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Week Eight Picks

October 24th, 2019

I’ll take the 11-3 picking straight up in week seven. That feels pretty OK. The 7-7 vs. the spread? Meh.

I’m at 71-34-1 (.675) straight up so far this season, 53-52-1 (.505) with the points.

A correction to that slightly better than average straight up record no doubt is just around the corner.

Here’s what not to expect in week eight

Washington (+16.5) at Minnesota
Not much to stay up for here, I’m afraid. Unless you’re a Vikings fan. In which case, enjoy. The good news for the rest of us is that given the Racists’ complete inability to so much as slow down the run and the run-first offensive philosophy of the Vikings, we can probably expect the ball to stay on the ground and the game clock to keep ticking. Minnesota by 21.

Denver (+5.5) at Indianapolis
I don’t think I’ll know what I really think of the Colts until at least week 12. Fortunately, I already know what I think of the Broncos. The Denver D might yet have some pride, though. Colts by a field goal.

NY Giants (+7) at Detroit
The Lions might not be able to find a way to disappoint themselves and their fans this week. That could be at least one semi-interesting thing about this came. Or not. I don’t know. Detroit by four.

Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Tennessee
This is … well, it’s a game that’s probably going to happen. I mean, I’m not sure there’s anything anyone can do to stop it. I guess Tennessee sort of has a defense. Titans by three.

LA Chargers (+4) at Chicago
One of these teams is going to have to get out of its own way this week. Since the home team is probably the better team (though not by much), I gonna guess it’s them. Bears by a point.

Seattle (-6.5) at Atlanta
The Seahawks have enough offense to win the NFC West if they can figure out how to play D. The Falcons have a draft to prepare for. Seattle by nine.

NY Jets (+6) at Jacksonville
The fiasco on Monday night felt like the kind of game that ends up putting a team on its heels for weeks. The Jaguars aren’t the Patriots. But right now it seems like Blinky, Pinky, Inky and Clyde could probably get the job done against Pac-Sam Darnold. Jacksonville by seven.

Philadelphia (+1.5) at Buffalo
This seems like everyone’s pet upset pick of the week. Like maybe everyone saw the Bills get off to a slow start against the Dolphins last week and concluded Buffalo maybe isn’t that good. And maybe they’re not. But I think they’re better than the Eagles. Bills by a field goal.

Cincinnati (+13) vs. LA Rams at Wembley Stadium, London
No one needs me to tell them the Bengals are awful, right? Rams by 17.

Arizona (+10.5) at New Orleans
For the last three weeks, the Cardinals slipped past weak opponents. Now they return to NFL play. Saints by 14.

Carolina (+5.5) at San Francisco
There’s a chance the 49ers give this one away by committing turnovers at exactly the wrong times. But it’s only an outside chance. I’m not picking based on maybes. San Francisco by nine.

Oakland (+6.5) at Houston
A second straight road game, and a second straight road loss, for the Raiders. Texans by four.

Cleveland (+13) at New England
Thirteen, huh? Seems reasonable. I mean, look, here are your big three predictive stats: Passer rating differential, Patriots +47.2; scoring differential, Patriots +15.4; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +20. In Cleveland, maybe that points to a margin of victory of less than two TDs. Maybe. In Foxborough, it points to a massacre. And that’s even before you drill down a bit and get to this detail.

There’s not a whole lot of room for hope here if you’re a Browns fan. Patriots by 27

Green Bay (-4) at Kansas City
When you’re all offense and suddenly you’ve got maybe two thirds of a quarterback, you’ve got yourself a problem. Packers by six.

Miami (+14) at Pittsburgh
Somebody at some point thought this game belonged in prime time. That’s curious. Steelers by 20.

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