that energy has to go somewhere. And because five months from today, when it’s the day after Super Bowl XLVII and I begin my countdown of the 213 days until the 2013 NFL season begins, either I’ll have got something right and I’ll feel pretty good about it or I’ll have been wrong and I’ll have forgotten about it. So, really, there’s nothing on the line here except your time. And I’m shockingly cavalier in my approach to that.

OK, then, let’s do this.

Regular Season Records
Even I’m not foolish enough to think I predict a team’s final record. Plus, really, it’s a lot of time looking over schedules ticking off wins and losses — all to be wrong. So I don’t. Instead, I will once again give an estimated range of how many games I think each team is likely to win. Even then, I’m going to be wrong about many, dreadfully wrong about a few. I can live with that.

AFC East

New England Patriots, 12-15
This is the same range of wins I predicted for the Pats last year. I should have been wrong then. A team with the 2011 New England D shouldn’t be good for more than 10 or 11 wins. But the Patriots had Tom Brady (the greatest quarterback in NFL history) to carry them on his shoulders. This year, Brady has more weapons on offense, and the Patriots appear to have a greatly improved defense. If the O line holds up (there are questions, but I suspect the line will be good enough) and Brady can stay healthy (these two things, obviously, are connected), the 2012 Patriots should be a better team than the one that went 13-3 and was a play away from winning Super Bowl XLVI in spite of its defensive deficiencies.

Buffalo Bills, 8-11
OK, I’m in, but not all the way. The Bills should be better on defense (especially up front where it matters most) and at least for the moment they’re healthier on offense. They’re also more experienced. That’s gotta be good for at least two more wins than they managed last year. And if everything goes right, they could come close to doubling their 2011 win total. That would probably be enough to earn them a spot in the post-season, maybe even the conference five seed. Which ain’t bad.

New York Jets, 4-7
Rex Ryan‘s been doing a lot of talking (really? Rex shooting his mouth off?) about how great his defense is going to be this season. He’d best be right, because his offense is going go be downright atrocious.

Miami Dolphins, 1-3
You know what’s a good thing to have in the age of the quarterback? Someone to catch the damned passes. Maybe next year, when Robert Woods is on the team.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-12
The Steelers tried to fix their offensive line in the off-season. Unfortunately for them, some important fixes didn’t quite take. That might not kill them. Pittsburgh, as always, brings a bruising defense into the season. And the Steelers say they’re recommitted to the run, which should take some of the pressure off not only the line but Ben Roethlisberger. In the end, I think they take the division more because of what the other teams in the AFC North are missing than what the Steelers have to offer. But that’s OK. It’s just about getting into the tournament. After that, anything can happen.

Baltimore Ravens, 8-10
I agree (with Joe Flacco) that Joe Flacco is a better quarterback than he’s generally given credit for being. And, you know, that’s nice and all. We might even see the evidence of it if the Ravens’ O line can hold up (I suspect it will, at least most of the time). But when you’re built to win with defense and your defense has an off year, things have a way of going south in a hurry. The Ravens can challenge for the six seed, but I don’t see them playing too deep into January even if they make it.

Cincinnati Bengals, 7-10
The Bengals appear to have a hell of a defense. On offense, they could be slightly better than last year, or they could be slightly worse (depending on whether there’s a sophomore slump in store for Andy Dalton and/or A.J. Green). And that will be the difference between a push for the playoffs or a frustrating finish.

Cleveland Browns, 2-5
The Browns appear to have done a nice job of improving their offense in this year’s draft. Next year, maybe they can focus on D. This season should illustrate why a defense is a nice thing to have.

AFC South

Houston Texans, 12-14
The Texans were the best team in the AFC last season, right up until they weren’t. They’re probably better on both sides of the ball going into 2012 than they were this time a year ago. If that weren’t also true of New England, Houston might just have been in a position to run away with the conference. And who knows? They could do it anyhow.

Tennessee Titans, 6-8
The Titans are probably the second best team in the AFC South. So that’s, um, you know, nice. I suppose.

Indianapolis Colts, 5-7
The post-Peyton Colts appear to be headed in the right direction. But it’s a long road. And a young NFL team isn’t an easy thing to be.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-5
Maurice Jones-Drew is finally back with the team. That may very well prove to be the last thing the Jaguars or their fans have to get excited about until the 2013 draft.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs, 8-11
I think the Chiefs are headed for the three or four seed (and a first-round exit from the playoffs, but that’s another story) in spite of what looks like a questionable defensive line. They’ve got enough offense that they should be able to put up points and overcome a certain amount of inconsistent play on D. They also have a secondary that should be able to help them cover up some of their issues up front (their linebackers also should help). Their deficiencies will catch up with them, of course, but not right away. Not in this division.

Denver Broncos, 7-10
Sure, Peyton Manning makes the offense instantly better. Maybe even good enough to steal the division title if the Broncos can catch the Chiefs napping. But a team without a pass rush is still a team that’s going to struggle. How much they’ll struggle really depends on whether Manning can stay healthy and whether the offense under his leadership can put up a lot of points.

San Diego Chargers, 5-7
The Chargers have some talented players, that’s for sure. But there aren’t enough of them, and the ones they have won’t be functioning in complete units on either side of the ball. That makes for sloppy football. And sloppy doesn’t succeed.

Oakland Raiders, 3-6
Like last year’s team, the 2012 Raiders may well realize some success within their relatively weak division. But you can only get so far on minor points of pride.

