Week Seventeen Picks
The thing about 17 weeks is that it’s, like, nothing. One minute you’re marveling at the fact that guys are able to play in pads and helmets while you’re sweating away in a T-shirt and shorts, the next you’re watching sideline shots of guys with steam coming off their heads and wondering whether you’ll get a snow game in the playoffs. And football just keeps happening the whole time. And happening in ways I never quite expect.
Take week sixteen. I finished 10-6 straight up (not terrible, I suppose, given that there were a couple of upsets I wouldn’t have picked even if I’d known they were coming), 5-11 against the spread (pretty bloody awful). For the season, I’m 149-91 (.621) straight up, 113-122-5 (.481) against the spread.
I don’t expect to improve any in this final week, particularly given that I don’t have any idea of which teams are gonna bother to show up to play. But I’ve got this far, so I suppose I might as well press on. Here’s what not to expect.
NY Jets (-2.5) at Buffalo
I’m sure Rex Ryan would love to find a way to derail his former team’s postseason hopes. But I suspect the Bills’ players are ready to move on to the off season. Jets by a field goal.
New England (-10) at Miami
Big spread aside, the Dolphins should be able to find a way to win this game. Sure, the Patriots are playing for home field throughout the AFC playoffs. But New England has chosen to rest several banged up starters. They’d clearly rather be a healthy two seed than an even more hobbled one seed. A division opponent looking to end its season with a satisfying win in front of the home crowd would take advantage of that situation. But I’m not sure that’s Miami. The Dolphins have looked for weeks as if they’ve given up on their season. And I don’t think you can just dial the intensity back up in week 17. Patriots win a fairly sloppy game by a touchdown.
Baltimore (+9) at Cincinnati
The Bengals don’t really have any hope of snagging the AFC two seed and a first round bye after Monday night’s loss to the Broncos. But with Denver’s game not kicking off until 4:25, Cincinnati still as to play as if there were a real chance the Broncos could stumble. And the Ravens already had their big moment last week when they effectively knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs. Cincinnati by 13.
New Orleans (+5.5) at Atlanta
I don’t know which of these teams is worse. I don’t know if either of them cares about this game. But I do know that one of them has to win. And one of them is playing at home. Falcons by four.
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Houston
With a win here, the Texans will be assured of a winning record even after the Chiefs bounce them from the playoffs next weekend. So that should feel good. Houston by three.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Cleveland
If the Steelers really were the team that “nobody wanted to see” in the playoffs, it appears everybody’s going to get their wish — courtesy of the Baltimore Ravens. Everybody, that is, for the poor Browns. Angry, angry Pittsburgh by 14.
Tennessee (+6) at Indianapolis
Turns out the answer to the delightful question, “Could the Colts be more of a mess?” is yes. Yes, they really, really can. Don’t you just hate it when bad things happen to nice teams? Lucky for the Colts, the Titans have a reason to lose. Indy by a point.
Washington (+4) at Dallas
The Racists are locked into the NFC four seed. The only question for them this weekend regards which team they’ll lose to in the Wild Card round. Cowboys by a field goal.
Detroit (+1) at Chicago
The Lions aren’t worse than the Bears by much. But they’re worse than the Bears just the same. Chicago by four.
Philadelphia (+3.5) at NY Giants
Complete disarray can be difficult to overcome. Giants by 20.
Tampa Bay (+10.5) at Carolina
A year from now, this may be a compelling matchup. Right now, it’s not. Panthers by nine.
Oakland (+7) at Kansas City
The Raiders couldn’t keep it close with the Chiefs in Oakland four weeks ago. They’re not likely to fare any better in Kansas City. Chiefs by two TDs.
San Diego (+9) at Denver
A win, and the Broncos are the two seed at worst, maybe the one (if Miami can knock off New England). A loss and they probably fall to the five seed. That should be pretty strong motivation to beat a Chargers squad that can’t get out of its own way, don’t you think? Denver by 10.
St. Louis (-3.5) at San Francisco
Yeah, sure. St. Louis. Why not? Rams by six.
Seattle (+6.5) at Arizona
The Seahawks blew their shot at an easy first round trip to Washington with their ridiculous home loss to the Rams last weekend. Now they get the winner of the NFC North championship game. Of course, that all comes after they’re done getting swept in the 2015 season series by the Cardinals. Arizona by a touchdown.
Minnesota (+3) at Green Bay
The Packers should be able to win this game and lock up the NFC North title. But you never know. So I’m going with the hedge pick: Green Bay by a point.
