Week Fifteen, Part 1, the Saturday Games
OK, so here’s the deal: Not that you care, but I’ve got holiday baking to do, and I’ve gotta make and freeze my ravioli for Christmas dinner (made my gravy last weekend and, man, I’ve gotta tell you it came out amazing). Plus, I’m planning to catch these games while I work. So I’m clearly not gonna get to all of this week’s games before sometime later this afternoon. Figured I’d go on the record now about today’s batch and finish the rest when I can break away from the oven for a bit. Brutal damned week overall. Today, not so bad. Here’s what I see happening this afternoon and tonight.
Tampa Bay (+4.5) at New England
Earlier in the season, I noted (repeatedly) here and elsewhere my opinion that the Patriots were set to peak as a team in December and January. Three weeks ago, in correctly predicting the Pats’ loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, I said that loss would be their last of the regular season. Here’s the game that puts both of those predictions, and the Pats, to the test. New England should win this game. The Pats defense has been coming on of late. Corey Dillon is back in form and is running the ball as well and as dangerously as he ever has, creating situations in which Tom Brady’s terrific play boosts the Pats to bigger leads/margins of victory rather than simply getting the team by. And while the Bucs D has been formidable this season (and no less so than ever in last week’s surprise victory at Carolina), I don’t see it being quite enough to stop the Patriots offense in Foxboro. I also think the Patriots pass rush, led by the newly healthy Richard Seymour, will be able to get after Chris Simms (who still sucks) and force him to make some costly mistakes. Look for New England to finally log a few picks and to win this one by about a field goal. And then look for the guy at the desk next to yours to hop quick as lightning back on the Patriots bandwagon and act like he never got off.
Kansas City (+3) at NY Giants
Yeah, I’ve predicted a couple of times this season that it was all over for the Chiefs. And they did find a way to lose last week at Dallas. But it’s hard to imagine Kansas City not winning this game. The Giants are going to be without middle linebacker Antonio Pierce, who has become a leader off their D and who is one of their most important weapons against the run, which makes it impossible to believe they’re gonna be able to control Chiefs running back Larry Johnson. The Giants also may have to play without outstanding offensive linemen Kareem McKenzie and Luke Petitgout. If those tackles can’t go, and if their backups are unable to step in and be effective, Eli Manning could potentially have company in the backfield all afternoon. That won’t help a team trying to keep up with Kansas City’s productive offense. Still, I’m taking the Giants here. Why? It’s partly gut. It’s partly a continuing belief that Kansas City just isn’t that good. And it’s partly to do with the fact that Dallas has no offensive line at all, gave up obscene numbers to Johnson (143 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries, plus three catches for 28 yards) and the Chiefs’ offense a week ago and still came out on top. So there’s that. Like the Cowboys did last wee, the Giants beat the Chiefs with a late score. New York wins by a field goal.
Denver (-9) at Buffalo
The Bills are officially done for the season. And one has to imagine Buffalo is also all but officially done with Mike Mularkey and Tom Donahoe. I heard Gil Brandt saying on Sirius NFL Radio a few weeks back that his friend Marv Levy wants to get back into the league. Maybe the Bills will be smart enough in the off-season to make that happen. Who knows? For this week, the Bills are nothing more than the next step on Denver’s path to a playoff bye week and, ultimately (yeeeesh) the Super Bowl. And, ah, sure, I’ll give the points. Why not?
