Sorry, Tiki, But You’re Just Wrong
OK, Tiki, here’s the problem with your take on the glaring disparity between the quality of teams in the AFC and NFC this season. (And, no, this is not going to be about the potential for a 7-9 team to be the NFC’s four seed — see my last two posts — though that’s hardly beside the point.)
A) In interconference play this season the AFC is a combined 32-18. That’s a winning average of .640 (or, if you prefer, the AFC is winning nearly two thirds of all interconference games).
B) The AFC has six teams (including 6-6 Buffalo and 6-6 Cincinnati) that are undefeated so far this season against NFC teams (plus, Indianapolis has already completed a season sweep against the NFC North, a division that includes two strong NFC playoff contenders in Green Bay and Minnesota); the NFC has one team (your very own Giants) that is currently undefeated against the AFC, having beaten the 3-8 Cleveland Browns, but with Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati remaining on its schedule).
C) Take away their records against the NFC and a good number of AFC teams end up around .500 (though, obviously, not the best teams in the conference, which win no matter what team they’re playing), which puts the lie to your assertion regarding intraconference parity.
D) The teams at the bottom of each conference have similar records (subtracting the worst of the worst, you see a bunch of teams in each conference at 4-8 or 5-7); it’s at the top where there’s real disparity. And that disparity is pronounced.
E) The current frontrunners for the five and six seeds in the AFC have 7-5 records. In the NFC, there are two 7-5 teams tied for the three seed (Green Bay and Minnesota); and two 6-6 teams tied for the four seed (St. Louis and Seattle) — these are prospective division champs. (No division leader in the AFC, meanwhile, stands at worse than 9-3). Plus, not only does a 10-6 finish in the AFC not guarantee you a playoff spot, but it appears likely that one or two AFC teams will reach 10-6 and miss the postseason, while in the NFC, 10-6 would be enough to win at least three, and probably all four, divisions. And not only will 9-7 in the NFC probably get a team into the playoffs, but 8-8 very likely would, and even 7-9 looms as a possibility (again, see the two posts immediately below).
Yes, Tiki, you’re right; the imbalance between the conferences does seem to be cyclical. But that is entirely beside the point. Because the point, for the nonce, is that the AFC is by far the better conference. And that point is irrefutable.
