NFL 2021 Week Three Picks
I’m off to an even uglier than usual start picking football games this season. I followed my spectacular week one — 6-10 straight up, 8-8 against the spread — with a magnificent week two, 9-7 straight up, 5-10-1 with the points.
That works out to 15-17 (.469) straight up, 13-18-1 (.422) against the spread.
But I’m sure my 1-0 start across the board in week three means I’m on the verge of righting the ship. Probably.
Here’s what not to expect in the remainder of this week’s games.
Washington (+7.5) at Buffalo
This is what makes picking football games early in the season close to impossible. Thus far, neither of these teams appears to be what we expected. But every team is going to have an outlier game or two at some point in a season, and if they come early, they make a muddle of your perceptions. I suspect that if this game were being played in November, I wouldn’t hesitate to give the seven and a half. Right now? Bills by four.
Chicago (+7) at Cleveland
The Browns should not only win but cover with relative ease. So you know they won’t. Cleveland by a field goal.
Baltimore (-8) at Detroit
It’s reasonable to expect a bit of a letdown game for the Ravens. It’s not reasonable to think the Lions can capitalize. Baltimore by 10.
Indianapolis (+5) at Tennessee
I’m not at all sure what to make of the Titans. But I know the Colts are foundering. Tennessee by six.
LA Chargers (+6.5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs sure look to me like a team suffering from a hangover. But I don’t think they’re done fighting quite yet. Kansas City puts up the winning points late in what I expect to be a banger. Chiefs by a point.
New Orleans (+3) at New England
Two years ago, this matchup would have been played in primetime, and we’d have gone in expecting an airshow. this season it’s reasonable to expect a fairly low-scoring affair featuring enough missed opportunities to drive fans of both teams crazy. The home team tacks on a late field goal that makes its victory appear less narrow. New England by six.
Atlanta (+3) at NY Giants
There have been moments this season when both the Falcons and the Giants have looked kind of OK. Moments. New Jersey by four.
Cincinnati (+3) at Pittsburgh
This game doesn’t look like much, but its outcome could have meaningful implications for the 2022 draft. Steelers by six.
Arizona (-7.5) at Jacksonville
You may find this shocking, but the Jaguars are not very good. At all. Cardinals by nine.
NY Jets (+10.5) at Denver
You may find this shocking, but the Jets … . Oh, did I just use this line about the Jaguars? Crap! Broncos by 17.
Miami (+4) at Las Vegas
As the season goes on, fans in New England are going to become more and more unhappy about the Patriots’ week one gift to the visiting Dolphins. Raiders by seven.
Tampa Bay (-1.5) at LA Rams
It might be that the 2021 Rams feature a strong pass defense. And if that’s really the case, this could prove a difficult matchup for a Bucs offense that has been getting it done mostly through the air thus far this season. Or it might be that the Rams have yet to face a team with a productive passing attack. I suspect we’ll have a clear picture by halftime. Tampa by three.
Seattle (-1.5) at Minnesota
There’s a part of me that has already come to the conclusion that the Vikings are never turning this season around. It’s the part that’s writing this pick. Seattle by four.
Green Bay (+3.5) at San Francisco
Last week’s results may have raised hopes in Green Bay. But I don’t live in Green Bay. Niners by a touchdown.
Philadelphia (+4) at Dallas
Yeah, the Cowboys are probably the better team. And that will probably show in the final standings. But this is still a division game. And the Eagles are still in the fight. Dallas wins (late) by three.
