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Week Seven Picks, Part One

October 21st, 2005

There’s no way I’m gonna wrap up all my picks before the 7 p.m. kickoff of the rescheduled Kansas City/Miami game tonight. So here’s what I’ve got to say on that one. The rest will come tomorrow.

Kansas City (+2) at Miami
I was leaning toward Miami in this game even before it got rescheduled. Now that the Chiefs have had to waste a practice day scrambling to get to South Florida to play two days ahead of schedule, it’s a gimme. Kansas City’s defense, which was supposed to be much improved this season, simply hasn’t been. The Chiefs are giving up 373 yards and 22.4 points per game. They do OK against the run (allowing just 95 yards per game), but they can’t stop the pass to save their lives (278 yards per game). The Dolphins D isn’t the best in the league, but it’s a lot better than that. The Fins give up significantly fewer total yards per game (292) and about a field goal less (19.6 points). They’re slightly worse than Kansas City vs. the run (101.6 yards per game), but a lot better vs. the pass (190.4). Offensively, the teams aren’t that far apart. Miami’s has passed for 10 more yards per game than Kansas City (213.6 vs. 203.6), while the Chiefs’ rushing offense has outpaced the Fins’ by about 20 yards a game (127.4 to 107.6), for a net difference of 9.8 yards in the Chiefs’ favor. The Chiefs have, however, put up 23.8 points per game to the Dolphins’ 19. That’s a pretty big gap and worth considering. Still, it’s not a gap that the defensive difference and home field don’t erase. And, overall, the Chiefs haven’t impressed me in any way, while the Dolphins have played some halfway decent football against some good opponents. I’m taking the Fins and giving the points.

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