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Super Bowl Breakdown, Part Two

February 3rd, 2005

So, having come away from my look at the regular season numbers feeling certain that the Patriots can only come away with a win on Sunday, I’m now gonna take a look at post-season stats to see if they change my mind (or at least make me feel like the Eagles can give the Pats a game).

As I mentioned yesterday, it makes sense to me to look at the playoffs as separate from the regular season (to whatever extent such a thing is possible) because the level of play in the post-season is so much higher. That said, I do think it’s important to put the team’s post-season performance into context. So let’s start by looking at how the Patriots and Eagles went into the playoffs, and at who they faced once they got there.

The Patriots finished the regular season 14-2 and went into the playoffs as the second seed in the AFC, a conference that included most of the best teams in professional football this season and that dominated the NFC in head-to-head play throughout. The Eagles finished 13-3 and had clinched the NFC’s top seeding (and, consequently, a guarantee of home-field advantage throughout the playoffs) by week 15. Both teams had a week-one bye. Thereafter, the Pats hosted the AFC’s three-seed, the Indianapolis Colts (who finished the regular season 13-3), then traveled to Pittsburgh to face the conference one-seed Steelers (15-1), while the Eagles hosted the NFC six-seed Minnesota Vikings (8-8) and the two-seed Atlanta Falcons (11-5). You probably don’t need me to point out that the Pats faced a significantly stiffer level of competition in the playoffs than the Eagles. So, while both teams cruised to victory in both of their playoff matches, the achievement is clearly more impressive for the Patriots.

OK, now the numbers.

Offense
The Patriots averaged 30.5 points and 323.5 yards of total offense per game in the playoffs. They averaged 168 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game on the ground, and 155.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game in the air. (That, by the way, is pretty much the definition of a balanced attack.)
The Eagles averaged 27 points and 360.5 yards of total offense. They logged an average of 132.5 yards and .5 touchdowns per game on the ground, and 228 yards and two touchdowns per game in the air. (That is the definition of an unbalanced attack.)

So that looks pretty good for the Pats. But let’s see how the teams achieved those numbers before we draw any conclusions.
The Patriots did it against the defenses ranked first (Pittsburgh) and 19th (Indianapolis) in terms of points allowed and first and 29th in total yards allowed. Pittsburgh was also ranked first against the run and fourth against the pass. Indy was ranked 24th against the run and 31st against the pass. (It’s worth noting, too, that Pittsburgh, which gave up only eight rushing touchdowns during the regular season, gave up two to the Patriots in the AFC championship.)
The Eagles got their numbers against the Ds ranked 14th (Atlanta) and 26th (Minnesota) in points allowed and 14th and 28th in yards allowed. Atlanta was the eighth-best team in the league against the run and 24th against the pass. Minnesota was ranked 21st against the run and 29th against the pass.
Clearly, then, the Pats earned their offensive stats under much tougher conditions, playing better squads than the Eagles, and traveling to face the best D in the league. And still they put up numbers that were at least slightly more impressive.
All told, then, the Pats come out looking much stronger than the Eagles in terms of post-season offensive accomplishment.

Defense
The Patriots gave up an average of 15 points and 332 yards of total offense per game. They allowed 104.5 yards and .5 touchdowns per game on the ground and 227.5 and one touchdown per game in the air.
The Eagles gave up an average of 12 points and 293.5 yards of total offense per game. They allowed 98 yards and one touchdown per game on the ground and 195.5 and .5 touchdowns per game in the air.
There, the numbers come out looking like they favor Philly. But, again, we need to examine where they come from.

The Patriots earned their defensive stats facing off against offenses ranked first (Indianapolis) and 11th (Pittsburgh) in the league in terms of scoring and second and 16th in terms of overall offense. Indianapolis had the league’s 15th-ranked rushing offense and second-ranked passing offense. Pittsburgh had the league’s second-ranked rushing offense and 28th-ranked passing offense.
The Eagles earned their defensive numbers against offenses ranked sixth (Minnesota) and 16th (Atlanta) in scoring and fourth and 20th in total offense. Minnesota had the league’s 18th-ranked rushing offense, and first-ranked passing offense. Atlanta had the league’s first-ranked rushing offense and 30th-ranked passing offense.
So, it appears on the surface that the competition here was just a little bit tougher for the Pats, which makes the overall picture appear closer to even (i.e. the Pats gave up more yards and more points to slightly better teams). But one still has to adjust for the fact that the Pats played their first playoff game against a team that had hosted its first playoff game and their second on the road, while Philadelphia hosted both of its playoff games, including one against an 8-8 team playing its second-consecutive road game.
More important, one has to consider — as I pointed out two weeks ago in correctly predicting that the Eagles would roll over the Falcons — that the Atlanta rushing offense numbers were deceiving. Yes, the Falcons finished the season ranked first in the league in that category, but a lot of that had to do with the fact that Atlanta has a very unusual creature under center in Michael Vick, who is by far the best rushing quarterback in league history. So the Falcons had 524 rushing attempts for 2672 yards, for an average of 5.1 yards per carry during the regular season. But look at Vick’s numbers: He ran 120 times, picking up 902 yards and averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Some of those were called running plays. Others were the result of his amazing ability to scramble on a broken pass play (and the Falcons piss-poor pass offense created a lot of those). So Vick was responsible for 22 percent of his team’s carries and fully one third of their rushing yards. And while there’s not much to be gained by focussing on the fact that without Vick’s rushes the team would have finished 26th in attempts and 20th in total yards (because it’s impossible to say how many more carries their talented running backs might have got without Vick in the mix), it is meaningful to look at the fact that Atlanta’s running backs averaged only 4.3 yards per carry. That’s still a good number, but it ain’t 5.1. In fact, 4.3 would have put Atlanta in a four-way tie for 10th in the league, along with Indianapolis, Green Bay and St. Louis (all playoff teams, but all losers by no later than the second round).
So Philly’s competition in the NFC Championship, in reality, was significantly less stiff than the Patriots’ AFC Championship competition. And there, all illusions of equality melt away. The Pats simply performed better against tougher teams in the playoffs.

One more thing to consider right now: Giveaway/takeaway ratio.
The Pats and Eagles were both quite good in this regard during the regular season. The Pats finished with a +10 while the Eagles finished with a +11. In the playoffs, however, the numbers have been entirely lopsided. The Patriots are +7. They never once turned the ball over in either playoff matchup, despite the fact that they were up against teams that finished the season at +20 (Indianapolis) and +12 (Pittsburgh). The Eagles are +2, having taken the ball away three times and given it up once. And the teams they faced were hardly formidable in that area. Minnesota, in fact, finished the regular season with a -2, while Atlanta managed to come out at +3.
Clearly, the Patriots are performing better in this area. And this could be a key factor. NFL games are won and lost on the turnover ratio. If the Pats continue their habit of taking the ball away 3.5 times per game and giving it away never, they’ll cruise to victory.

In the end, I think the Patriots will maintain their dominance in the giveaway/takeaway area, not because I believe the Eagles will collapse, but because of the specific dynamics of how Super Bowls tend to go. The reason blowouts are fairly common in the Super Bowl is that there is no next week. Teams that get behind have to take chances to catch up. And the bigger the chance you take, the bigger the potential for creating a big play, the more likely you are to make a big mistake and give the ball away. I see the Pats getting out ahead early, but the Eagles keeping it to within four points or so through the first half. I expect the Pats to extend their lead to around 11 by midway through the third quarter, however, and after that, it could get ugly. I’ll get into exactly what I think will happen in this game tomorrow when I run through the intangibles and other nonsense. But my conclusion will remain what the numbers dictate: a Patriots win.

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