Week Six Picks
Well, at least my season started on a positive note. And I’ll always have that, for whatever little it’s worth.
As for right now, I’m mired in mediocrity. I finished week five 9-5 straight up, 7-7 against the spread. Nothing to weep over (especially for someone who doesn’t actually gamble), but not exactly bragging material. So, here I stand, 47-30 (.610) straight up, 36-41 (.468) against the spread.
Let’s see if I can’t figure out a way to do even worse this week.
Here’s what not to expect.
Denver (-7) at San Diego
I don’t think the Chargers are likely to lose by way of a late-game collapse this week. And that would be a nice change of pace, one supposes, except for the likelihood that San Diego will lose in a much more conventional manner. I don’t think it’s ever a good idea to give a touchdown to the home team in a division matchup on a short week, though. So let’s go with Denver by six.
Cincinnati (+9) at New England
I don’t know if you’ve heard about this, but, um, Tom Brady‘s back. Got his season off to a nice little start last weekend, too. And that’s not such great news for the Bengals’ D, which has not fared well in games against strong opponents so far this season. Here’s what the big three predictive stats say: Scoring differential, Patriots +5.8; passer rating differential, Patriots, +10.3; takeaway/giveaway differential, Patriots +2. (And let’s not forget that New England’s stats are calculated based on four out of five games played without Brady.) Add in that the Bengals are on the road for a second straight week, and consider that the Bengals are no better at stopping the run (4.4 yards per carry) than they are at stopping the pass, and I think you get a fairly comfortable win for the Patriots. New England by two touchdowns.
Baltimore (+3) at NY Giants
The Ravens open their two-week residency in the Meadowlands with a close loss to the better of the New Jersey teams. Giants by a point.
Carolina (-3) at New Orleans
The Panthers expect to have Cam Newton back on the field for this game. That should get the job done. Panthers by four.
Pittsburgh (-7.5) at Miami
The Steelers will be ahead two scores before the home fans have had a chance to catch up with the Dolphins’ shifting roster. Pittsburgh by 17.
Jacksonville (+2.5) at Chicago
That’s right. Brian Hoyer. Bears by a field goal.
San Francisco (+8) at Buffalo
I want Colin Kaepernick to succeed because I admire the political stance he’s taken. Trouble is, this is a football game, not a debate. And the truth about Kaepernick is that he’s just not that good at football. The other difficult truth facing the 49ers is that it doesn’t matter who you start at quarterback (or any offensive position) when your biggest problem is the complete inability of your D to stop the opposing team’s run game. I have hunch that might pose a bit of a problem for San Francisco here. Bills by 10.
Los Angeles (+3.5) at Detroit
When neither team has a defense, you go with the one that has an actual offense. Especially if that team is at home. Lions by six.
Cleveland (+7) at Tennessee
If the Browns can get through an entire game with the same guy taking snaps, that’ll be a kind of victory in itself. Titans by nine.
Philadelphia (-2) at Washington
I know it’s the Eagles’ second straight road game (and the first didn’t go so well) and that it’s a division match. But I just have a hard time seeing Philadelphia dropping this one, particularly given Washington’s ineffectiveness against the run. Eagles by a field goal.
Kansas City (+1) at Oakland
Maybe Kansas City will come back from its early bye week having sprouted a run defense. But, you know, probably not. Oakland by four.
Atlanta (+6.5) at Seattle
Back-to-back road games are tough no matter what. Traveling to face Denver’s D one week and Seattle’s the next is just plain murder. And with the Seahawks coming off their bye, to boot. Kinda makes you wonder what the Falcons did to offend the schedule makers. Atlanta was able to overcome the first part of the challenge (thanks in part to the fact that Denver was starting a rookie QB who clearly isn’t quite NFL ready). I have a hard time believing they’ll be able to repeat that performance. But neither am I inclined to think Atlanta gets routed. Seahawks by three.
Dallas (+4) at Green Bay
If you look just at the aggregate stats, it appears Dallas is playing better football than Green Bay right now. If you look at the level of competition each team has faced, I’m not sure that conclusion holds up. Packers by a field goal.
Indianapolis (+3) at Houston
I don’t know how to pick this game, because I’m just not sure which of these teams has a greater propensity for finding ways to lose. So I’ll take the home team. By a point.
NY Jets (+8) at Arizona
The Jets season officially comes to a very early end. Cardinals by 10.
