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Week Eleven Picks

November 16th, 2017

I don’t have the time or energy to write another intro, so I’m just tacking the rest of my picks on to the one that I posted Thursday, and got half right.

Last week. I went 12-2 straight up (not awful), 6-7-1 against the spread (awful). For the season, that gets me to 96-50 (.658) straight up and 71-69-6 (.507) with the points.

Here’s what not to expect in week 11.

Tennessee (+7) at Pittsburgh
The Titans are good enough to beat the Steelers. In Nashville. In Pittsburgh, I’m not so sure. In Pittsburgh on a Thursday night? I just can’t see it. I don’t see either of these teams having much success moving the ball on the ground in this game. I think that’s a bigger problem for Tennessee than it is for Pittsburgh. And I think unless the Titans D can set their offense up with a couple of big takeaways (which isn’t completely outside the realm of possibility), Tennessee’s destined to come up just short. Steelers by four.

Detroit (-3) at Chicago
Seems like the Lions ought to be just good enough to come out ahead in this game. But when I say just, I mean maybe just just. Detroit wins, but by just a point.

Kansas City (-10.5) at NY Giants
There’s a very good chance the Chiefs won’t lose another game until January, which is when they’ll next play a good team. There’s virtually a 100 percent chance the Chiefs won’t lose until week 12, which is when they’ll next play something resembling an NFL team. Kansas City by 17.

Tampa Bay (+1) at Miami
The hurricane delay game gets played just in time for absolutely no one to care. Tampa by two.

Baltimore (-2) at Green Bay
One of these teams is probably going to win this game. I think maybe it’ll be the one that sometimes has a defense. Ravens by a point.

LA Rams (+2.5) at Minnesota
The winner of this game retains a shot at the NFC two seed, while the loser takes a step toward the four. If I were smart, I’d probably pick the home team. But I’m not smart, so I’m going with the better team. Rams by a field goal.

Arizona (+1) at Houston
Ugh. I’m taking way too many road teams. But Tom Savage is just so completely awful. Cardinals by a point.

Jacksonville (-7.5) at Cleveland
Someone please stop me from picking all the road teams. Please, please, please. No, I didn’t mean you, Browns. You’re bloody impossible. Jaguars by 13.

Washington (+7.5) at New Orleans
Thank you, Saints, for being both the better team and the home team. I needed one of these. New Orleans by 10.

Buffalo (+4) at LA Chargers
Well, it appears the Chargers will have their starting quarterback on the field. And that they’ll be trying. Los Angeles by six.

Cincinnati (+2.5) at Denver
I really have no idea which of these two teams is worse. So I’m taking the home team to earn the honor of picking later in the 2018 draft. Broncos by two.

New England (-7) vs. Oakland at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
The worst pass defense in the NFL vs. the greatest quarterback of all time. There’s a lot more one could say about this game. But none of it favors Oakland. So I’m just not sure there’s anything more one needs to say. New England by two touchdowns.

Philadelphia (-4) at Dallas
This should pretty much do it for the NFC East. Eagles by a touchdown.

Atlanta (+3) at Seattle
The Seahawks aren’t better than the Falcons by much. But they’re better just the same. Seattle by three.

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