Week Three Picks
I’d like to tell you that after two weeks of football things have started to make sense to me. But they haven’t. There’s a strong possibility that they never will. And it might just be that I’m stupid. (Do you ever worry that you’re stupid, but no one wants to tell you? I do sometimes. And then I think about how people are always telling me I’m stupid, which kind of negates that concern. Then I start to worry that maybe those people are right. Then I see something shiny and I forget all about the whole thing.) Anyway, here’s what not to expect in week three. (Ooh, there’s something shiny. See ya.)
NY Giants (+2.5) at Carolina
It’s a bit of a relief — for picking purposes, I mean — that the Giants are coming in so badly banged up. Because, well, here’s the deal. If it weren’t for those critical injuries, I might be forced to spend time trying to figure out whether it’s safe to read anything into last weekend’s results in Charlotte. And that would be tough to do without knowing just how much of a tailspin the coachless Saints are in. For instance, one might look at a box score from that contest and conclude that the Panthers’ found their run game. A 219-yard effort on the ground (even when 71 of those yards come from your quarterback) will tend to lead you to that kind of thinking. But the Saints also gave up 153 rushing yards to Washington in week one. So was it Carolina’s ground game coming to life or the New Orleans run D laying yet another egg? And even if you knew the answer, what application would it have this week? The Giants’ run defense has been nothing but uneven so far this season. Awful against the Cowboys, stout against the Buccaneers. And the Giants haven’t yet played away from the Meadowlands. So who are they, really? And on that note, I’m also not certain what to make of the fact that that the second quarter of last weekend’s game featured Eli Manning throwing picks like it was 2010. Maybe that was a fluke. Or maybe it points to the reemergence of an issue that has plagued Eli throughout his pro career (his touchdown/interception ratio is a distinctly non-elite 1.4/1). Only time and additional games will tell, though I can’t think of many quarterbacks who have been helped by losing most of their receiving corps. Fortunately, I don’t have to dwell on the uncertain/speculative stuff. Because I know for a fact that the Giants have some really serious injury issues. I also know that they’re traveling on a short week. That’s a terrible combination of factors. And that’s why I feel like I’ve gotta take Carolina. I think the Panthers win it by something like four, though I’d add three points to that for any/every Giants turnover.
St. Louis (+7.5) at Chicago
The St. Louis Rams aren’t a great football team, but do you know what they’ve been doing pretty well this season? Picking off passes. And do you know who comes into this game having thrown the second most interceptions in the league (five)? That’s right, this guy. And, OK, sure, four of those picks came in one really awful game that will be a good 10 days in the rearview by the time these teams take the field. So one doesn’t want to read too much into that one bit of information. But then, you know, you add in a bit of gimpiness for Matt Forte and things start to look at bit more even. I’m not sure the Rams can actually pull off an upset on the road, but I’m sure as hell not taking the Bears to win by better than a touchdown. Or even better than a field goal. More like a point, I think.
Tampa Bay (+8) at Dallas
Nine NFL teams, including the Giants, Patriots, Packers and Saints, have lost their home openers this season. As the last team in the league to host a game, the Cowboys have an opportunity to make it an even 10. Will they? No, probably not. Dallas by nine.
San Francisco (-6.5) at Minnesota
Some look at the fact that Christian Ponder currently leads the NFL with an unreal completion percentage of 75.8 as an indication that Ponder is headed for a breakout season. I look at that number, from a guy who completed just 54.3 percent of his throws a year ago, and think there’s a major correction on the way. This game may not bring Ponder all the way back down to earth — the Niners D has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete nearly 65 percent of their passes so far this season — but it will start the process. San Francisco by six.
Detroit (-3.5) at Tennessee
Man, 0-3 (and 0-2 at home) is a rough way to start a season. Lions by a touchdown.
Cincinnati (+3) at Washington
Going into the season, I was pretty sure the Bengals D would be at least solid, possibly excellent. I also thought RGIII‘s career would get off to a slow start. That’s a whole lot of wrong right there, isn’t it? Native Americans by 10.
NY Jets (-2.5) at Miami
The Jets may be playing their second consecutive road game, but I’m not sure that matters here. I kind of think, in fact, that you pretty much have to be outright jetlagged to lose to the Dolphins. Assuming their “quarterback” doesn’t find a way to give this one away, New Jersey should come out ahead by at least six.
Kansas City (+9) at New Orleans
The Chiefs, too, are on the road for the second straight week. Only with them, I think it makes a difference. That and, you know, the fact that Drew Brees has to start playing like Drew Brees sooner or later. This seems like a pretty good opportunity to me. Saints by 14.
Buffalo (-3) at Cleveland
This is a poser. I have no idea what to make of either of these teams. And there are two usual solutions to that problem. One is pick the home team. The other is pick the team that isn’t the Browns. Which brings us right back to square one. Aw, hell, I’m picking the not-Browns. Buffalo by a field goal.
Jacksonville (+3) at Indianapolis
Did you know that the Jaguars are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown yet this season? Of course, they’ve also surrendered more rushing TDs than any team other than the Saints. So you take the bad with the good, I suppose. And if this game were being played in Jacksonville, I’d look at the fact that the Colts don’t run the ball particularly well and figure the Jags could grab a win here. But it isn’t. And the thing is that preventing your opponent from scoring a lot of points is only part of the equation. You also have to be able to put some points on the board yourself. The Jaguars haven’t done much of that yet, and I’m not expecting that trend to reverse itself in a road game against a division rival. Colts win 13-10.
Philadelphia (-3.5) at Arizona
Quick: Who’s the most intercepted quarterback in football so far this season? That’s right, folks, he may having given up killing dogs, but Michael Vick just can’t quit killing drives. And the thing of it all is that the Cardinals don’t even need to pick you off to shut you down. I’d be willing to give three and half in this game, but not to Arizona. Cardinals by a touchdown.
Atlanta (+3) at San Diego
Yeah, OK, both of these teams come in at 2-0. But not all 2-0 records are created equal. I guess that’s my way of saying that I believe in the Falcons, but not the Chargers. And if they weren’t traveling on a short week, I’d believe in the Falcons in a major way. But they are. That’s why I’m only looking for Atlanta to win this game by three.
Houston (-2) at Denver
The Texans are the better team here. Probably by a good bit. But I’ve said before that I think the Broncos are going to be a very tough team to beat in their building (as usual) this season. And I’m sticking with that. Broncos by one.
Pittsburgh (-4) at Oakland
In an absolutely shocking development, the Raiders stink. Can’t score. Can’t stop their opponents from scoring. Can’t get out of their owned damned way. Stink. Steelers by 10.
New England (+3) at Baltimore
The Patriots inability to execute on offense against Arizona on Sunday was shocking and a bit scary. But the New England D looked great once again. And, as my Twitter (@SeanGlennon) acquaintance The Quant Coach pointed out to me earlier this week, they’re actually better than the Baltimore D. So considering that (and, in particular, the fact that the Ravens don’t seem able to stop the run), and given that I don’t see execution issues being a regular thing for the Patriots O, I’m gonna take New England to pull off the upset. I won’t be floored if it goes the other way, but I like the Pats to end up in another nail-biter, but this time to come out on top by a point.
Green Bay (-3) at Seattle
I know it looks like the Seahawks can beat the Packers. I just have a hard time imagining that they will beat the Packers. Mostly that’s because I’m entirely certain that Aaron Rodgers is a much better quarterback than his stats so far this season imply. Green Bay by seven.
