Week Fifteen Picks
Well, Thursday night didn’t go as expected. I guess Peyton must have thought the playoffs had started. Let’s see what else I can get wrong t his week. Here’s what not to expect.
Washington (+6.5) at Atlanta
The loser here will be on track for the second overall pick in the 2014 draft. Well, that’s the case if the loser is Atlanta, anyhow. A Washington loss would also go a long way to determining draft order — but with the advantage going to St. Louis, the team that owns the Racists’ first round pick. The Rams have to be feeling pretty good right now. Atlanta by a touchdown.
San Francisco (-5.5) at Tampa Bay
It’s entirely understandable that it has become popular to pick the Bucs in the upset. Tampa is one of several home underdogs, and any week that features a overlarge number of home dogs is going to give rise to a few upsets. The Buccaneers also have won four of their last five, a run that includes victories over the Dolphins and Lions, neither of which is a great team but both of which are in the post-season hunt. Moreover, San Francisco is coming off an exhausting win over a Seattle and may well be due for a letdown game. But, you know, I’m just not seeing it. The Niners are a better team than the Fins or the Lions, especially on defense. Plus, San Francisco’s has hardly locked up the NFC six seed; the 49ers know they need to win games like this one in order to ensure themselves a place in the tournament. They’ll get the job done and, more than that, win handily. San Francisco by 13.
Seattle (-7) at NY Giants
The Seahawks need two more wins (max) to sew up home field advantage through the NFC playoffs. A victory over the Giants, who are 100 percent done and looking toward the off-season, should prove a pretty solid first step. But this is Seattle’s second straight road game, and the trip east is never easy, so let’s look for the difference to be more like four.
Chicago (pick ’em) at Cleveland
It became clear to me several weeks ago that no one wants to win the NFC North. Browns by six.
Houston (+5.5) at Indianapolis
The Colts may be fading, but no one’s fading fast enough to lose to the truly awful Texans. Indy by a touchdown.
Buffalo (-2) at Jacksonville
There’s nothing on the line but a better spot in the draft. The Bills come out ahead in that regard. Jaguars by a field goal.
New England (-2.5) at Miami
The Broncos’ loss to San Diego Thursday night opened the door for the Patriots to steal the AFC one seed. That’s nice and all, but it’s rather unlikely. New England’s going to drop one of their last three. Might be this one. Might be next week in Baltimore. (Might be both, frankly, given the Patriots’ increasingly insane injury situation, not to mention their inability to get the offense going in the first half.) Ultimately, though, until I see different I have to pick the better team to win. And that’s New England. Another close one. Patriots by a point.
Philadelphia (-4.5) at Minnesota
The better part of the Vikings offense is sidelined. That should just about do it. Eagles by 14.
NY Jets (+11) at Carolina
The Jets have won one in a row. That’s usually enough to get the fans in New Jersey thinking their team’s going to the Super Bowl. And that’s got to be a nice little world to live in. Panthers by 20.
Kansas City (-4.5) at Oakland
The Chiefs have an outside chance to grab the AFC West crown. You know, if the Broncos completely fall apart. That’s not happening, which makes this game almost entirely irrelevant. But the Chiefs will win it anyhow. By a touchdown.
Arizona (-2.5) at Tennessee
The Cardinals still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs if they can win out. That won’t matter much when they get to Seattle next weekend. But it might help propel them to a win here. Along with, you know, being the better team. Arizona by six.
New Orleans (-6) at St. Louis
Road schmode, it’s an indoor game. Saints by 17.
Green Bay (+7) at Dallas
Neither of these teams is going anywhere. But Dallas will still be able to pretend it’s going somewhere when it’s all over. Cowboys by seven.
Cincinnati (-2.5) at Pittsburgh
There’s no question about which of these is the better team. Cincy’s headed for a divisional title and may well yet take the AFC two seed away from battered New England. But that doesn’t mean anyone should expect the Steelers to roll over as they host a hated divisional rival. Pittsburgh will make it a game, even if they don’t succeed in spoiling the Bengals chances to improve their post-season berth. Cincinnati by three.
Baltimore (+6) at Detroit
The Ravens probably have the toughest path of all the teams playing for the AFC six seed over the final weeks of the season. From here, Baltimore hosts New England, then travels to Cincinnati. They need to win at least two of those three if they’re going to hold off Miami and San Diego. The Lions are the weakest of the three opponents, which means the Ravens absolutely have to win this game. Fortunately for them, there’s that thing where no one wants to win the NFC North. Baltimore by four.
