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NFL 2021 Week Thirteen Picks, Post Thursday Night

December 5th, 2021

Tampa Bay (-10.5) at Atlanta
I hate, hate, hate big speads in divisional games. Because, yes, the Falcons are terrible. And OK, the Buccaneers stomped on the Falcons when they met in Tampa in week two. But weird things happen in meetings between teams that know each other as well as these two. I’m gonna say Tampa by nine, but I won’t be surprised at all if it turns into a 45-0 blowout.

Arizona (-7.5) at Chicago
The Cardinals might be the best team in the league. They certainly, and by no small margin, the best team in the league that has ever called Chicago home. Here they come to take their city back. Arizona by 13.

LA Chargers (+3) at Cincinnati
The Chargers can be dangerous on any given week, but they’re ultimately just another middle-of-the-pack team. The Bengals are a better than average squad with a knack for shooting themselves in the foot. Given that the inconsistent visitors are playing their second straight road game and traveling most of the way across the country to do it, I’m thinking inconsistent home team by six.

Minnesota (-7) at Detroit
Who cares? Vikings by three.

NY Giants (+6.5) at Miami
No, the Dolphins are not for real. Stop. You’re making yourself look silly. But, uh, the Giants are no real threat to anyone. Miami by seven.

Philadelphia (-5) at NY Jets
The Eagles have a major identity crisis happening. They’re a different team every week. This week, they’re the team that manages to let the Jets hang around all afternoon before pulling out a three-point victory late.

Indianapolis (-10) at Houston
Oh, good, another divisional game with a double-digit spread in favor of the visitors. Then again, Indy did win the last meeting with Houston by four TDs. Colts by 14.

Washington (+1.5) at Las Vegas
I’m not sure there’s any way to know which version of either of these teams is going to show up. So I’ll just take the home team to win it by the default three.

Jacksonville (+13) at LA Rams
Thirteen? Seriously? That’s all I have to give? Count me in. Rams by three TDs.

Baltimore (-4.5) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers are actually worse than you think. Ravens by six.

San Francisco (-3) at Seattle
A lot has changed since these teams met in San Francisco back in week four. And none of it bodes well for Seatlle. Niners by six.

Denver (+9) at Kansas City
The Broncos struggle against strong opposition. That’s not a great starting place for this match. Kansas City by seven.

New England (+3) at Buffalo
There’s a lot riding on whether Kyle Dugger’s positive Covid test was the result of a bad break or an indication that he’s a self-centered asshole. For a number of reasons, I’m rooting for bad break. The Patriots need to be able to limit the Bills’ passing offense. If Dugger’s on the field, allowing the New England D to operate as it has through the Patriots’ six-game win streak, New England should win by seven. If he isn’t, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on the New England pass rush. Still, I suspect they’re up to the task. So as long as the Patriots O can move the ball consistently on the ground, I still think New England can come out ahead. But maybe by more like a single point. In either case, I’m looking for the underdog visitors to come away with a win.

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