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NFL Week Eleven Picks

November 22nd, 2020

I suppose I could have done worse in week 10. Well, I could have picking straight up, anyhow. Against the spread? I’d have fared better throwing darts.

I was 10-4 straight up, 4-9-1 with the points. Ugh.

That puts me at 95-51-1 (.650) straight up, 64-78-5 (.452) against the spread.

So far this week, I’m 1-0, 0-1 respectively.

Here’s what not to expect through the remainder of the week.

Philadelphia (+2.5) at Cleveland
In a lot of ways, the Browns are as solidly mediocre a football team as the Eagles. Cleveland has a much better win-loss record than Philadelphia largely because the Browns offense is able to control the ground game and, more important, hold on to the ball. That’s the difference this season, and the difference in t his game. Cleveland by a touchdown.

Atlanta (+3.5) at New Orleans
Yes, it does seem like the Falcons are bad enough that they should be getting more than the standard three from a division rival that just lost its starting quarterback. Also, the Saints have a strong D. New Orleans by six.

Cincinnati (+1.5) at Washington
If one of these teams can move the ball on the ground, they’ll get the win. I’m not sure either can. So I’m taking the home team and thinking the margin’s a field goal.

Detroit (-2) at Carolina
Neither of these teams can be counted on to win. But one of them has to lose. And the home team does a better job of hanging on to the ball. So let’s go with them. Carolina by a point.

Tennessee (+6) at Baltimore
I’m not sure the Ravens should be giving six to anybody at this point. Baltimore by three.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Jacksonville
Under most circumstances, a road team giving more than two scores should give one pause. But not under these circumstances. The Jaguars are terrible. Steelers by 14.

New England (-2.5) at Houston
The league’s second most productive rushing offense takes on its worst run D. I’m not sure there’s much more that needs saying. New England by 10.

Miami (-3.5) at Denver
Here are two teams moving in opposite directions. Miami by seven.

NY Jets (+9.5) at LA Chargers
The Jets continue their aggressive run at 0-16. Chargers by 13.

Green Bay (+1.5) at Indianapolis
Neither of these teams lacks for offense. The home team also has a D. And balance wins in the NFL. Colts by four.

Dallas (+7) at Minnesota
This looked like a pretty good matchup back in the … well, you know, the mid-’70s. Neither of these team is good. One of them is terrible. Vikings by 10.

Kansas City (-7.5) at Las Vegas
The Chiefs only loss of the season came at the hands of the Raiders. In Kansas City. Maybe the Chiefs avenge that loss here. But if Kansas City wins, it won’t be by more than a touchdown in a road game against a strong division rival. And maybe it won’t be at all. Raiders by a point.

LA Rams (+4) at Tampa Bay
This is probably the best game of the week with strength matching up with strength in virtually every aspect of the game. Which makes it almost impossible to predict. So I’ll just go home team by three and look forward to seeing how it plays out.

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