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NFL 2021 Week Eleven Picks

November 21st, 2021

Indianapolis (+7) at Buffalo
The Colts offense is balanced enough to be able to pose a challenge to the Bills D. But the Indy defense, while solid, can struggle to stop the run. I think this game is close throughout, which means that a single odd bounce of the ball can potentially determine the outcome. But I expect Buffalo to come out on top. Let’s figure by four.

Baltimore (-5) at Chicago
The Ravens are an inconsistent team. The Bears are consistently disappointing. Baltimore by a field goal.

Detroit (+12.5) at Cleveland
Last weekend’s tie is probably about the best outcome the Lions can hope for this season. But the Browns are a mess. So I’m thinking Cleveland by six.

Houston (+10) at Tennessee
There’s no such thing as a trap game between divisional rivals. And even if the Titans aren’t fully focused and start slow, they’ll get their legs under them quickly enough. Tennessee by 17.

Green Bay (-1) at Minnesota
I’m not nearly impressed enough with the 2021 Packers to take them in an away game against a division rival with its back against the wall. Green Bay is going to win the NFC North. But they’re not wrapping it up this weekend. Vikings by a field goal.

Miami (-3.5) at NY Jets
I can’t come up with a single meaningful positive thing to say about either of these teams. They’re both terrible. And probably the home team is terrible-er. But who knows. Dolphins by a point.

New Orleans (+2.5) at Philadelphia
I don’t know what to make of the Saints. I also don’t know that I trust the Eagles to win more than one game in a row. This is a conundrum. I’m gonna look for Philly to continue to keep the ball on the ground. If they can pull it off, the Eagles should get a win. Here again, though, I suspect it’s by no more than a single point.

Washington (+3.5) at Carolina
I definitely don’t believe Brand X (now with less defense!) can win more than one game in a row. Panthers by six.

San Francisco (-6.5) at Jacksonville
If the Niners were 7-2 and at risk of looking past this game, I’d actually be tempted to take the Jaguars here. But San Francisco is in no position to look past any opponent. Still, it’s an early game on the East Coast after a short week. So I’m thinking 49ers by four.

Cincinnati (-1.5) at Las Vegas
Given the inability of either of these teams to stop the run, this game could be over by like 5:30 eastern time. I don’t know who wins. I’m going home team by a field goal.

Dallas (+2.5) at Kansas City
Everybody wants to be excited about Kansas City again. Wake me when they develop a defense. Cowboys by three.

Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle
The Cardinals can’t lose to the weakest team in their division and hope to hold off the Rams down the stretch. Arizona by six.

Pittsburgh (+5.5) at LA Chargers
This mediocre matchup is one of those games in which I’d take the home team in either stadium. Chargers by four.

NY Giants (+11) at Tampa Bay
There may be a thing or two Tom Brady wants to work out in this game. Buccaneers by 14.

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