Week Eight Picks
If I had half a brain, I’d quit now before things get any uglier.
But I don’t.
Even in the face of a week seven finish of 8-6-1 straight up, 6-9 against the spread, I feel somehow compelled to soldier on. Because, you know, records of 63-43-1 (.593) straight up and 48-58-1 (.453) against the spread clearly are something one needs to build on.
Sigh.
Here’s what not to expect in week eight.
Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tennessee
The Titans defense goes into this game with six interceptions on the season. How much you want to bet they improve that total by 50 percent here? Tennessee by a touchdown.
Washington (+3) vs Cincinnati at Twickenham Stadium, London
Statistically speaking, these teams are virtually identical. (It’s a bit more nuanced than that, but it pretty much all comes out even.) Until you get to takeaway/giveaway differential, where the Bengals have a +5 advantage (Bengals +3, Racists -2). And since there’s no real home team in this game, I’ll hitch my wagon to that minor point of differentiation. Bengals by four.
Detroit (+2.5) at Houston
If the Lions had a ground game, they’d win this one easily. They don’t. So it’ll be a hard-fought victory. Detroit by two.
Seattle (-3) at New Orleans
The Seahawks offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up. But the Saints D is about as sure a cure for that condition as you’ll find. And you can’t compensate for an awful D by putting up a ton of points in a game against Seattle. Seahawks by nine.
Arizona (+3) at Carolina
There’s no question but that the Cardinals are the better team in this match. And still … the Panthers are at home following a bye while the Cardinals are traveling across the country on the heels of a demoralizing slog of a five-quarter struggle for nothing. So I think I’ll look for the Panthers to win a close one. Carolina by a point.
New England (-6.5) at Buffalo
Revenge, blah, blah, blah. The Patriots don’t need a win here to avenge their only loss of the season, a game in which they barely participated. Tom Brady doesn’t need to pad his incredible stats here as part of some grand scheme to teach the league a lesson. Team and quarterback alike need a win here because the outcome of this game determines whether the Patriots organization can start designing its AFC East Champion T-shirts and caps while the coaches and players focus on capturing the one seed, or the Pats have to travel through the rest of the season with the Bills sitting just off their rear bumper. Regardless of motivation, I expect New England’s in for a tougher fight than many in Patriots Nation are counting on. The predictive stats (calculated based on four Pats games played without Brady), go like this: Scoring differential, Patriots +0.9; passer rating differential, Patriots +8.4; takeaway/giveaway differential, Bills +5. In Foxborough, that would point to a close Patriots win. In Buffalo, it points to a toss up. And still, with the Bills banged up, and Brady back in the mix, I expect New England to come out on top. It’ll be a game until very near the end, but it will end with the Patriots ahead by seven.
NY Jets (-3.5) at Cleveland
The Browns have to win a game at some point, right? Eh, maybe not. But what do I have to lose? I’m gonna be rooting for Cleveland anyhow. Browns by a field goal.
Oakland (+1) at Tampa Bay
No defense will be played in this game. Oakland by four.
Kansas City (-2.5) at Indianapolis
This would be a blowout in Missouri. But it’s not being played in Missouri. Chiefs by six.
San Diego (+5.5) at Denver
The Chargers managed to overcome a struggling Broncos squad in San Diego two weeks ago. I suspect Denver’s struggles are over, at least for the nonce. The Broncos turn the tables and even up the season series with an eight-point win.
Green Bay (+3) at Atlanta
Another game in which I don’t expect to see much by way of defense. When all the scoring is done, I think we’ll find the home team on top by four.
Philadelphia (+4.5) at Dallas
By the time the Eagles get to host a rematch in week 17, the Cowboys will have sewn up the NFC East. This game, however, should be a battle to the very end. Dallas by three.
Minnesota (-5.5) at Chicago
In which Jay Cutler resumes getting sacked all over the field. Well, maybe not all over the field. Just the Bears side of it. Vikings by 17.