NFC East

New York Giants, 9-12
I don’t think the Giants are any better right now than they were a year ago. But neither are they any worse. And they’re at least somewhat healthier. Plus, they were good enough last season to, you know, win the damned league championship. If they suffer any kind of a hangover, the Giants will open a window for the Eagles to step up and take the division. If they hold it together, they’ve at least got a chance to win it all once again.

Philadelphia Eagles, 9-12
The Eagles ought to be the favorite to win this division. They’ve got plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. They’ve got what looks like an outstanding pass rush. They’re out from under the whole Dream Team nonsense that appeared to make 2011 too big for them. And yet … I’m not sure. It seems more and more like Michael Vick is one of those guys who’s just never gonna get all the way over the hump. (Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy, right?) And that’s a problem. Still, the Eagles should make the playoffs either as division champs (if the Giants let them take it) or as a wild card team. And maybe, just maybe, if they can get there, everything will break right.

Washington Native Americans, 5-8
Seventy-five years ago this season, playing their first season in DC, the former Boston Braves started a rookie passer who would change the course of NFL history. This season, the Native Americans start a rookie QB who will light up the highlight reels more than once. And by the end of the season, he’ll have us talking about Washington as strong contenders for 2013. But they’re not winning a championship in 2012.

Dallas Cowboys, 3-5
No D line. No O line. No dice.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers, 12-15
The Packers were probably the best team in the NFL last season (during the regular season, anyhow). They’re probably the best team in the NFL right now. And, barring catastrophic injury, probably the worst you’ll be able to say about them this year is that they don’t really run the ball all that well. Big deal. Let’s see if they can carry through January this time around.

Detroit Lions, 10-13
If the Lions were in the NFC South or West, they’d have a shot at a division championship and the conference two seed. But they’re not. So they’ll have to settle for the five seed. They should win their wild card round matchup easily. And they could prove dangerous in the divisional round. Honestly, I won’t be at all shocked if the Lions sneak into the Super Bowl.

Chicago Bears, 5-7
There are plenty of folks out there who think the Bears are poised to make a run at a wild card berth this year. I’m not one of them. I won’t be until the Chicago figures out how to field an offensive line.

Minnesota Vikings, 2-4
No one (or no one outside of Minnesota, anyhow) is expecting the Vikings to make a run at anything other than a top five draft pick. It’s hard to overcome an 0-6 record in your division. (OK, maybe they beat Chicago at home and get to 1-5. But you get the point.)

NFC South

New Orleans Saints, 10-12
Yeah, I get it. Bountygate and its fallout and blah, blah, blah. That’ll cost the Saints some wins. It’ll prevent them from getting the one seed and might even keep them from earning a first-round bye. But that’s about it. This team has way too much talent and way too big a chip on its shoulder to fall apart.

Atlanta Falcons, 9-11
I’m not sure anyone would be picking the Falcons to win the NFC South title if the Saints weren’t in such a state of turmoil (which is to say, I’m pretty sure no one would be picking the Falcons to win the division if the Saints weren’t in such a state of turmoil). But the Saints are in a state of turmoil. So that changes everything, right? Well, everything except the fact that the Falcons have issues on both lines. That doesn’t lead to success on the football field. Not over the long term, anyhow.

Carolina Panthers, 8-10
If the Falcons stumble (or, I suppose, if the Saints stumble) look for the Panthers to take advantage and fight their way into contention. They’ve certainly got enough talent to make a run. But I still feel like they’re a year away.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2-5
You’ve got to think this is the end of the road for Josh Freeman. The only question, to my mind, is whether the Bucs will fare poorly enough to be able to replace him with Matt Barkley.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers, 10-13
The 49ers may be a bit better than they were last season. Or they may be a bit worse. It all depends on what they get out of their new wide receivers (or, put another way, whether Alex Smith is able to get the ball to Randy Moss and Mario Manningham on a consistent basis), and whether Moss can hold off becoming a distraction for a full season. Either way, the Niners are taking no one by surprise this season. Which only means that they may not get the two seed and a bye. They’re winning the division. Because, let’s face it, it’s a one-team division to begin with.

Seattle Seahawks, 4-7
Some team is going to finish a meaningless second in this division. Might as well be the Seahawks, right?

Arizona Cardinals, 4-7
Or maybe it will be the Cardinals.

St. Louis Rams, 3-6
But it almost certainly won’t be the Rams.

Playoffs

Sure, why not? Because, you know, I totally predict now who’s gonna be playing well in January. Can’t everyone?

AFC
1. New England
2. Houston
3. Pittsburgh
4. Kansas City
5. Baltimore
6. Buffalo

NFC
1. Green Bay
2. NY Giants
3. San Francisco
4. New Orleans
5. Detroit
6. Philadelphia

Wild Card Playoffs

AFC
Baltimore defeats Kansas City
Pittsburgh defeats Buffalo

NFC
Detroit defeats New Orleans
San Francisco defeats Philadelphia

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
Pittsburgh defeats Houston
New England defeats Baltimore

NFC
NY Giants defeat San Francisco
Green Bay defeats Detroit

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats Pittsburgh

NFC
Green Bay defeats NY Giants

Super Bowl XLVII
New England defeats Green Bay, 31-28

And that’s exactly how it won’t ever happen in the 2012 NFL season.